NorthArlington101

Just now, clskinsfan said:

They may put out some kind of advisory later for northern tiers after the 12Z suite. The 18Z runs all had some snow up through NOVA tomorrow as well.

This is could surprise someone somewhere. HRRR/3K have been shooting off nice snow showers. 

Extended HRRR below but they could reach inside the Beltway... won't be shocked if a SWS flies during tomorrow evening's commute.

Swing and a miss at 18z. But I'm sure something will sucker people back in tonight.

Asssuming @high risk is right (which he almost certainly is) here is the FV3. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC636 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018VAZ025-026-036-508-050745-/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0026.181205T0900Z-181205T1700Z/Augusta-Rockingham-Nelson-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-636 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON ESTWEDNESDAY...* WHAT...Light snow expected to begin late tonight, and continue through Wednesday morning. Total snow accumulation of one to two inches are expected, with local accumulations up to three inches at elevations about 2000 feet.* WHERE...Augusta, Rockingham and Nelson Counties, and Central Virginia Blue Ridge.* WHEN...From 4 AM to noon EST Wednesday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow willcause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roadsand limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from canbe obtained by calling 5 1 1.

HDRPS/RGEM been calling for that. Not shocked. Trying to sneak in an 1”-er down here.

3k has some vigorous snow showers dotted throughout the subforum tomorrow.

I am basing my entire future opinion of the FV3 off of this storm. It’s a completely rational action.

Are you in Charlottesville as well? Me too... hoping for at least some pitty flakes to make up for the shafting we got from the November storm.

Are you in Charlottesville as well? Me too... hoping for at least some pitty flakes to make up for the shafting we got from the November storm.

Noise. Almost identical run for that range. Consensus still looks just south of us. And that's fine with me. I want to see a move once we get inside 100 hours. Until then just hold ground. No further south but where it's at is fine. 

FV3 remarkably consistent, but less amped. Knocks down totals for everyone by a little.

I realize no one cares but the high-res RGEM is insistent on some convective snow showers in Central/Southern VA Wednesday. 3k NAM was also pretty nice.

At this point I’d happily gamble with this.

While we wait for Fv3 the GEFS looks to hold with a bit of tightening of the gradient in total precip...this is looking at total precip on TT not snowmaps but I would expect the means to looks the same as 18Z...maybe a bit less towards PA and a bit more in central VA.

Big improvement for central/southern VA, somewhat so for western VA. Pulled back ever so slightly towards DC and MD.

Go Canada!

Go Hoos!

GEFS definitely not south of 12z.  6” line to DC.  2” line is up near Trenton.  Haven’t looked through the individual members.

18z GFS was a good hit for *ducks* Charlottesville.

35 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Yea it really wasn't fair, way too much of a softball. 

tossed that one out there, knew someone would take it

about to dig out the Australian and Brazillian models 

Just now, Ji said:

the beta GFS will save us but we lost the Icon

GFS is literally on death's door.

CMC looks to be a hit again, storm moving N at 138.

3 offsides by the same guy... unreal.

Steelers need teach some discipline, embarrassing game. Not how we win a division.

Just now, yoda said:

00z CMC major hit

heh, no kidding. this might be the sexiest panel I've ever seen

It's also still kinda worth watching Wednesday a little. GFS keeps showing an area of T-1" or so in the Central/Western part of VA. 

One of those things that could get a little more juice over the next few days. I'm sure it'll tease us by looking healthy Tuesday evening.

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The good news?  00z ICON isn’t suppressed.  

The bad news?  It’s a 999 over ORF and heavy rain everywhere.  

More good news?  It’d break the annual rainfall record at DCA.  woo!  

It's not showing it well but some of it is at least FRZA... surface temps are below freezing N/W of the city. Some of the slower GEFS members have an icy/mixy mess too. Just another option on the table.

Time to focus on the real storm: Wednesday. #the5thneverfails