NorthArlington101

I’ll choose to take the optimistic position... the Control member looks fairly similar to the OP.

It absolutely dwarfed a normal summer thunderstorm but I’d be willing to wager it’s rained harder before, but this was a totally different length of time. There were times when it was near-blinding (slightly distorted perspective because I was driving) but even then I could see. What really struck me was the fact that the downpour continued for an hour. It was like heaviest summer thunderstorm of the year going on for a whole hour. Places I’ve never seen flood flooded in 10 minutes. It also really did come in like a wall. Nothing to pouring in about 30 seconds, then whatever the step is beyond pouring in about another 30. https://www.arlnow.com/2019/07/08/flash-flood-warning-issued-for-arlington-3/

Nice and foggy out tonight.

July 2019 rainstorm is the event of the year for me. 3" of rain in an hour is a crazy thing to witness. I've never seen that much water, and places here flooded that I never thought could.

It’s probably going to all go out the window next run but the 18z EPS Control was going to go 3/3 on winter threats this week... nothing that impressive but a dusting with the ULL on Sunday, dusting with the clipper on Monday, and a light event looks incoming on Wednesday.

18z EURO looks more like the ICON... I'll be curious to see the ens.

ICON really cranks the low on the 4th/5th. Almost certainly out of the reach of anyone but the NEMD/Delaware people, but an interesting result anyways.

1157, first high risk is 5/19.

UVA looks... fairly good in the Orange Bowl tonight? Pleasant surprise.

00z EPS Control had a 1-2" storm. GEFS gives us a shot as well.

I really hate wind. Nothing scares me more weather wise than wind with the giant old trees in our backyard. Don’t know how I survived that (2018?) windstorm.

-SN/flurries in N Arlington.

I’d pay at least $50 for a snow squall to make it down here to Arlington. I’ve convinced myself I’ve seen a few spare flakes today.

love the mPING report of a mudslide outside Reston.

meh

Shunted the LP back south, its off Central Florida Couple of members that do get precip up here are almost all too warm. Not even a handful of fantasy members like 06z and 00z showing a decent storm... maybe 2 for Central VA.

12z EPS say absolutely not for the 22nd. I'm back out.

I've made fun of the people being hopeful about a storm on the 22nd already but the 00z EPS of last night vs. the 12z EPS yesterday are pretty darn different. Will it matter... probably not. But its an interesting shift towards a low of the SE coast.

the real diehard weenies are trying to bring hope back to the LR thread. we live in truly desperate times.

Looks like KLWX radar has been fixed — looks normal on RadarScope.

45/27 down here in Charlottesville. Good luck to everyone else!

GEFS is not going to make any friends. Other than one really friendly member, most are suppressed/laugh at us for thinking there was a storm at all.

If its not going to snow it might as well be 70, honestly.

The major caveat that it is the 36 hour HRRR aside, the 00z HRRR looks really nice. Might even give poor old me a flake in Charlottesville.