MillvilleWx

Hmmmm. Getting a little concerned about the valley here in Frederick. Might see the heaviest snow go south and east of here. We shall see later. Still looks like 2-4” is possible for me, but heavier totals might just miss here. Hopefully it plays out like the NAM, but I never want to put faith in that model when other hi-res are starting to get that look I’m mentioning.

This. Before (Few days back) it was looking like that was favored for areas well to our north so I was content with the scraps. Now the trend is very much for this to happen overhead and the soundings/spatial outputs for 7H VV’s and correlated QG-convergence panels indicates that’s the expectation. We will see rates in some bands surpass what just occurred from the past event. It’s a vigorous jet streak we are working with. If you know anything about synoptic scale meteorology and translating to the mesoscale, this is prime for some surprises, so long as we aren’t being lead astray by guidance.

It’s going to be snow globing if these depictions are right. Amazing

Holy crap. It got a clue!!! Never thought I’d see that. Good stuff

The RAP is consistent with a band of heavy snow from the northern neck and adjacent WV panhandle up through Frederick into northern Carroll. Like, super consistent and the ECMWF had it for many runs in a row at one point as well. Might have something here! Makes sense when you look at the 7H VV panels. It is textbook for that corridor. Let’s get it!!

We’re a snow town again!

30/19 5N Frederick A crisp winter night awaiting a winter wonderland by the morning. Picking up some friends of ours at the airport in 2.5 hrs. I’ll be up very late tonight. Company is staying so they can catch an evening flight tomorrow to Iceland. Need to prep for the time change. Both meteorologists too. We are going to stay up and when it snows, go for a Sheetz run. What an awesome week I planned for this staycation. I hope my work is handling things okay. It’ll be nice to go back fully recharged and ready to roll. Let’s rock

Good to see. It’ll be fully caught up by 00z Saturday

Ain’t no way I’m putting my luck out there lol. Whoever started the last one should do honors. Play the hot hand

It’s an art. Even I’m impressed at the consistency all these years

@ravensrule

No problem! It’s definitely possible, but narrowing exactly where that band could setup is tough and a nowcast situation. I think it’s plausible somewhere between south-central Jersey coast down to about OCMD extending to the western shore of the Bay. A lot of area and still a question mark. If I HAD to pick a spot, I like northern DE through northern MD along the M/D as the primary spot for something like that just based on trends and positioning of the upper jet. Will be watching intently along with the NWS because that’s the kind of stuff that can trigger a Hazard upgrade (WWA -> WSW).

Man. It’s like I should work for the National Weather Service

The HRRR couldn’t even get the storm right while it was happening earlier this week. I would ignore it until it gets a clue. Other hi-res and ECMWF are your best bets at the moment.

One things for sure in this setup; it will start out cold and end cold. 20s for many for much of, if not the whole event. Wet bulb between 23-27 from north to south. 7H VV signals show decent ascent aligned with the LER of a prominent jet streak. There will be a 4-6 hr period of good snow rates that should accumulate efficiently. This is a textbook WWA event for everyone. WSW possible across areas north of I-70, but not impossible. Likely less than 20%, but that’s better than 0%. Heaviest snow should be within Frederick/Carroll/northern Baltimore Co/northern Harford, but don’t count out VA northern neck and WV Panhandle either. M/D line is favored right now, but as Bob mentioned earlier, someone will sneak a mini-jack outside the northern tier if the banding materializes.

And to think it was wildly underdone for many on that map. A truly epic storm

Definitely agree. It’s just the historical trend that has occurred for you guys up that way. A little orographic assistance helps locally with ascent and ratios. Should be a winter wonderland in your area by tomorrow afternoon. Loving the trends this morning. This vort is pretty decent, so as long as it isn’t too far north, there’s some solid 7H VV’s and strong LER dynamics to work with. Probably see some scattered banding structures out of this one.

Hey guys. Thought I’d stop by and provide my forecast for the coming event. Looks like PA is solidly in my Zone D with a small piece in the Catoctins. Liking 3-5” for much of the subforum. Min of 2” and max of 7” in the highest elevations if everything broke right. Think 3-5” is a good call for the time being. Let’s freshen up this snow!

I like 3-5” for your hood at your elevation. I think people like you, @HighStakes @psuhoffman up there towards the M/D should do pretty well with this one! Be sure to add a max right over your house if you’re doing the Winter Desk

I think the average will be right around that 10-12:1, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Parrs Ridge crew above 800’ and the Catoctins get closer to 14-15:1 overall. They seem to pull that in these types of setups. Not a crazy storm and one where the max is limited in potential, but snow on snow is always welcomed.

Thought this would be a good time to make a rudimentary snow map for ole times sake. Apologies for the crude map design. Doing this on my phone, but still works good enough. Each area is a zone with a first call forecast. Might have a few edits later, but this could very well be my only call. Forecast Zone A: Nothing-1” (Trace begins north of Potomac latitude); Up to 2” possible if everything breaks right Zone B: 1-2” w/ max to 3” if everything breaks right Zone C: 2-4” (Highest across Parrs Ridge; elevations >600’) Zone D: 2.5-5” w/ local max of 6” (Highest along the M/D Line and elevations >850’. Lowest in elevations <275’ in valleys) Zone E: 5-10” Catoctins: 4-6” w/ max to 7”

20° at the top of the hill and 10° 1 mile away in a valley. Incredible

You guys are putting way too much time into a NS dominant system. Do yourself a favor and prepare for nothing and hope for more than that. I don’t waste my time with those evolutions in the Mid Atlantic. We aren’t New England.

I imagine it holds or shifts the slightest bit north. It’s been consistent recently, which is great for my hood being consistently over 3”. Good dynamics should help with this one so long as the jet doesn’t cross north of us.

Pretty neat microclimate in my part of Frederick. Low was only 17° this morning but the neighborhood across the way of Monocacy in a “bowl” got down to 12°. More decoupling occurring naturally at lower elevation. Fast forward to now and that same station is 3° warmer than my place (26 vs 23) so the elevation is again playing a role. It helps with snow as well being at over 310ft while places around me are 60-80 ft lower. Pretty cool