It would be great to window that over the northeast US and limit it to known winter precip events.
Yes it's an IMBY interest but not just as a weenie... in terms of weighted impact those are the highest value runs.
Agree it looks good right now, but too close. I'm comfy betting on a NW trend at day 4 in early Dec that depends on a cf penetrating into warmish ocean water and a baroclinic zone setting up offshore or near shore.
Not only do I expect this to be rain IYBY I expect it to be mostly rain IMBY too. So not really a homer post. Dendrite's scenario from a few mins ago would be perfect here and hope he's right. But we've seen a steady march NW from the suppressed nonsense a few days ago. NAM IMO will confirm eventually and climo is on the side of elevated interior event.
In that case we just hug climo... which is basically the GFS... a nice hit for the elevated interior.
As an aside the euro AI is only worth looking at like you'd look at a car on fire on the side of the road.
She'll probably need to go at least 3 times before it's worth it. If it's that far it's a harder call IMO. Ellen-only day tix can be had for cheap sometimes, especially weekdays