NorthArlington101

3k NAM snow map is pitiful. 

I've staked my reputation with a new group of people at UVA on this storm... all I need is a little snow then a pounding of sleet. 

Just hug the 6z FV3. It’s the new GFS anyways.

Good night. Hopefully things trend colder!

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Topper showing 1 to 2 just west of 95... 2-4 along BR... 4 to 6 i81 corridor and 6 to 10 out west of there

I just love how the NAM dry slots us at the end and we avoid a washout. Though it’s nice to see it show a good period of snow for most.

I’m upset no one has posted the SREF...

It’s obviously not mid-winter like last year, so take that caveat as you will, but we had two ice storms last year that accreted at 34/35 degrees. If we get a base down early enough things can get slick.

FV3 is a pounding for I-81. Never goes above freezing. Areas of solid 1.5"/1.75" of precip out west where it never goes above freezing. Sleet/FRZA hellscape. 

Even pretty damn close here in Charlottesville, where we get 1.25-1.5" without going above freezing 

Latest GFS strengthened the high (1040) and put it in a better position while moving precip in the area faster. Nice tiny little changes that will hopefully continue to add up. 

Anyone know what the standard ratio for sleet is? RGEM just absolutely whacked parts of Virginia with sleet/ice. 

~.75" frozen in Cville but I don't think any of it was snow.

Snow depth map vs. the 10-1 is just crazy in how different it is. Could be a lot of frozen precip (i.e., sleet, frza) on top of any snow.

Depth:

10:1

I don't think this will embed...

1hr EURO intervals:

https://imgur.com/01uUKbY

EPS mean. Ever-so-slighty a step back from 0z by a factor of about ~.5" when looking at the DC Metro.

Ah, Charlottesville. Not west enough to be in the mountains and get snow, not north enough to hold onto CAD for a long time and get snow, not east enough to get the best influence of a coastal.

Should’ve gone to JMU, or Minnesota.

Not seeing any mention of the Euro, but from knowyoursky it looks pretty good.  Can anybody with better access comment?

UKMET not as good. More north.

@yoda I think you had asked for this. 

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

So if I remember correctly from last winter did the RGEM have a bias toward overdoing low level cold air? Based on the 12z run it would be pretty nuts for the entire area.

RGEM did seem to have a cold bias last year, but what it's doing at 12z doesn't look unreasonable. Definitely sleety. 

12z 3km NAM snow 10:1 lol

 
 

Before we get fooled by the 3k, NAM and it’s 10:1 map, a friendly reminder that the 3k and 12k both have a positive snow depth map.

Is the 32k nam reliable in peoples opinions here compared to the 12k and 3k? I’m trying to figure out how much stock to put into it when looking at factors for Wed night/Thur such as 2m and 850 temps, etc..

I don’t feel like we’ve referenced the 32k in years. I genuinely think the first time we brought it up in a long tine was yesterday.

So gonna post the 10:1 map and the Kuchera because they both have uses... part of the difference between them is going to be the amount of FRZA/sleet so I feel like it’s fair to show both. Either way, WOW. Not happy to not be in NOVA.

not staying up for the EPS unless I can’t fall asleep, someone else can take the wheel

Damn, DC (Fredericksburg N) mixes and probably flips back to snow at the end with the deform band...

*cries in Charlottesville*

EURO ups the ante.

Ripping just north of DCA at 72, DC probably just flipped to rain... 4-5” via 10:1 map, I’ll post the kuchera at the end