NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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Anyone smart wanna say how the low can jump from OBX at hr99 and then go NW to the mouth of the Potomac at hr102? Could just be me living in denial but it seems like a weird track.
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For posterity (for when it ends up totally wrong, hahahaa....)
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This is a bad run for I-95.
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SNOW HAMMER ZONE
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don't think ICON 850mbs are available but almost everyone loses 925s, other than the mountains. Way different than GFS/EURO. Honestly, I think it's tossable.
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ICON (I know) has been pretty consistent with snow to sleet/FRZA. Just trying to recall the past couple years, I know the ICON has advertised big FRZA storms before. None have ever come to fruition.
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I honestly don't know what to make of it. Runs once a day and by the time it comes out it's always old guidance. Makes it tough to to discuss!
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EPS was flatter/less amped at 12z than 06z, FWIW
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we get slammed at the end. verbatim (i know EURO gust product is bad) but it could justify a Blizzard Watch for D.C. proper
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12z: 00z:
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oh yeah. this is an infinitely better run.
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we get crushed in the deform. 12z: 00z:
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rates flip it to snow/rain/sleet for the 1-95 corridor. Not shocking IMO. Looks slightly mixier than previous runs but based on a quick glance it looks more like noise than a trend the wrong way.
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12z is gonna be a little warmer than 00z for ground temps, but mostly looks like noise.
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2" per hour rates on the CMC lol.
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GEFS mean is also impressive. Includes Monday's event.
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i'll make one for the obs thread
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Bingo!
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GEFS took a big jump up. 12z 06z
