MillvilleWx

Yeah. I think the 5” is pretty dead south of M/D except for maybe your hood, but 2-4” is still decent for those NW of US29. 7H fronto went into PA and that pretty much killed any chance at the max for here. Annoying, but it is what it is. This is still pretty nice to see.

IMG_7821.mov

SN+ Giant flakes. These are some very impressive dendrites. Everything has caved, including the parking lot. This is easy 1+”/hr

Moderate to bordering heavy snow now in Frederick. Massive flakes. Cars completely covered and grass totally whitened up.

Steady light snow 5N Frederick

I'll try to fine tune this forecast with the new 12z data set. Might be bumping totals a bit

Colleague and I were just talking about this. Pivotal utilizes the surface as part of the formula for ratios on Kuchera and it's weighted too heavily. If it started off the surface from 925 and up, it would be much much better. The Kuchera ratios are better on WeatherBell, but still might be a touch high.

Rough snow forecast outline (Medium Confidence): Zone A: 6-10" Zone B: 3-5" w/ stripe of 5-6" within the 85H frontogen band that sets up from NoVA through SoMD. The potential does include the DC metro, but best chance for highest totals will lie on the edge and outside the beltway. Uncertainty for Southern DE due to thermals Zone C: 4-6" in the Catoctins and adjacent terrain Zone D: 4-6" w/ max of 7" elevation areas above 650ft. This is tricky depending on 7H frontogenesis placement Most of region: 2-5" fairly widespread. Higher totals within the Parrs ridge area from NW MoCo through western HoCo into the Carroll/Frederick border (Clarksburg/Damascus/Mount Airy). 1-2" for areas south of Zone B

Was this the same storm someone said they didn't believe you had two inches of snow, so you took a picture with a newspaper with the date on it in the background of the ruler in the snow and a thumbs up? One of my favorite things I've ever seen on this forum.

That's pretty specific for Frederick

This is a fun little event coming up. 2-4" of snow for areas north of Rt 50 is a good look imo. Good timing too. Later Friday into Saturday. Some night time snow heading into a weekend. Good time to break out a good drink and watch it fall.

There was just no way Ballanger Creek, who flipped over 30-45 min after me had close to 3” of snow, equal to places to my north. It’s maddening. I measured 2.25” to 2.4” basically everywhere. Not like the snow drifted. Maybe I missed SOME compaction with the snow at such low SLR, but Yeesh.

I call BS on the Ballanger Creek total. No way they got close to Thurmont or Emmitsburg. I’m north of them and didn’t even have that much. Dept of Highways has had some weird totals over this winter. Idk how they measure.

2/13 - 2.3” Total* - 11.5” *Missed a snow event in January. No reading so likely closer to 12-12.5”

Snow coming to an end here in 5N Frederick 2.3” is the total. Not bad for lower elevation. It dumped for hours this morning. Very scenic

5N Frederick

Officially flipped to snow at 5:07am. Massive flakes

This is very impressive. Sleet mixing in now with the rain. Only a matter of time.

Yeah. You aren’t too far from me to the north. You should do fairly well with this one. Enjoy the nukage

HRRR is a touch slow with the R/S line advancement, but it’s not too far off. Maybe 30 min. Snowing near Waynesboro now according to mPing. The bright banding on radar is wild.

Whenever it flips, there will be steady rippage for 2-4 hrs before it slowly lets up. Precip rates are around 0.15-0.25”/hr at this point according to the local weather station right across the street. That’s plenty for 1-2”/hr snowfall rate. Will lose a little in the beginning to cool the surface, but once it’s established, off to the races.

Snowing in the Catoctins just to my north. Temp and dew point are plummeting in my hood as we speak. Probably a hour or so before it flips and rips. Seeing snow reports on mPing across the PA line. HRRR doing a solid job with the R/S line advancement.

It’s close. He’s not highlighting the elevation areas within the 1-3” shading, so it’s a broadbrush. Could be right, but I hate maps that don’t provide the detail along the ridge areas that ride along MD27 and along the M/D. For a quick map, it’s not bad.

I really do think there is going to be an elevation marker that will make or break snow totals in this one. My gut is around 500ft +/- 50ft. It’s going to be that tight. I do like the northern crew on a line from the Catoctins across north-central Carroll and Baltimore Counties, then the northern tier of Harford and Cecil towards the PA line. Areas that have the best chance to do well are; Thurmont, Sabiasville, Taneytown, Emmitsburg, Manchester, Hampstead, Parkton, Jarrettsville, Norrisville, areas north of Rt 1 in Cecil, the entire southern tier of PA along the M/D. Additional areas that could cash decently include WV Panhandle, Mount Airy, Damascus, and terrain in Western HoCo. Any of these areas will have a shot at 2+” of snow imo with the best opportunity for high end advisory. Outside that is probably a 1-3” deal at best with the cutoff at 250ft elevation and south of I-66. This is my initial forecast just gleaning over everything and taking climo and BL temps into consideration.

Definitely the right call. Elevation areas north of I-70 I would be pretty excited.