NorthArlington101

EURO is faster which is better for temps. Wintry mix for western and northern burbs at 120. Step in the right direction overall.

EURO is rolling in. Amazing how different it is from its previous run looking into TN, AR, and MO at 108. Nothing here is set other than this being a long shot. 

GEFS have been getting more and more interested in this event over the past couple of runs. Might be hiveminding like last year but has moved from 1 GEFS member interested in the follow up wave to now all but 4. 

By hour 108, 11 GEFS members have some sort of mix in the area. Many are FRZA. 850s must go more favorable at hour 120 or so because a couple of members flip Western areas to snow, other spots flip to rain.  ignore that, TTT doesn't support.

What everyone wants to see:

GFS is an ice/sleet storm in Charlottesville... would be odd at this time of year. 

Note this is obviously NOT A REALISTIC SNOW MAP (includes sleet to say the least) but shows the "extent" and "amount" of wintry precip. Massive grain of salt.

It'll probably turn out to be just cold rain but models seemingly starting to converge on that follow up coastal storm happening. GEFS show a shot at mixy precip, as does 18z GFS proper. 12z EURO today was also a icy/sleety mess for SW Virginia and some western parts of the state. ICON hopped on board with the follow up too. 

We'll see if 0z GFS does anything fun.

18z GFS has the follow-up storm now Day 5... cold rain. 

EURO brought back the follow-up storm in the Day 5-6 range but its too waaayyyy to warm at 850. Almost FRZA for the usual colder areas in our subforum. 

Why does it never snow as much as it rains?

CMC has a similar idea to the EURO but no cigar. Low gets shoved due west. EPS coming out now.

No mention of the 12z GFS for next Tuesday?

0z GFS has a little bit of snow in the immediate metro area next Tuesday... it’s a start. Coastal exists again but way too far off the coast to be super interesting.

Signed up for weatermodels. Com the other day just to see if I like it better than wxbell... Figured I'll risk the 20 bucks for one month and cancel if I didn't like it.

Maybe I am missing something but Jeesh... Seems more difficult to navigate than wxbell. Beautiful maps but can he design something easy to navigate. Tropical tidbits is as simple as it gets... Doesn't seem too difficult to achieve.

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Trying to learn a bit:

It appeared to me that the 06z GFS was really close to a storm around Day 9. Would have a stronger vort pass done something? Here is the appropriate map from TT (I think). 

 WxBell... becoming less and less viable.

didn’t mean to quote Mattie g btw

EPS decidedly more interesting for the Day 10ish period. Pretty colors...

Ready for another OP to toss out a good run. Happy hour FV3?

Out of area now but we are driving through PA/NJ and this is the most rain I’ve ever seen. Tornado warnings too. Saw the worst accident I’ve ever seen on the side of the road. Real frightening.

Out of area now but we are driving through PA/NJ and this is the most rain I’ve ever seen. Tornado warnings too. Saw the worst accident I’ve ever seen on the side of the road. Real frightening.

Rotation south of Catonsville, MD where the line is wrapping up a bit.

mostly gone now

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1058514993304518657

Frederick to Leesburg getting raked.

It is dumping along I-81. Bad night to be driving up it.

Someone told me this place was a desert!

Speaking of tracking fake snow...

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s nice, but I’m all about putting up numbers.

Oh I totally agree. But I've come to realize that the post-Winter depression isn't because it isn't going to snow again for the next seven months, it is the lack of obsessively tracking things and having less of a reason to stick around the forum. Keeps me busy! But that's just me. 

12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Definitely not looking forward to the fake stuff.

Fake stuff is great. It's the chasing that makes it fun.