White Gorilla

Oh well, what's going to be is what is going to be. Let's see what the mesos say tomorrow.

It is time to now cast and look more at the mesos, less at the globals.

Yeah for us it was because it was fringe city the rest of the winter for the interior

Light, fluffy and deep

My area in Poughkeepsie right on the 6-12, 12-18 line. Hope you are right!

Let me say this... Those of you who may miss out on big snow this time, the winter storm parade is just getting started.

Starting tonight, I will be watching how real time observations upstream may match or not match model data projections to better predict accuracy. Actually, that has already begun to be discussed I believe. Regardless of what the models say now, it is soon game time and we watch play by play. Time soon for the mesos to chime in.

Not to mention that more snow and less ice would be easier to remove!

God, if POU can get a foot, I will be thrilled. I am expecting only 8 max with sleet as preservative on top. Oh, to be in Albany for this one....

A nice solid pack coming up with more to top it next week and beyond.. Snowy times are here again.

Exciting times ahead boys. Sit back, relax, and have a cold one (or hot one).

As disappointing as this winter has been so far, we all need to chill, yours truly included. We have two more months left of winter and all it will take is one big snowstorm to help us forget about our disappointment so far. Things are shaping up more favorably with baby steps.

Front end thump hopefully gives the majority of us at least several inches before Uncle Warm takes over. Even up here in Dutchess County, I am expecting more ice than snow which sucks. We are getting to the crucial window for guidance now so all model solutions have now a lot more weight. Don't like the warming trends.

Still a long way to go as far as model confidence as far as I am concerned. Better data sampling tomorrow and Friday should bring all this into better focus.

I respect your opinion and I hope it comes true because snow is way better than ice and nobody wants a rainstorm. However, for my own education, I would like to know what trending global indeces lead you to believe in stronger confluence resulting in a more southerly track and/or earlier redevelopment. I am curious. What are the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA and MJO projected to be around that time that would give credence to your prediction? I am assuming that the stronger confluence and earlier transfer and redevelop will be due to stronger blocking than currently being projected? Honestly, not trying to be cute here.. I am needing some education about what teleconnection indeces influence a more southerly and earlier redevelop resulting in higher snow..

Very worried about freezing rain amounts here in the Hudson Valley. I am here in Poughkeepsie and I hope more sleet than ZR.. All snow is off the table, you have to go up to Albany for any decent chance at that given how the upper levels warm and models often underestimate how quickly snow goes over to ice in these setups with the warm nose above. I would rather it go to plain rain here instead of ZR, but that is not going to happen up here given the projected strength of low level cold. I don't think NYC area sees much ZR given temps closer to freezing and heavier rates of precip minimizing ice accretion... However, up here, temps in the 20s would support ZR no matter how heavy the precip.. We don't want widespread power outages especially with the dangerous cold after the storm..

I live where you are and agree violently.

Much prefer snow to ice obviously. What eventually happens will be interesting given the epic battleground between warm and cold here. We are right in the middle of it. Still many more model solutions to go before the event, so hold caution drawing any conclusions yet, even with some model agreement. Should be even a wilder few days coming up.

Everyone is white, all snow.

Not going to get much invested in individual model runs until Thursday or Friday when sampling is better. For now, I look at possible trends across runs, that is it..

Can the same be said about the Euro often being too amped? Perhaps a compromise between the two will verify.

Is Ukie number 2 in verification scores?

Will be interesting to see which model eventually caves

With no blocking, what is going to force the primary to redevelop?

Wondering if snow cover laid down by the Friday storm could force a track further South than what models might suggest.