NorthArlington101

GFS getting SECS-y

Lot of the hi-res models have dried up. Guess we’ll see tomorrow morning!

This tracks with the general consensus, unfortunately for me. I’m still interested seeing cutters roll through, especially since a EURO/GFS compromise would work out. Long way to go.

One thing I’ll note - one of these past years I’ve learned that we can accrete at 33/34/35 after days of below normal. Don’t think the instant we go above 32 tomorrow we’ll be clear, but good news is it should warm up pretty fast.

ante upped - especially for N MD on the 12k and 3k. This would be disruptive - I’ll enjoy the glaze from my apartment!

yeah... as soon as I sent that the oracle spoke. I've said this many times already but I'm gone from the 7th-14th barring the second coming of 2009 or 1996 so I'm fine if the good pattern gets delayed - but suspect it won't just to spite me and the folks going to AMS. Or if we just hit Jan 4-6, which the EURO still likes as a window. No reason to throw in the towel yet.

I don’t think it really is yet - pattern still looks good, people are just hedging against the building hype. We’ll know more by New Years, to state the obvious.

Close enough at range but not our HECS from yesterday. Might be setting up a monster at 360 though.

Short-range stuff back to having a FRZA/-SN band come through during the Tuesday morning commute. Could be mostly impactful if people are out-and-about on Christmas Eve. It'll stick. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The low associated with the upper trough will be moving into the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. Isentropic lift in a moisture channel being drawn into this system may produce some very light precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Given the antecedent airmass, most areas should drop below freezing Monday night even with slight warm advection aloft and increasing clouds. Given the weak forcing, coverage of precipitation remain somewhat uncertain, with the highest chances along the Alleghenies and across northern Maryland east of Catoctin Mountain. Potential onset timing also ranges before and after sunrise. On top of this, there will be precipitation type challenges since the warm advection aloft could push the temperature profile above freezing. Even though QPF may only be several hundredths of an inch, any amount of wintry precipitation could pose a travel challenge given the cold ground conditions.

What’s brewing is a group trip to Texarkana for their blizzard

It helps produce more wild results - don’t think that’s a good thing! Though some of us love our digital blue. The AI Euro hasn’t scored any coups from its parent but nice to see them on the same page with that threat window.

I don’t think it means much more, but I think this is the first truly wild Euro OP run of the year. Helps that it runs to 360 now.

yep… I really want this one. Going to be annoying and unabashed in the fact that I need this pattern to deliver early before I’d head out of town on the 7th. Jan 4-6 seems like a legit threat window. Can reload after that for a week and cook through the rest of the season.

Only 52 more cycles until the event kicks off. Respectable signal on the ens for this distance. Fingers crossed!

for posterity… this is the threat window I NEED to work out.

It’s getting HECS-y on the EURO

EPS control for Jan 4/5

The rug pull last Christmas/December in general still breaks my heart. Every week, the next week was supposed to kick off an epic December.

Looong range GFS cooks up a storm on my personal target days (Jan 4-6) that verbatim slides south and doesn’t seem too far from making the New Years storm an option too. Rooting for an active first week of 2025.

They would but I do also want to go to the beach - been more than a year since I’ve traveled out of the DMV. Getting restless. Just hoping if it happens it happens before or after lol

if I miss the Jan 1996 redux ill be inconsolable

EPS Control for the 10th-11th.

Delmarva… not for us!

Spots that are doing well now are theoretically best positioned to get in on the IVT tomorrow too… maybe folks can cash in twice?

this talk of a Jan 3-6th window is much better.