brooklynwx99

the GEFS has made pretty massive changes in the last day after it picked up on that 50/50... much more blocking and the Pacific is much improved now that it's picking up on the effect the Siberian TPV and +EAMT

absolutely comical for one model cycle. this is why we were saying not to worry for the 15th onward. the models are adjusting to the favorable base state

the issue is that the GEFS completely whiffed on an anomalous 50/50... this 50/50 aids in the development of blocking, so it's easy to see why the GEFS looked crappy for a while given that it was missing this feature

to put into further perspective how bad of a miss this is, here are the changes by day 10: the stronger 50/50 leads to the cutter getting shunted slightly south, which leads to WAA right into the Davis Strait that amplifies blocking throughout the pole. I think the reason for the GEFS's crappy presentation before was due to the complete mishandling of this feature

this is a pretty spectacular model fail by the GFS in the mid-range over the N ATL... completely misses the formation of a massive 50/50 this obviously has big implications on both the impacts of the next system and the evolution of the block as a whole

yeah this event definitely favors SNE... mainly towards CT

it'll be really interesting to see today's 12z runs given the trends that we've seen over the last model cycle wrt the possible event on the 12th. i wasn't too hot on this event yesterday given the lack of support, but there's been a pretty dramatic trend towards more amplification given a farther W Plains ridge, which we can attribute to stronger blocking towards Greenland certainly not time to lock anything in at this point, but I think it's safe to say that modeling has made a large trend towards a more amplified solution like the CMC... obviously the CMC itself is the highest ceiling outcome, but with a 1040-50 antecedent HP in Canada, it would certainly be cold enough along with a very low sun angle. obviously, this early in the year, slightly inland is favored

it'll be really interesting to see today's 12z runs given the trends that we've seen over the last model cycle wrt the possible event on the 12th. i wasn't too hot on this event yesterday given the lack of support, but there's been a pretty dramatic trend towards more amplification given a farther W Plains ridge, which we can attribute to stronger blocking towards Greenland certainly not time to lock anything in at this point, but I think it's safe to say that modeling has made a large trend towards a more amplified solution like the CMC... obviously the CMC itself is the highest ceiling outcome, but with a 1040-50 antecedent HP in Canada, it would certainly be cold enough along with a very low sun angle. obviously, this early in the year, slightly inland is favored

here is the GEFS trend since 18z last evening. night and day out west

lemme get it straight... people are hemming and hawing about the GEFS being crappy, and as soon as it begins to look ten times better out west, the mood gets worse? this is what the complaints are about. i mean, come on and yes, it's moving forward in time. this is right after the cutter next week

more Pacific improvements inside of day 10 on the 18z GEFS

yeah, it's 6, forgot to divide by 2 haha and the two little PV lobes in northern Canada. absolute chaos

@40/70 Benchmark what's the wavenumber on this one? 12? straight up grotesque

the favorable window was always in the latter half of the month, though. I personally said after the 15th a couple weeks ago

I'm not so sure about that. the pattern that we're likely to enter during the second half of the month looks pretty damn good... not sure what else to say about that. all three major ensembles agree on it, and I'm pretty certain that there would be good chances for significant events could it blow up, sure, but you can say that about literally every pattern. it's a cop-out and it's based on nothing more than anecdotes and feelings if you'd rather be pessimistic for whatever reason, that's your prerogative, i guess if you can actually explain why you feel the bolded above, then that's fine, but I don't think there's any actual meteorological backing behind it

yeah, but you could make the same argument saying that it could change in a more favorable way like the GEFS this afternoon. nobody really knows the glass half empty approach is much more prevalent here though

yeah, it looks like this before anyone panics lmao. positive anomalies in all the right places

we should ignore the model with the highest skill score for the one that got "upgraded" for worse results

look at this evolution over the pole on the OP. what in the fuck even is that dude i can't trust this thing when it does wonky crap like that

ULL versus anomalous WB -NAO over the Davis Strait at 6 days out. this is going to be fun

not putting any stock in this, but it's incredible how the GFS finds every conceivable way to screw some of the pattern features up. not sure if I've ever seen a ULL over the Davis Strait in the middle of a block

you know there’s a reason why you’re five posted, right?

only kind of annoying part is that the GEFS is so underdispersive that it'll make the same shift as the OP. one of my biggest LR forecasting pet peeves

lmao just a wholesale change in the handling of the -NAO... this one makes much more sense IMO

EPS looks amazing after the 12-14th system... strong blocking remains over the Davis Strait and the Pacific is vastly improved. everything still looks on track for the 15th onward