NorthArlington101

the NBM seems to ingest a helluva a lot of data from models I've never even heard of -- but I'm pretty confident its not getting access to future runs/has predictive value for the next cycle. Think this is (unfortunately) just a byproduct of a HECS GFS run being added to the blend. It even has the exact same stripe of max snow totals

Tomer Berg is writing an out an awesome thread on Twitter. Echos a lot of what everyone in here was saying too, which is always nice. Not sure it’ll end with a positive conclusion, but…

This is where I'm immediately out of my depth haha. Toggling back and forth between 06z I see a possible narrow improvement on that same view -- if it's improved elsewhere would love if you could share

Shockingly (not) the EPS is looking pretty similar to the OP. vs the GFS

After all the hype for the mid-late December period... if I don't see at least an 1" of snow by the end of the month I'll be rather disappointed. Realize it's early, but whiffing the next 15 days would bruise my spirit.

If it still existed, The Panic Room would be busy.

It's got the same kind of cold wall of death that the ICON was showing at 12z - at least that's fun.

I prefer my snow in my yard rather than in Schrödinger's box

While we wait for the GFS and real discussion... I'd take something that wild over a 1-2" pure snow event. From 60 to 20 in an hour or so? It would feel unbelievable

this would be a lot of fun in its own way. Nuts temperature gradient

I totally get some of these... would be useful for many people to see road closures and how/if snow is accumulating. But some of these seem a hyper-specific and not that useful on mPING, imo, but maybe there is no other platform. The only one I see being legit problematic is the closures one. What good does filling up the radar screen with school/business closures do, especially in really populated zones? More than a couple people marking a delay or closure when OPM has a weather day is gonna make RadarScope a tough read.

Not only that...

Beginning to have “big ones are sniffed out early” vibes - hope it sticks this time

This is a nuts 24 hour mean for this range… jeez.

Just to get it on the record - what do you actually think happens? Always curious what you’re thinking

Sun is still definitely making its way through the cloud deck in Arlington, but seems to have thickened up — 37/21. If things were holding off a little longer tonight I’d chase this in Staunton for the hell of it. By the time the Survivor finale ends though (10pm) I don’t think I’d want to cross the Blue Ridge!

Not sure I buy it personally - temps aren’t really any colder than precious runs + heavier precip wouldn’t be particularly helpful in accretion.

Beet juice!

00z NAM not really coming in colder but the cold looks to stay entrenched a bit longer, fwiw.

Pretty close. One or two more nudges and maybe we could start talking about a quick thump? Maybe we can get our first NAMming of the year in a few minutes. Also - thanks for the reminder on EURO soundings on TTT. Crazy that data is free now.

Marginal event so every bit matters -- 18z EPS keeps nearly everyone 1-2F colder at the surface during the event timeframe. 850s are 1-2C colder -- which is a pretty big jump. Can't see 925s unfortunately.

We are also in LWX "first guess" range. Maybe a bit snowier than expected... considering expectations are for near-nil.