MillvilleWx

Storm is definitely going through extra tropical transition. A fairly stout axis of deformation is beginning to unfold around I-77 down in the Carolinas. We’ll see that come into play for the heaviest axis of precip. The Shenandoah is going to get hammered, as well as the adjacent Blue Ridge. Areas that desperately needed rain out there should get it.

D1 ERO out on the main WPC page with discussion. D2-3 will be out around 430 PM, at the latest

For those curious on the latest blend probabilities: 07z NBM >2” Storm Total: 50-80% area wide west of the Bay 07z NBM >3” Storm Total: 30-60% with a max of 65-70% over Carroll and Frederick Counties (North of I-70) 07z NBM >5” Storm Total: 10-25% area wide with highest northwest of the Fall line

This usually happens as we get closer with convectively dominant systems. Unlike usual tropical impacts that have a broader QPF distribution, this one will have a more defined heavy rain axis as the circulation gets absorbed into the front. The timing of the trough picking up Debby and interacting with the front will be crucial for where the heaviest rain will fall. As of now, the consensus is along and west of the Fall line for greatest threat of 2+” tomorrow. We’ll see how defined that stripe will be as we get closer. There’s a shot someone gets 4-5” of rain if a train echo develops, but anyone outside of the band gets less than half of that. Nature of these types of systems. It’ll be fairly progressive Thursday night through Friday as well once it gets picked up.

We have a day by day breakdown via our website, I believe sites like Weatherbell and Pivotal can be broken down day by day as well! There’s going to be some scattered convection later today through the evening that could put down some local totals exceeding 1” with the best chance likely along and north of Rt 50. Slight Risk ERO out for the Delmarva to about I-95, which was continuity from my forecast yesterday. A new update will be out around Noon (16z) for the ERO. QPF update out by 130PM (1730z). Similar cadence all year if you’re wondering!

That was one hell of an ERO desk shift today with more to come this week. Not going to lie, I had a lot of fun. Love the challenge. If you ever want to know if that’s me doing the forecast, check the Excessive Rainfall Discussion and look for “Kleebauer” on the sign off. Hoping we bring home the goods this week.

I’ll see what I can come up with

One of the tools we’ve been utilizing for forecasts in violatle setups has been AI models because they have a deep data set to work off of and don’t utilize complex physical properties to base the forecast. They are good for assessing track trends based on the current data instituted in initialization then go off pattern recognition for future evolution. Not always right, but can give a ballpark of what to expect. AI focus has been along the coastal plain and less inland advancement of deep tropical moisture. This has been the case for multiple days on the ECMWF AIFS and Graphcast, as well as the GFS Graphcast. This should be a red flag for the previous GFS/ECMWF iterations that showed wildly deviant outcomes compared to AI. This is the next Gen of tools to use to monitor potential trends, especially when the AI guidance is steady state in the forecast. There is still a lot of assessment to be done to analyze just how well the AI models are verifying, so it’s not full proof, but just like when the deterministic is wildly different from its ensembles, that should be a clue as to the expected trend. Another note is AI is not practical for rainfall/precip magnitude but more for a general placement of organized precip based in large scale synoptic regimes. It still struggles with disorganized convective patterns due to the intrinsic variables at hand with complicated thermodynamic processes that control the initiation prospects. That might be a bit before AI catches on there, so take those types of outputs with a grain of salt.

Only 0.04” so far. A quick moving shower dropped a few hundredths earlier. Getting skirted to the north by the big storm over Southern FDK. 81/75

0.7” on the nose here in North Frederick. Temp down to 73° Wife and I were driving to Jimmie Cone earlier and the heavens opened up. Still got my ice cream. Nothing was going to keep us from the scrumptious high butter fat creamy goodness.

Also did an assessment of my rainfall this year around mi casa. Looks like 27.40” so far this year according to a station very close to me. Jives with the surrounding totals. I’m kind of shocked Northern FDK has had that much. Unfortunately, the totals to my south are not nearly as good Sorry to all my southern FDK/Ballanger Creek peeps

Definitely a better shot at convection further north today, although a sneaky vort max on the southeastern periphery of the ridge could surprise south of I-70 somewhere. Not a great chance, but non-zero. Tomorrow is the best shot at widespread convection. We really could use a convective blob across the region. Fingers crossed I’m ready for fall

I have officially been back in MD for a full year, today! WOW has time flown. Still feels amazing to be back. I’m never leaving again.

It’s nice to be in the home stretch of summer. First NFL-ish game of the year tonight so that means we are on the backside of hell…I mean summer

Looks like the Orioles didn’t want to mortgage the future and trade their top talent this go around. Apparently the asking price for multiple top end starters was ridiculous as per some reports from GM’s around the league. Guys like Crochett and Skubal ended up not being traded anyway. I still don’t think this team is good enough to win a WS with the bats, let alone the bullpen. We’ll see how it all plays out, but sucks we have a top 3 pitcher in baseball for one year and probably won’t win it. He’s as good as gone after this season

There has to be a bigger reason to not call him up. Team control, his defense, or his K-rate because otherwise, I don’t get it

I like both trades so far today. We definitely need another bigger name at starter. Time to shake things up for this team. It’s that time of year

The issue right now is the forcing keeps sliding south of the area towards the Tidewater. We had one day where the trough was amplified enough to send stuff north, but it went around us and into PA. Tough break. I know my parents at the shore got hammered the other night with 3+ from the monster that was tornado warned. We really could use a synoptic gully washer at this point.

Got 1.12” from last nights stuff in North Frederick. Missed 2+ by 5-10 miles. I’ll take it though.

Quite the muggy evening up in Frederick, but at least the blazing sun is down to keep it reasonable. Enjoying a mixed rum cocktail to make me feel like I’m in Barbados while it feels like Barbados 82/71

If we’re gonna do heat, might as well go for the gusto

Hey guys. Just letting you know that @WxWatcher007is doing okay and is safe. No signal currently. Quite the hit down there this morning.

What a wild several month stretch for my household but we are now 100% and ready to roll for the rest of the year. Hope everyone is doing well!

Outside the come from behind victory in Jan 2000, there was no winter to be found in these parts. I was really young, but I remember basically getting out early all 3 years from a lack of snow days used. It was a rough stretch. Add in the March 2001 fail and dismal 2002 and you got yourself a 5 year stretch of rough winters. 2003 is when it broke, and it broke big. There’s been terrible streaks of futility throughout history in these parts. We’re on a cooler, that’s for sure.

I’m keeping my eye on that one. That’s got a chance to hold together over to my area.