MillvilleWx

Mt Damascus coming through!

For those of us north of I-70, our good snow is not for later. Enjoy all the stuff now but the show for us has a bit before it takes effect. Widespread 3-5” with local to 6” is a very solid call right now from Sterling. Things materializing well and on time. A beautiful day

That is beyond embarrassing. I’m over 1” in north Frederick now. It’s light to borderline moderate and stacking fairly easily

Well…did you get the spoon?

This ^ The NAM has its faults, but when it has the right setup in line, it can be very useful. This seems like one of those times it has a good handle on the synoptic evolution and handling the thermals properly. It’s been fairly rock steady for a long succession of runs. Great to see considering the HRRR isn’t just out to lunch, I think it’s on vacation…

Hey guys. Looks like a nice high end advisory type event for part of the subforum. There’s a shot for low end warning criteria if the dynamics at play set up just right. 3-5” with as much as 7” max for almost everyone here. Enjoy!

It’s been fairly steady so far with the handling of everything, so it might have some merit. Areas along and SE of 95 would have a shot at mixing if the coastal formed close to the coast. Just a nature of the flow between 925-800mb advecting warm air. Ocean temps are above normal right now as should be the case, so it would promote better warm component being ushered in within the BL. Those NW of 95 should be fine. It’ll be close imo for the district and surrounds, that’s if the guidance has the handle of the coastal enhancement correctly.

This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned.

He moved on to the next storm

Wife sent this to me

Btw, we picked up my wife’s car from dealership after getting some work done down in Gaithersburg off Watkins Mill. She had 1” on her car pretty easily when we got it (Body shop so was sitting in the lot). I think MoCo up through Howard and Carroll/Baltimore Co’s should do well with this one. Baltimore and Carroll will get theirs later.

Just came in here to say this. It is a legit light snow that’s accumulating on everything. Radar looks great for this early. It’s beautiful out

0.1-0.2” from round 1 This was definitely a win for models not named the HRRR that was bone dry across the other side of the Potomac. Very light snow falling now in 5N Frederick. Expecting 2-4” with max of 5-5.5” here.

There’s a lot of variables involved, but population is taken into consideration. Only one piece of the puzzle

Agreed with this. I have a max of 6” somewhere in this one, but the concept is the same. A nice storm for much, if not everyone here.

I have not paid much attention to this setup because I’ve been focused with the short term threat, so I will differ to the others. @CAPE has a great breakdown and I agree on his analysis. This setup is the precursor to the next one, so we have a bit of a ways to go. By Tuesday, we’ll have a better handle.

I know it’s just a tiny little artifact in it all, but the WSSI has a tiny dot just north of FDK and that is basically where I live. I’ve never seen anything like that before. Hilarious

It’s not. It has a lot of work to do imo.

Ahhh. Thanks! I must’ve missed that part, so I appreciate the info. Being at the National Center, I’m semi out of the loop on the HazSimp process since we don’t issue anything at WPC. Feel bad I didn’t know that.

I’m looking at 2-4” with jack of 5-6” in the best banding and over the ridge areas. I’ll be curious to read their disco

Wow. Sterling going guns blazing. That is wild. Things you love to see…it

Sent you a PM

Now that I’m back east, I need to come have brunch with you guys at some point and stumble out of it.

We definitely will. I don’t see these four ever changing. It was a good compromise of the simplification process.