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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Down to 34 in my corner of Charlottesville, if rates could pick up we’d probably be off to the races.
  2. NorthArlington101
    You've been a fan of this pre-coastal stuff for a few days now - does it mean anything at all that the short-range models got the start time really wrong? Is this an earlier start, earlier finish kind of deal or is this "bonus."
  3. NorthArlington101
    Family reporting nice sized flakes in Arlington -- tiny but steady down in Charlottesville.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Having to remind myself this is just bonus -- HRRR, which ain't doing great right now I'll admit, still gets us to 2.5" (seems extreme) but the best stuff isn't progged till like 7-8... that's what I'm telling myself at least
  5. NorthArlington101
    @WxUSAFdoes your temps cooperating promise hold down here in Charlottesville? Asking for a friend. 39 and maybe the occasional spurt of drizzle.
  6. NorthArlington101
    someone up there just shared your (I think) Mid-Atlantic grief cycle image, lmao
  7. NorthArlington101
    sort of? the 3k has a band in a similar spot but a hair more north
  8. NorthArlington101
    The band near Warrenton looks pretty legit, any ground truth there?
  9. NorthArlington101
    GFS looks to be on track with temps and still drops a respectable amount of snow for a good chunk of the subforum.
  10. NorthArlington101
    Failing because it gets too warm would be a fun way to put the nail in the coffin on this whole thing
  11. NorthArlington101
    Short-res models seemed to miss this stuff, as they did the precip north of CHO (which I don't actually know if it's making it to the ground). Weenie handbook says it means there is plenty of juice up above us.
  12. NorthArlington101
    2-4" for Baltimore with a rogue 5" has been the expectation for awhile now, I feel like?
  13. NorthArlington101
    give or take 30” for MA
  14. NorthArlington101
    I’m not knowledgeable enough to answer this so I’d have to phone a friend, lol. I feel like people have been talking this up as a sorta unique set up, so that has its dangers.
  15. NorthArlington101
    think ji’s right above yours might be funnier. I’ve been all in on this feature for a few days now since I’m too west and Millville and some other mets online have been fairly bullish. If it continues to juice up someone will do surprisingly well, I think. 5” might be tough
  16. NorthArlington101
    I think the front end can be weenie-willed up to a 5" jackpot, genuinely. To answer the ratio question from Scraff, they improve as it goes on, but the bulk of the good stuff falls at 10:1, based on how Pivotal interprets the Kuchera #s
  17. NorthArlington101
  18. NorthArlington101
    man, I’ve got like no work to do at college this weekend - I bet I could make this trip work haha
  19. NorthArlington101
    Also finished Ozark tonight - can’t wait for May, which is when it seems like Pt. 2 is airing. Very glad it’s not next fall, which I had feared.
  20. NorthArlington101
    FV3-HiRes, temps a bit of an issue:
  21. NorthArlington101
    i updated it - tbf it should've included an additional 3 hours. 1" from the coastal would be a win, i guess
  22. NorthArlington101
    that's true, but looking at how much QPF it throws back from the coastal given that statement is kinda funny, lol 18z comparison
  23. NorthArlington101
    12k NAM is an acceptable compromise for all + it's colder than the HRRR.
  24. NorthArlington101
    yeah, if you mean the fact it says it's 35 and it'll actually be 31 and that the band is gonna move 20 miles south and be directly over my yard, I agree
  25. NorthArlington101
    For the people in the band, most of it comes in 3 hours. Temps aren't great tho, I'll admit.
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