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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    GEFS extended control had a… fun outcome for next weekend last night.
  2. NorthArlington101
    18z GFS more or less holds for two snow showers Sunday for parts of our area - a light one Sunday morning, and a heavier one Sunday night. It's the only model really showing anything that might allow anyone to nickel and dime, but beggars can't be choosers.
  3. NorthArlington101
    also has a squall/snow shower come through later in the evening, leaving us with honestly a moderately interesting snow map. Thread???
  4. NorthArlington101
    can move this to the short-range thread after this cycle, but GFS has the snow showers push through around 2am-5am, so maximizing any stickage. Temps are good enough - could dust everywhere but downtown proper.
  5. NorthArlington101
    made modest tweaks upwards based on good vibes - will probably regret it!
  6. NorthArlington101
    Only checked after I posted - but the 12k NAM, FV3, and RGEM are all "in" for some snow showers. RGEM illustrates a strip that might get dusted. Most of the interested models push something W-E right across the area.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Since I tend to just focus on the next possible chance even if the odds are bad... I've still got a slight amount of interest in snow showers/mood flakes on Sunday. This isn't the kind of event where I'd expect the ENS to succeed, but the 06z EPS ens have a handful of festive members.
  8. NorthArlington101
    GFS with a wicked storm on the 7th-8th. Nasty snow thump to mixy ice to mostly a dryslot.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Are we punting December in November?
  10. NorthArlington101
    Looks like a good weekend for lake effect snow. Wish it wasn’t also Thanksgiving weekend - would be a solid chase opportunity.
  11. NorthArlington101
    All the ens are pretty much snoozers for the next 10 days. Enjoy the cold!
  12. NorthArlington101
    Thanks for the clarification. What I think I was trying to say, and still happy to be corrected on, was that this seems like a good spot for the pass, at least based off my memory. Definitely need stronger.
  13. NorthArlington101
    00z GFS joins its ensembles in trying to get a coastal going Sunday, fails to get anything notable going but nice to see the OP hop on with the general idea. It looks like a pretty ideal vort pass. Just need more juice.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Couple notable coastals, handful of members with storms in the “right where we want ‘em” range. More members than not still drawing blanks though.
  15. NorthArlington101
    Feels like something that’ll juice up in the short-range or not at all. Long as the ghost of the wave is still a thing I’m okay with where we stand to get some flakes in the air.
  16. NorthArlington101
    11/22 - T
  17. NorthArlington101
    More importantly it has the Sunday clipper! Very quick hitting but I’d take a ground-whitener.
  18. NorthArlington101
    Both the GFS and CMC suggest a clipper is a possibility next Sunday. Probably our next “real” shot with the Turkey Day shenanigans on life support.
  19. NorthArlington101
    I don’t think it’s gonna be meaningful in either case but 00z GFS and CMC seem to be making meaningful moves towards a more AI Euro-like evolution.
  20. NorthArlington101
    I walk or bike to work. I’m now mostly in the camp of “if it’s not gonna snow it might as well be 70.” Cold blows.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Supposedly better in some ways, worse in others (worse resolution). They have a write up on their site: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system Either way, should in theory have some utility. It’s not a waste to look. It is firmly on an island right now, though.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Didn’t cave at 18z, but still too warm at the surface!
  23. NorthArlington101
    18z GFS is gonna be a day earlier than the AIFS again it looks like. Difference is very clear at ~3 days on the GFS. Again, this is mostly an exercise in my head to reference later to see if the AI is gonna do anything for us this winter, but GFS pushes the energy onshore at like hr66. It gets held back and weakened on the AIFS which lets more cold build in/suppresses things south in the long run. Note the time differences below.
  24. NorthArlington101
    12Z EURO AIFS stays consistent with a pretty ideal track. It's just iffy surface temps. 850s tighter this go around too. Regardless of whether this threat has any legs, interesting test of whether the AIFS might be sniffing something out
  25. NorthArlington101
    I’ll wait for my AI darling to let us down before I let the fat lady sing. Spire also has a storm… AI revolution? [emoji6]
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