yep, you're in the game. some of those totals include sunday night / monday. Jack on the RGEM is like 8-10" in the Taconics. Been a while since they've had a nice early season dump.
It would be great to window that over the northeast US and limit it to known winter precip events.
Yes it's an IMBY interest but not just as a weenie... in terms of weighted impact those are the highest value runs.
Agree it looks good right now, but too close. I'm comfy betting on a NW trend at day 4 in early Dec that depends on a cf penetrating into warmish ocean water and a baroclinic zone setting up offshore or near shore.
Not only do I expect this to be rain IYBY I expect it to be mostly rain IMBY too. So not really a homer post. Dendrite's scenario from a few mins ago would be perfect here and hope he's right. But we've seen a steady march NW from the suppressed nonsense a few days ago. NAM IMO will confirm eventually and climo is on the side of elevated interior event.
In that case we just hug climo... which is basically the GFS... a nice hit for the elevated interior.
As an aside the euro AI is only worth looking at like you'd look at a car on fire on the side of the road.