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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Looks best it ever has for the 6-7th wave. Some nice ones in there.
  2. NorthArlington101
    Was curious if they released a discussion, went looking and found this:
  3. NorthArlington101
    EPS has a signal but it's quite suppressed... it is cold enough, in theory.
  4. NorthArlington101
    not a lot of EPS interest on Jan 4... jan 7 tbd. Way too warm at the surface for Jan 4
  5. NorthArlington101
    Bombogenesis off OBX or bust
  6. NorthArlington101
    maybe with better rates/timing we could do something with this one. It looks close but man it's painful verbatim. Owch
  7. NorthArlington101
    if you like perfect track rainstorms
  8. NorthArlington101
    Well the 00z GFS goes for the “what storm?” approach which might be preferable
  9. NorthArlington101
    January 2022 probably
  10. NorthArlington101
    We’ll have to see if 00z can top it. I think it might
  11. NorthArlington101
    Also that was the new worst GFS run of all time
  12. NorthArlington101
    In a different world… https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1740123101755838651?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  13. NorthArlington101
    so you are saying time to plan a trip to the mountains?
  14. NorthArlington101
    looks ok... just doesn't do anything to the snow mean. I've seen worse odds for cold temps though.
  15. NorthArlington101
    wouldn't that be something - we've prevented enough warming to dodge freaky climate future where it's 0-100 with snow, but things have warmed just enough to leave us in a dead zone.
  16. NorthArlington101
    PSU’s backyard might be a better place for a ski resort than Liberty
  17. NorthArlington101
    I still believe in a boom/bust future - but we've been waiting a long time for the "boom." Where is my 40" climate supercharged storm
  18. NorthArlington101
    Terrible 12z GFS run
  19. NorthArlington101
    if it's gonna do this stuff in the short/mid-range, I wonder why I'd look at it over the EURO. I know it earned some respect locally with how it sniffed out Jan 2022, but beyond that I don't think it's been any better. It's ens are still seemingly heavily prone to overestimating precip/snow.
  20. NorthArlington101
    GFS has been terrible with this one.
  21. NorthArlington101
    I guess I wouldn’t bet my life this wouldn’t happen, but it’s concerning how bad the gfs is 4 days out.
  22. NorthArlington101
    I’ve been weighing doing this for years and think Canaan and Deep Creek are probably the best two spots. You could probably find some secluded mountain cabin in West Virginia if you want to really rough it, but I kinda like knowing a plow is coming. I keep glancing at real estate out in those parts. Maybe one day I’ll pull the trigger and we can have an AmWx snow retreat.
  23. NorthArlington101
    GEFS looks slightly improved for the 2nd and 4th, FWIW. Not worth getting excited about but should reassure folks neither threat is “dead.” Also has that same window of opportunity on the 7th/8th. Would be really funny if we did all this handwringing and somehow went on a heater.
  24. NorthArlington101
    I bet someone here knows more than me, but that’s my understanding. It’s trained off historical weather data and tries to use that to predict the weather going forward. Conceptually that seems like a great application of that kind of learning to me.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Butterfly effect ends up with a substantial winter storm for GA (by their standards) up into the Carolinas for the 3-4th. Wacky run
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