LVLion77
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Everything posted by LVLion77
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
LVLion77 replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
That has to be some sort of record! I think we all know the late season sun angles are brutal on snowpack, but I feel like they’re more brutal this year! If we could all choose a date to have a major winter storm, it would probably be December 21. [emoji3] -
It is so rare and fascinating to see something like this happen without orographic lift, lake effect, etc.
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Wow! There must be widespread roof collapse issues up there. It is winding down but that will end up being around 40” of wet snow. Unbelievable.
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It’s still snowing in Providence!! 33” thus far. Damn New Englanders have too much of the winter fun.
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The late February sun is brutal. It will all be gone by late tomorrow.
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Weird question, but I would consider area to be the criteria for sure.
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They did, but they got more right than wrong versus NWS.
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And furthermore, I think AccuWeather handled the storm much better than NWS. And don’t get me wrong, I’ve seen it go the other way plenty of times as well. NWS stubbornly held onto bad predictions in a huge swath of this region when we amateurs could see it was never going to verify. Earlier in the event, you could see where the banding was setting up. I believe it was the 11 PM update last night that NWS posted an additional 4 to 12 inches for the Lehigh Valley, which was just pure bullheaded stubbornness.
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Thank you. Yes, if you look at the geographical territory of the NWS office and compare versus the final forecast map you posted, a relatively small percentage of the area verified. I still believe at least 75% of the forecast area was significantly lower than predictions. Sometimes on forums like this, the what happened in my backyard mantra, clouds people’s assessment of forecast accuracy, both under and over.
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I’m not salty at all. It was an added bonus on an above average year. But factual reality is that likely 3/4 of their geographical area under performed their forecast to a very significant degree.
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I would agree with the difficult nature of predicting these storms, but I highly disagree with that assessment that they predicted this well. A very high percentage of Mount Holly‘s forecast geographical area greatly underperformed their Sunday forecast. .
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It was modeled well in terms of there being a major coastal storm and significant accumulations, but I think huge chunks of Mount Holly‘s territory underperformed, in some cases rather dramatically. The jersey shore, northern DE, and much of Mount Holly‘s area in PA dramatically underperformed their predictions. .
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AC is a bit lower than I would have predicted. Perhaps PA, NJ, DE actually underperformed overall vs a number of the catastrophic level forecasts? I cannot see wrap around Snow giving much more meaningful accumulation in the region. New England does seem to be getting hammered. I’ll be interested to see the final totals up there.
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I have measured on average 5” in multiple spots, unless wind or compaction slightly skewed my numbers. For the major services, Accuweather and TWC nailed the LV. NWS bombed the forecast here, even through later updates when it was certain the heavier banding was not making it here. There were always gonna be winners and losers with this one. Happy for the folks to the south and east who did really well!
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I wonder if we can do better when the bands pivot from the northeast. The flow from the southeast is weakening a bit for us over the last 30-45 minutes.
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The NWS update for the Lehigh Valley is rather interesting - an additional 4”-12”. Don’t recall ever seeing that specific spread ever before.
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Amazing! .
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Clear spot, certain it was accurate. .
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I am around 2.75” and have seen better intensity and ratios with decreasing temp. Becoming optimistic now.
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South Mountain runs southwest to northeast on the southern side of that map. South of 78 on the west side of the map and along 78 on the east side. But south Mtn is roughly where this cutoff is. I am on the north side of South Mountain and I’ve seen mostly just light snow. As drought guy has indicated in the past, the mountain does serve as a barrier or enhancer of various types of weather, winter or summer. It’s an interesting place. .
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Yeah, and your concern was valid. That area is extremely vulnerable to flooding. Part of it is due to all of the development in the area and associated runoff. But importantly, a very prominent Lehigh Valley landowner in the past offered to dredge that creek system to minimize flooding, but some level of government (cannot remember if it was local or state) would not give them indemnification. It’s too bad as it would’ve solved a lot of issues in that area.
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That’s funny, but I do not know his house. I remember him posting about his displeasure with the NWS not providing ample flood warnings along that creek since he lives along it.
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I am halfway up the mountain. He lives along spring creek. .
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Oh boy, you, drought dude, and myself are all relatively close within 5 miles.
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Where are you? I’m in Macungie and only have 1 inch at this point.
