NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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About 30/70 snow/rain. Yellows are helping quite a bit. Might need to take a walk soon.
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HRRR wants to run a band dropping 1” an hour or so through the DC metro around 4:00. Am I really gonna stay up all night for this...
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Seeing the occasional wet flake in Arlington now.
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Seems to be 100% rain in NW Arlington regardless of rates right now. Need to get a little bit colder still I suppose. 38/35
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Down to 39/35 at 11:00. Trying to listen for sleet pellets. Not sure I said it in this thread, but my obs are from Arlington.
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That slug of precip is really impressive and I’m not sure any model got it right. GFS is the wettest and it’s about to get wet so maybe there is something to it.
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yeah I just saw that. Good thing I ended that with a /s.
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sssshh the GFS almost purpled people in the favored spots. HDRPS is probably about to show 12” /s
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FV3 is very stubborn (probably too much so) about UHI. It always tries to snow hole DC. Good idea in practice, but often leads to funny maps. So to answer your question, I do think it tries to catch the microclimates.
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It’s a pretty wild change for 6 hours. I chided myself for even checking it but was shocked.
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00z GFS [emoji44]
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41/37 and light rain. HRRR continues to look rather nice and it is running a little bit warmer than reality, which is a nice bonus.
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Good day for Alabama weenies.
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HRRR keeps getting juicier with the two bands it wants to set up. Jackpot keeps shifting but it’s nice to see. Someone will get 1”+ rates tonight, though not sure it actually sticks so it may be hard to confirm.
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Down to 43 in Arlington. Pretty impressive cold push.
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HRRR still has two nice bands, both even look a little better this run. 1" an hour near Baltimore. Temps hover around 33.
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HRRR might make you happier. 31-32 by the time the last band comes in to the metro. And the rates in the first band are decent when it is 33-34. Could overcome the grass.
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I'm in the camp of being happy to see snow at this point. Stickage is a bonus.
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Could be worse. Definitely cold enough to stick in favored areas this run as well.
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Winter 2019-2020 Digital Snow Thread
NorthArlington101 replied to NorthArlington101's topic in Mid Atlantic
Bring 'er home, boys. -
HRRR keeps improving run-to-run. I like to think that is because it's doing a better job of recognizing the expanse of precip down in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama.
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Scrolling through my Twitter timeline I'm seeing pretty decent snow in Alabama. Maybe that bodes well.
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I think I heard (jokingly, I'm sure ) that HDRPS maps are banned. 18z HDRPS is gonna be the best run of the 18z suite, bands DC-Balt pretty hard. 2-4" type run for areas that get hit, temps cooperate because of the banding.
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Might as well keep on talking about the 18z suite. 18z RGEM is cold, at the very least. Gives pretty much everyone (including the cities proper) 1" with temps below freezing. 1" everywhere would be a big win.
