NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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might be the first run to push up the start time in awhile. first flakes at 87hrs
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Para always comes out a day late and only at 00z. That's why its really hard to assess its usefulness, IMO.
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I liked that model so much better when it had a crazy cold bias.
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if that 18z HRRR didn't bring people to this thread, nothing will.
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00z GEFS is a marked improvement from 18z, which really wasn't a bad run. Nice.
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We tack on some extra pixie dust on Friday, too. Beautiful run. Pleasure being here with y'all.
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welp, congrats. My expectations were low but I didn't think we'd get killed.
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i actually got beat so I deleted it, but agreed. maybe one of the best I've ever made.
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if rates would ever overcome marginal conditions that would be when it happens
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:ooo
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Guess the Germans forgot to run the ICON tonight. Probably for the best.
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Wasn’t expecting the rain.
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Just need Eskimo Joe to be unimpressed with the 00z GFS and we’ve got another Bingo!
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Definitely might’ve missed some earlier, but here’s the update. Waiting to debut a new one just for the obs thread, haha.
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don’t check the 00z HRRR.
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my poor Wahoos are getting killed.
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NAM is super amped. Probably irrelevant for most of us, might help with Wednesday though.
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Good to see ya!
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Heh. 18z is definitely colder than 12z at the surface and at 850. To be honest, if it went the other way I'd be calling it noise, but since it confirms my biases I'll say its a trend. Control is hideous though. Better hope we can toss it.
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I’m actually surprised the individual members/mean don’t look slightly better given these panels.
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18z looks like it holds.
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This might be an appreciable difference from 12z. I'll let someone smart comment on it. 18z: 12z:
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Totally forgot the 18z doesn't go past 90. I was refreshing like a maniac, haha. I'm not smart enough to extrapolate but I'm not seeing any obvious warning signs here. I will say the CAD looks better on the 12z.
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fwiw. slightly more west than 06z but there are some big members messing with the mean again (986mb over Hagerstown, for example). I'd say there are more along the Chesapeake than we'd like but it's more than workable.
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It may be the 18z stress but if we get another "where are Bob and Showme" message I'll have to add it to the Bingo board. I don't think we know and we may never know. Been a weird year. Hopefully they show up but if they don't, we do out best without them and hope they are doing well and are healthy wherever they are at.
