LVLion77

Well, Sunday and Monday were highly inaccurate forecasts with 0.08” yesterday and a 0.00 today. Still convinced the east wind has stabilized the atmosphere to the point that heavy showers and tstorms are unable to form in this quadrant of this system. We go to a more southerly flow on Tuesday, which should be more conducive to heavier rain.

I agree that topography has a big role as well here as you described, and that influence is year-round. The Atlantic stabilizing influence is likely only prevalent here in the spring when the ocean temp is generally in the 40s and 50s am low pressure is sitting to our west. I don’t think the computer models grasp that very well. In the fall and winter it is the opposite situation in that easterly flow is conducive to more precipitation, considering that the ocean is a lot warmer than the land at that point. .

Just an observation. Each time the precip forecast missed badly this spring, like today, we had an easterly wind here in the LV. I am no meteorologist and I could be very wrong, but this time of the year that east wind equals a cool stable flow off the Atlantic. Perhaps that is the factor that blows up a number of these forecast? Upstate NY seems to have gotten our forecasted heavy rains today. We are forecasted to have east winds Monday as well. .

Surprised to see the sun this evening. 0.08” during the day from sprinkles and light showers. Precip forecasts for tomorrow and Tuesday are significantly reduced now. I wonder if the accuracy of forecasts will increase with advanced AI.

Yep, today thus far has been a total flop - 0.03” since midnight with drizzle currently and a nowcast radar that shows much of the same the rest of the day. Again the best action is to the west… several hundred miles west. Perhaps tomorrow will be our day? .

Looks like the activity is coming to an end for sw Lehigh County this evening - 0.60” today and 0.73” for the weekend thus far. Wish I had a little bit more rain tonight but really happy with the lightning show. There are definitely more opportunities coming in the next couple days.

Unfortunately, it looks like a lot of the action has stayed to the north and west today. I thought the sunshine would be stabilize us enough to see some action popping. There may be something looking to form in Maryland at this point, so we shall see.

I am just a few miles away from you and missed that first thundershower by literally 1/4 of a mile. I got a subsequent brief heavy shower a bit later for a quick but paltry 0.13”. Should be lots of opportunities to see good rain totals this weekend.

I was in State College at the time of that Line going through last night. It was absolutely wild and impressive. At the time, I thought it had a chance to make it over the mountains all the way across the state as it still had good form even exiting the Harrisburg region. It just wasn’t meant to be for the Lehigh Valley.

A disappointing 0.24” of rain and 3.51” for month to date. Was hoping for 0.75”+. It is starting to look the dry pattern is reasserting itself as the precip chances over the next 2 weeks are declining.

Definitely fizzled out on the approach eastern PA. .

There’s a large brushfire up in Carbon County around Jim Thorpe, last reported at 260 acres that is reportedly going to take at least a couple days to get under control. The southeastern part of the state got much needed rain, but it never materialized north of the cities in the Lehigh Valley.

I knew we would miss the cells last night. The longterm pattern has been quite dry. We were lucky to get rain in the southern LV in the first two weeks of the month. The northern LV and southern Poconos missed a lot of that rain. .

There are parts of the Alburtis postal code that sit up on the mountain there. I am very close to Alburtis and only halfway up that ridge and got around 3/4 of an inch. The ridge is high enough that during very marginal events you can see the snow line about halfway up if you’re looking at it from Rt 100. .

0.65” before the changeover to Snow here. We actually have a little less than 3/4” snow on nonpaved surfaces. .

It is interesting how this batch of precipitation hits a wall as it comes north and disintegrates. There has been minimal action in the Lehigh Valley and nothing points north. The northern LV and southern Poconos have seen very minimal rain in recent events.

Yes, that was the most rain i had in several months. We were very fortunate to be in the that band. I was literally in the center of it and had prolonged heavy rain. That band did not quite make it north of the 22 corridor. .

I ended up with 1.71” last night in the heavy showers and t-storm band but the ABE airport only had 0.18”. That was a sharp cut off! The northern Lehigh Valley certainly has gotten screwed over the last couple weeks, but I feel fortunate to get in the action last night. Only 45F this morning with some drizzle. .

You will need an ark soon! .

We bitched enough that mother nature gave in! Nice shower. Possibly more on the way. .

It has been frustrating lately. I think it’s a combo of that stable easterly flow off the cold Atlantic ruining our precip dynamics on days like today and bad luck where the lines setup when the flow turns around to the southwest. .

The Philly region has been doing much better than the Lehigh Valley with rain. I only got 0.18 this am, and the airport, a bit further north, only got a few hundredths of an inch. The northern LV in general has seen very little rain, even earlier in the week.

43 F and a cold rain from this line of showers. Less than 1/10 of an inch of rain but it still feels like bonus rain. .

It’s amazing how the lawns greened up and the trees budded overnight. .

I am a few miles south of you and I am at 1.12” as this winds down, maybe with luck i hit 1.20”. During the worst of it the first line slightly split around me, which was my limiting factor. The airport is at 1.5” and likely hits 1.75” in the next update. If I had to guess I would say Emmaus to Coopersburg got close to 2”. Overall I am happy. Not a drought buster but we did well. .