poolz1

Welp, that was a wrong assessment of the sat. Nothing but clouds.

Looks like some clearing moving in from the west. Hoping it times it just right...

I tend to forget how a stout west based block can create havoc....Its only on paper right now but its a sight for sore eyes after the past few years..

12z GFS op puts into question the storm to open up Dec being a big cutter. Much dif h5 look...not surprisingly being a D9 op run but I think it shows how tough that time period will be for models to predict.

Who knows if the GEFS is on to something? All caveats obviously but man....what a weenie run. Similar to the EPS but the -EPO at the end of the run is bonkers...

18z Gefs with a stout -NAO at D10....50/50 is perfect....ridge starting to push into NW Can/AK. Dec 3-5th looking better and better...

@frd Yes, that is certainly the look we have been used to. According to HM this look has been anticipated and is also anticipated to change to the more classic look that the Gefs is advertising. Maybe a case of the gefs rushing the pattern again but right now HM seems to be on a roll with his predictions. At least the blah pattern coming up will give us plenty of time to micro analyze each LR run! Lol

Love the look up top but also really nice to see that Aleutian low become established again. EPS is not as enthusiastic about that feature....wait and see.

Both the GEFS and the EPS pretty much agree with their own MJO forecast in the LR. MJO on both models has been changing quite a bit over the past few days...just like the advertised H5 look over NA. EPS likes a reemergence in phase 2 while the GEFS like phase 8/1. SOI with another -27.36 today...same exact # as yesterday. That doesnt happen too often.....

Euro with a low over Pitt at 996mb this run. 00z had it over western OH at 998. A shift south and east with the overall track but not weaker....

12z gefs def more bullish but overall it continues the theme it has been advertising. Some pretty rapid weakening toward the end of the run.

That ridge north of HI is a little reminiscent of last last year. Looks like the GFS and Euro pretty much agree on the progression of the MJO....slowly weakening into the COD after phase 2. GEFS are a little jumpy in the LR but continue the cold look which agrees with that MJO progression.... Hard to get a good read on what that first week of Dec will feature. I'd lean GEFS just for this reason and the EPS has been playing a little catch up here lately. It doesnt happen often but sometime the GEFS lead the way....

Well, That should apply a little pressure.....lawdy

I wish there was an option to remove the color scheme sometimes....Though not a great looking pattern on that 7 day mean just looking at the height lines looks like a +PNA that reaches all the way north of AK. Washed out of course but the anomalies make it a little deceiving imo.

Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one. For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting?

I agree with you...If you are looking at the strat for a strictly mby sport then, you are probably doing it wrong. I find it interesting though.... I do agree with some others here that I would prefer just a consistent weakening, stretching and knocking around. Other drivers, right now at least, look to generally be in our favor this season and we dont need a big split for this winter to be decent or even possibly screw up a decent pattern.

@frd I really dont have any idea....It would be interesting to see some verifications. I have only been following the strat for a few years and realize its pretty complex. Complexity means slow learning due to a current hectic life! lol

If the latest GEFS have generally the right idea (yuge IF) we get cross polar flow to open up Dec. Its all speculation of course but jumping on what Ralph said....it does seem that we may settle back into Aleutian trough, -EPO and scan ridging toward the first of Dec. A lot of things to be cautiously positive about.

Kind of surprised that vort did not stay under us that run looking at H5. Heck of a 50/50ish low with ridging up west of Hudson Bay. All caveats apply obviously... Lots of energy running around with a nice block shifting west thru GL and a ridge popping on the west coast. Hopefully we keep getting these looks on the ops.

No doubt....Also, the same model throwing out epic west based blocks at 12z. Use at your own peril I guess.

Hit 35 today but spent 19 hours below freezing. Not bad for 11/13 and no snow pack.

BWI - 36.5" DCA - 25.3" IAD - 42.8" RIC - 13.4" SBY - 16"

Check out the steam coming the "warmer" lake on traffic cam. Deep Creek... https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=60ffe582008000c8005bd336c4235c0a

20 With the truck dusted this morning. A nice early taste of winter...The smell of dead leaves and chimney smoke this morning gets the juices flowing for winter.

I loved 13-14....The "cold smoke" winter! 14-15 was great but I was fringed on the big storm that year. 13-14 and 09-10. Both incredibly snowy winters but two different beasts. Its a tough decision as to which one I'd prefer a repeat....I do live for the big storms and to have 3 in one season! But, constant tracking and then scoring on most of them is pretty fulfilling. Even if they were not all 12"+ events.