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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    tempted to post the JAWS photo looking at hr174 but I don't want to risk my already limited credibility
  2. NorthArlington101
    EPS doesn’t look suppressed. It does look very marginal temp wise. Dare I say too warm
  3. NorthArlington101
    @psuhoffman A thread for you: https://x.com/atlanticwx/status/1741158286026539042?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  4. NorthArlington101
    I know we had this discussion yesterday about forum organization, but we could probably save some unpleasant conversations if we made a thread that covered discussion(s) for the 4th and 7th
  5. NorthArlington101
    On the other hand, the Canadian is a total whiff. Vort seems to get shredded as an LP forms over the plains. GFS did that too for the first time this run, but the coastal seemed to win out. Would be curious what smart people make of it.
  6. NorthArlington101
    It gets shoved offshore, but makes it to us. @psuhoffman fringed to save the masses.
  7. NorthArlington101
  8. NorthArlington101
    GFS trying to be incoming at 192 - snow spreading up through VA. SW VA getting hammered.
  9. NorthArlington101
    https://x.com/stormchasernick/status/1741097207221092467?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  10. NorthArlington101
    I’m sure it’s several things… but it helps that the 2nd storm is a real storm with good rates. Not like it’s showing cold smoke. Fringe in the metros and 30-31 out in your spot. Boom/bust. Give us a real storm and we’ve got a shot.
  11. NorthArlington101
    00x CMC fails the Chuck test I think if I remember how it was explained earlier. Think it goes 3/3
  12. NorthArlington101
    People always claim it’s better than the GFS when you look at verification scores. We certainly don’t treat it that way, though
  13. NorthArlington101
    A little of the CMC up in your parts is actually on Jan 4 too. 2.5/2 so far - kinda
  14. NorthArlington101
    00z CMC saves winter on Jan 7
  15. NorthArlington101
    fwiw -- 18z EPS was a pretty sizable shift to suppressed for the shot on the 4th. DC went from .2" of precip to .02" in a single ens run.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Worst 18z GEFS run of the season so far
  17. NorthArlington101
    mPING report of snow in FFX city? Guess I’ll look out the window as the precip rolls through.
  18. NorthArlington101
    The 4th event is begging to be put out of its misery but the 18z GEFS has about 5/30 interesting members… similar proportion as the EPS which had like 10/50. Someone merciful would’ve pulled the plug by now
  19. NorthArlington101
    Don’t see a Great Lakes low… steps toward a 50/50 low… issue that time seemed to be confluence. Cold looked better. Lot of ways to fail
  20. NorthArlington101
    I was about to type something snarky about moving to Jackson, MS if you want to see snow in the current base state
  21. NorthArlington101
    18z GFS substantially colder at the surface this run… can see it translating with snow in the SE. you’d think incoming but we’ll see. lol suppressed
  22. NorthArlington101
    Also thought the 18z ICON looked interesting at the end of its run (hr120)
  23. NorthArlington101
    Nice to see - but ultimately slides offshore. Not close to cold enough either. We'll see if the ens can do any better.
  24. NorthArlington101
    I'd feel pretty good about you having something trackable at least for one of those. The lowlands... we've got work to do. Most important 18z of our lives.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Just out of curiosity - did you buy the land and then build the cabin? Or was the cabin there? And rental opportunity noted - seems like a great deal and a cool place if i need to flee west for snow-sanity reasons.
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