LVLion77

Already changed to sleet sw of allentown with a little over an inch. It was 31 during the snow and now up to 33. It looked good for about an hour. Oh well.

I agree completely regarding damage factor remaining very serious and nobody should let their guard down. I think some of us get frustrated that forecasting is still in major need of improvement in terms of considering basic climatology - ie the insistence this would approach the coast at 140-150 mph at this latitude or with Irma last year nearly all forecasts dismissed the fact that land (Cuba) damages hurricanes. .

The gulf stream affect tends to be greatly exaggerated throughout history. If I were a betting man I would bet continued weakening until landfall. I wonder why the models continue to mishandle the intensity in this final approach ? .

After Jose and Maria wave action you wonder how much more east coast beaches can take, particularly if we have a more active nor’easter season. I have family at the Jersey shore who indicate a lot of beach sand swallowed up by Jose alone. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

At the time of my post I used intellicast sst map (not sure of the source for their data), which showed the 80 degree line pretty far south and in contradiction with your post before your edit. Jose took a lot of heat from the ocean. That is why I have felt for days we would see a rapid weakening and perhaps a transition away from tropical status. How often have we seen quick deaths in waters in just the upper 70s. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Maria cannot sustain in these cooler waters as evidenced by her continued weakening. I wonder how much longer she continues as ‘hurricane.’ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A weakening (damaged) hurricane over warm water will be entering relatively cool water of the open ocean soon in the wake of jose and will spend the rest of its life over relatively cool water. The ssts along the coast don’t help either- range from the upper 60s in va to upper 70s along nc coast. What component of basic climatology indicates this will be a catastrophic situation for the coast? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Even if some speculation (or weenie hope)on this message forum is realized with a nc landfall, maria is a shell of her pre pr former self now and is entering an environment that encourages a lot of weakening and perhaps one that causes a subtropical transition that far north. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hopefully the lesson was learned that cat 5s require perfect conditions over a very warm ocean to sustain. Throwing prolonged land interaction into that equation like irma over cuba and the core is permanently damaged. And irma was merely hugging that coast with 85 degree water literally within a stones throw from the eye, and she looked completely damaged within 6 hours. Maria looks better in structure exiting PR than irma skimming cuba but regardless maria weakened more than many thought. This topic would be a great reaearch study for a meteo grad student.

I hope that irma and maria serve as a reminder that the basics still hold true for tropical cyclones- land damages tropical systems. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk