poolz1

@frd I know you have seen the chatter regarding the lack of "coupling", for lack of a better term, between the strat and trop. Any idea if there are signs of this making a connection down the road? If not, I wonder how much this all matters.... I have zero knowledge if this is a common theme sometimes when in comes to the PV or if this is an odd occurrence. I guess the fact that the SPV will weaken can only be a good thing but if we dont get that connection to the trop then, we may end up chasing our tails trying to determine its effects on sensible wx. ETA:

I agree...If we are solely basing the dec pattern on projecting the MJO, then by Dec 1st we should see the colder pattern coming on LR ens. Although, this tour of the cold phases looks very similar to the last....even down to the slower movement in 1/2. Who knows though...forecasting the MJO past a week is iffy.

GFS may be correct to moderate the cold and does have a bias toward cold in the LR. But, the euro has indicated a sub 520 several runs in a row.

Just a thought...not an expectation. Looking at the pattern relaxing just a bit in the long range with the higher heights in AK breaking down. Basically the same pattern we are in now but less anomalous. I could envision that Aleutian low pumping heights back up in AK but now we have some monster ridging in scan pushing toward the pole. If the Aleutian low plays nice you can see how a true ridge bridge could form pretty quickly and really get the pattern cranking by early Dec. EPS is close to pulling this off at the end of the run. GEFS are outside in the yard playing soccer with a football bat.

You know, I saw this tweet this morning and thought I would check it out this evening. Honestly, I would have completely forgotten about it if not for this reminder. Much appreciated!

Low to mid teens N&W Wednesday morning...around 20 in the cities. Fresh snowpack ftw...

You are definitely getting old... Lol. I'm getting old too. My teenage daughter reminds me daily! I use Twitter for weather, sports, and fishing. I have no friends on Twitter and never post. But, I follow most of the folks that frd follows and I can say that none of the Twitter posts in here from frd are from "weenies." The previous thread posted was from well educated, level-headed and reputable folks. If you follow the right people Twitter is like the weather forum for a lot of professional Mets. Not everything is meant to be gospel... Just professionals tossing out ideas and thoughts. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

EPS with a very similar look. Both 12z ens runs with improvements in the areas needed to keep this train on track.

Another significant negative SOI value today. - 34.49 On a strat note:

Great to have your contributions as we approach game time, Bob! The pattern advertised over the next 2 weeks is certainly an overall positive. I agree. Just not looking for a reversal of any kind...a pull back or brief reshuffle is fine and almost a guarantee. I wait for the weeklies to come out so I have the answer...lol.

I was thinking that I hope thats not where the very long range looks are taking us (+AO). Out there in lala land and is bound to change but I dont like losing the +heights in AK and breaking that link with the ridging in Siberia. You can see how fast that vortex retreats to pole and tries to hold hands with our Aleutian low. On a glass half full note...maybe the scan ridge bullies the pattern anyway and we snap back to a -AO.

Its that time of year already? Degreed mets complaining about basement dwellers posting snow maps on twitter. I have always found this to be odd...I mean I get it but, come on. Twitter is a great way to get your message out for free. The down side is it is free for everyone to get their own message out. Love it or leave it...

A heck of a high pressure chain that stretches over the pole. GEFS with 4 or 5 cold shots over the next 15 days.

I saw that tweet and was hoping he was just trolling with his choice of words describing the cold. Highs in the teens and 20s in the upper Midwest won’t devastate anyone.

Factor in the progressive bias of the gfs and the amped bias of the euro and we should be shoveling next Friday.

Eps favors those climo regions you mentioned. That's OK tho.. Just keep sending down the cold and laying down the snow. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Looks like today is the beginning of a persistent pattern. GEFS front 5 days ---> last 5 days. D11-16 looking like an even colder pattern with the scan ridge pushing and maybe a -AO starting to form. That Aleutian low looks great...

27.6 for the low....Heavy frost. Classic looking Nov morning along with a bunch of wild turkey in the yard.

Wow! 80 in Fredericksburg...impressive. 68 here at noon. Currently 73.

Just a little breezy so far today. Although, this brief moderate shower moving through has produced gusty conditions. Reminds me of a tropical system. Roughly 30mph or so but you can see how 50+ will be pretty easy with some convection. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

We have a tulip magnolia as well. 50/50 green and yellow right now. No doubt though,that tree goes quick. Love the tree but hate the fallen leaves. A pain to blow...especially if damp. A side note...I pruned the heck out of that tree in early March this year and have never seen so many blooms than this spring.

Dews pushing 70 just ahead of the front Thursday. Hoping we get trick or treating in before the line of storms push in. Looks nasty...

Looks like I’ll just wait for Olaf and stormpic to post and take the avg.

I think this is generally true. But, there are instances where you can can say things "should" trend either way. With the advertised h5 look... One can see how an ensemble would wash things milder out in time. True cross polar flow, if this look stays, will produce colder anomalies than currently advertised. We have seen this a handful of times already this fall with the Western cold. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Maybe our first shot of winter as we approach mid November. Perfect timing....EPS agrees with the cross polar flow. Would think this look grows colder in time.