NorthArlington101

GFS/FV3/GEFS is interesting re: first flakes.

I realize that while off of a massive frontal system tracking through Canada (not sure I described that well) isn't a way to succeed accumulations wise, it is a way to see flakes. Many GEFS members (and the GFS/FV3) show this as a valid opportunity for pity flakage somewhere in the area.

Something I had noticed yesterday was a GEFS max (max as in like .5") in SE VA, and that seems to be because a couple of GEFS members attempt to pop a low on the trailing end of the front, which does up the potential intrigue. Think most of the accumulations in the below map is sleet. 

Another interesting thing that the GFS does this run is have a low run up the coast around Day 12. GEFS supports that a little as well with a few coastals popping up around the day 12-14 range.  

Below is the GEFS, certainly not the strongest signal but you can see low pressure coming from the Gulf up the coast.

I realize the probabilities on everything is low and this is all far away, but I enjoy tracking ghosts.  

DCA: 22.8”

IAD: 32.2”

BWI: 25.7”

RIC: 16.0”

SBY: 9.1”

Reserve the right to change this & almost certainly will go higher.

edit1: boosted numbers a little bit

edit2: boosted numbers to reflect early storm

edit3: boosted numbers to go #allin on the December 8th storm

The sub-header to this thread "is an early start a bad sign" probably is not a worry we need to have at this point...

terrible. 

What a cold push for mid-November...

4 days below freezing for many of us... brrrr

GEFS and EPS have been slowly going from no chances in the long-range to slightly more interesting. Given the decent look that we might be going into mid-November I wouldn’t be shocked if we start tracking things in two weeks or so. Maybe the fantasy Thanksgiving Day storm.

FRINGED!!!

You didn't post the most important (snow) maps.

Right around 1” in CHO. Shoulda woulda coulda been a good one.

I love how he only shows the forecast snow out to HR 65, which is Sunday evening. The full run of the Deep Thunder has ZERO snow for anywhere close to BWI.

Nothing even remotely hints at the possibility of a rain/snow mix for that far south... Seriously, WTF is he smoking? 

-SN starting in Charlottesville. Nice yellow/orange band showing up to the south, should be fun...

Just kidding. Drizzle starting. Was hoping to randomly see a flake but not sure that will happen. 41.

39 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I reupped to wxbell today. They need to get on this. 

need to satisfy my addiction

I'm currently subscribed to both, which really annoys me. WxBell needs to get the UKIE back and 6z/18z EURO up and running. 

6z and 18z EURO up on weathermodels.com now... what a world we live in.

That said, the number of interesting EPS members remains fairly constant if not slightly improved, so there is that. I’ll take e24 and call it a winter.

See what you've done lad?

12z OPS (CMC/EURO) and ens (EPS not out yet though) all took a step backwards. Low is weaker and temps are warmer. EURO went from a 993mb low off the Delmarva to a 998mb low. 

GFS moved in the right direction with a more consolidated & stronger low, but would need to be closer to the coast. Something I've noticed looking at better runs and ensemble members is that slower is better for this chance.

GEFS still has some good members (for October 22nd) but has definitely backed off from where it was yesterday evening.

I'm tired of things being either put in the Digital Snow thread or the Obs/Disco thread so I think its time for this.

I genuinely think Western areas have a shot at a storm this weekend and that others have a chance to see first flakes.

The GEFS has looked better in earlier runs (18z yesterday, woof), but this isn't an awful look. Decent amount of members give something trackable. Looked best yesterday at 18z, so maybe a sign.

Yet a couple of other things have hopped on. 0z CMC was probably the first legit OP run in short-range this year. Heckuva western burbs run.

The EURO and the EPS were also fairly interesting as well. EURO showed an appreciable increase in the strength of the low and hence the cold of the system. 850s in the western burbs hung around 0-1C with temps around 35F. Wouldn't take much for a pasting out there, IMO.

This is yesterdays (12z) EURO Control, which definitely suggested following along. 

Below is today's (0z) EURO Control, which still is very interesting.

The EURO OP also got on board and is an appreciable step up from 0z.

Welcome to winter.

0z EURO is so close to a western burbs storm. Keeps trending towards a stronger low and a colder region...

Panasonic Control:

Day 6/7 need to be watched for our first chance at a trackable storm for the Western burbs, and maybe a 'first-flakes' thing for others as well. There is a signal and EPS members jumped on board a little at 12z. Nothing to hype up but something I'll be watching carefully, especially given that I now live closer to the western burbs. 
EURO Control:
 

Day 6/7 need to be watched for our first chance at a trackable storm for the Western burbs, and maybe a 'first-flakes' thing for others as well. There is a signal and EPS members jumped on board a little at 12z. Nothing to hype up but something I'll be watching carefully, especially given that I now live closer to the western burbs. 

EURO Control:

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Giving us good practice for coastal tracking this winter. ❄️

Heck, GFS has a Saturday coastal now, the two that are strongest and coastal to the coast get some snow in the area. 

20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Interesting the latest Euro for next Sunday tries to establish a semblance of a banana high with a coastal resulting in only 30s for highs n+w and some wet flakes even in northern Md . Gfs in contrast maintains some strong energy to the west northwest . I'm sure details will change being 7 days out but a coastal is looking more and more possible next weekend. Hopefully the beginning of many coastals this season 

Yeah, I was jumping through the EPS and its decent for late October. Seen less active times in the midst of winter.

Might be flakes watch time come Sunday. Someone might get lucky enough to see something.

Don't want to dig anything back up but I just want to say that I'm really happy this subforum functions as it does. We've seen what happens in the tropical forums... good god.

When I joined this place I was the ripe old age of 14 (13?) and really annoying. You guys bullied me (in a good way) into generally being a better poster. I still know nothing, but find ways to contribute and foster my growth for the love of the hobby. A tighter forum would've kicked me out and in a looser forum I wouldn't have learned my place. This being a place for enthusiasts who yell at clouds and professional meteorologists who also yell at clouds is what makes it such a great, entertaining, informative community. 

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Only 11 days away 

P001 is a bonefied western burbs snowstorm 

P005 is also has a impressive look ..a little to far northeast but 264 hours to fine tune for a forum hit.

Joking aside I'm thinking we get a couple coastals to track the next few weeks.



Money shot. I'll take the under.