NorthArlington101

GFS Kuchera, FWIW

@BlizzardNole cool to know you are nearby for work! Gonzaga is a decent neighbor… definitely loud during football season. But the trade off is free entertainment. Only been a terrible work from home partner maybe twice. If I had access to the field, I’d probably stay in DC for snow events. But walking around the urban areas, unless it’s gonna be a blizzard, doesn’t match the jebwalk potential in a residential area imo. It’s also unfortunately less safe

Think I’ve got one of the better views you can have in DC when it comes to snow. Unfortunately I can’t get down to the field (shoutout Gonzaga) to use it to measure, and the courtyards in the complex aren’t fantastic either. I’ll have to trust someone else to measure DC for me…. I’d guess no more than .5”

First time I’ve seen a dusting in DC. Pretty cool! That said… probably gonna “chase” the rest of this one in Arlington today. TBD

Any other night I’d try to stay up and find out. My chips are in for tomorrow, though. Want to get 10 hrs of sleep tonight. Gonna see if my brain can wake me up around 4:30 naturally to peek… we’ll see.

Nothing meaningful after this. Good run.

Does this help to get the yellows over my backyard? Asking for myself

We’ve learned the formula 1) start thread 2) falls apart 3) start new thread 4) looks better 5) profit??

Maybe the stuff in the SW ends up stretching this way… as the high res have boosted totals in TN too. Just a little behind.:.

Slow af on WxBell. I pray you are right. This is my drunk cycle… with a lot of Lions fans. Go Lions

No offense, but toss [emoji17]

18z EURO

The gap right around DCA is hilarious

idk with Kuchera this matches the LWX forecast. We la la lock it up with cushion on all sides

GFS has enough snow overnight tonight to verify the SWS in the metro... close to WWA in the counties NWS picked out too

I tried to use it for our last event and it crapped out before we got 24 hours in, but it showed a lot of sleet and I got a lot of rain, so it's not a magic bullet. I do think it is "supposed" to be the latest and greatest short/hi-res model, though.

The National Weather Service promised me 3-4"+ so that's my bar

admittedly not as epic as I'd thought it might be (early maps might show some virga) it still juiced up slightly. tries a bit w/ the coastal as well

18Z RGEM looks like a weenie run based off the early maps, FWIW. Also supports the WWA tonight, I believe. Better maps hopefully in a few.

Maybe you'll change your mind after the 5th mimosa

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The region is likely to see the first significant accumulating snow in several years, starting late tonight in central VA, then spreading northward Monday into Tuesday. Cold conditions expected through mid week as highs struggle to reach the mid 30s south/east of US-29, and remain below freezing to the north/west. Monday night will see temps drop to the 20s, with teens in the mountains. Frigid temperatures arrive Tuesday night as the temps plunge into the teens, with single digits in the Alleghenies. Combined with gusty winds, dangerous wind chills are likely in the single digits to single digits below zero, and negative teens in the Alleghenies. A potent jet aloft and numerous waves of low pressure traversing the region that is socked in to an Arctic airmass will allow for at least two periods of accumulating snowfall. The first is expected tonight into Monday morning as a broad shortwave moves overhead. The highest snow totals are expected in Central VA and the Central Shenandoah Valley where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Snow amounts of around 1" are expected along the I-95 corridor from Fredericksburg up to the DC metro, and around half an inch up to the Baltimore metro. Snow rates should decrease Monday afternoon as the area enters a lull between events. Intermittent light snow and flurries will be possible all day across most of the area. The second period of snow is expected Monday evening into Tuesday, and this is expected to produce widespread snow amounts of 2-3" with isolated higher amounts possible. Additional Winter Weather Advisories are expected to be issued during the next forecast cycle tonight to account for the second period of snow.

Agreed, I feel misled by the NAM’ing posts. Doesn’t meet LWX’s bullish forecast. Next (largely jk)

I have to imagine high ratio snowfall is falling into this forecast. It just seems astonishingly bullish. CWG can’t be happy given how it contrasts against their numbers.

1-2” for Charlottesville tonight/tomorrow morning seems a little bold… but NWS is clearly bullish.