NorthArlington101

What 50 miles or so would do...

9:00 NAM soon?

9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Was there an output for the 18z euro? 

Just a hair north of 12z, not worth mentioning really. Noise rather than a helpful trend. 

lol, I might take the train back to Cville tomorrow. Getting major FOMO

Um...
 

WPC maps clearly show the uncertainty.

Going to guess DCA is 0.1 to 0.15 for the 12z UKMET on the QPF... waiting for meteogram... unless someone else has the image already

For comparison, 00z UKIE had nothing in DCA

Hmmmm... this doesn’t look like that. Odd.

Yeah, weathermodels 6hr precip maps have a near miss. Odd differences.

Do you have a pic?

Are all the Canadian models running with the same data? That’s probably the wrong term but hopefully you know what I mean. 12z CMC holds.

Out to 44

Per the ncep site, .1” of precip line on the FV3 ends up a little S of DC. CHO somewhere in between .25-.5”, RIC .5”.

HRDRPS stuck at 30 but it looks interesting

You see this panel. What do you assume happens next?

New RGEM remains tantalizing.

3k also shrunk south a little bit.

For those still watching, the 12z NAM was a slight shrink south from its 06z position. Perhaps it'll get more in line with the 3k.

Heckuva model war going on. Canadians & NAM vs. EURO/FV3/ICON vs. GFS/WRFs. Differences in those camps is going to mean a lot for the southern half of the subforum.

Well, I'm back in Arlington now, so I'm sure the storm is going to move just north enough to slam Charlottesville. Enjoy down there!

It's a really hard forecast down there. NAMs and Canadian show 8"+, GFS shows 0", FV3 shows 3", EURO shows 2".

Yeah, its too bad CMC is out on its own island, because that would be really nice to see around here

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

GFS looks like its following suit of bumping the northern extent of precip north.  

Gets a little past RIC. Not near the extent of the ICON/RGEM though.

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

I know it’s the Rgem at range. But man that’s an insignificant statistical error from being a DC special

We got 48 hours to pull an NYC in the 2016 Blizzard. 

If I recall correctly didn't 12/9/2017 have a last minute north trend giving us an advisory level event? 

If this somehow trends back we'll have to ban storm mode.

Repeat after me... I'm not getting suckered in by the F-team models... I'm not getting suckered back in by the F-team models. 

Yeah, not even any scenes with Thanos.  Marvel does an excellent job in giving you very little to keep you in suspense.
 
For the record, even producers said Hulk was not scared after getting beatdown, but refused to come out as a sort of protest against banner and the way he is treated by the world.