NorthArlington101

Snowing in DCA at 60. Freezing line out past FFX county down to CHO & west, as well as N and Central MD.

EURO is a hair faster at 0z, good change.

00z UKMET, an improvement over 12z

UKIE looks like a slam dunk again, waiting for someone smarter or a snow map to confirm.

Definitely lots of ice mixed in but still, NSFW image

FV3 is colder, probably a period of snow for most before it flip to sleet/FRZA.

GEFS rolling in now too, ICEP rolls in between 54-60z from SW to NE.

That is an ideal NAM run. Wintery mix than shutoff before we get a chance at the deform band.

I like it. Only change I would make is having more snow before the sleet/FRZA mess (or just all snow).

3 minutes ago, NoVaWx said:

Also wondering I’m thinking improve since 3” is in the city. Interested to see what iad is at now. 

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

How does it compare to the 12z Euro? Take a step Back? Improve?

Flipped between the two, it's an improvement. I'll share the map. Hopefully Maue won't hunt me down.

Yea.. some members are off the hook .. geez
Especially our friends in the southwest contingent 

Don't know about the 12Z but the 18z is probably colder.  Granted this is 10:1 but still... Dam.

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Big jump on the snowfall EPS means map. Would post but I believe NorthArlington101 is going to do that. Now have the 2" line south of Balt/DC with 3-4 inches in NW burbs.

yeah I updated my original post. Trying not to spam things too hard. 

off of a rough count:

At 12z 26 members + control get the 2" mark SE of DC -- most of those well past DC, vs 0z where 6 did.

EPS looks super good re: low developing of the coast. Maps coming soon.

Now things are popping.

Found the UKIE map.

We need the guy with the UKIE snow maps but it moves in precip even faster then the EURO at 72hrs it already has .1" of precip at DCA. 

It might be a total slam dunk of a run, I just honestly can't analyze it well. I'll dump the maps. The MSLP is kinda crazy, pops a real low off the coast.

Oh, and I failed in my duty of posting the 6z EURO earlier. 12z is a big improvement snow-wise over the 6z, FWIW. I don't have Kuchera maps on weathermodels, but 6z gets the .5" line just south of D.C., 12z gets the 2" line just south of DC. 

We've got the EURO showing 1-2" of snow for the DC metro, 3" for Baltimore, and 4"+ for western areas and its still fairly dead? Heck, I'm probably getting screwed in Charlottesville (to quote Jebman, damn!) and I'm here. 

Let's get the short-range thread rocking. 

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Which is better right because the cold air is still there?

Yes, EURO is a good run many given the time of year. I'm sure many would lock it up.  

This does all get washed away though.

Ukie just dropped a foot on DC Thursday...

ICON is still FRZA for most areas outside DC proper and SE (most likely) as surface temps are below 32. All snow for N MD and flips everyone to snow at the end.

I’d lock it up.

for posterity: 

If you like sleet and FRZA we got NAM’d.

18z GFS much more tame than the ICON -- still suggests first shot at flakes but it would be in the form of an initial wintry mix to rain. 

ICON took a huge step in the right direction. Faster and colder. Big snowstorm for November. This doesn’t include FRZA, which would certainly happen out my way as temps are below 0.

12z ICON is a mixy mess as well. Shows heavy precip and below freezing temperatures throughout much of the area at the start of the storm. Too bad we can't see the other layers on TTT. 

Is the short-range model thread how we get around jinxing things with a storm thread?