poolz1

Welp, that was a wrong assessment of the sat. Nothing but clouds.

Looks like some clearing moving in from the west. Hoping it times it just right...

I tend to forget how a stout west based block can create havoc....Its only on paper right now but its a sight for sore eyes after the past few years..

12z GFS op puts into question the storm to open up Dec being a big cutter. Much dif h5 look...not surprisingly being a D9 op run but I think it shows how tough that time period will be for models to predict.

Who knows if the GEFS is on to something? All caveats obviously but man....what a weenie run. Similar to the EPS but the -EPO at the end of the run is bonkers...

18z Gefs with a stout -NAO at D10....50/50 is perfect....ridge starting to push into NW Can/AK. Dec 3-5th looking better and better...

@frd Yes, that is certainly the look we have been used to. According to HM this look has been anticipated and is also anticipated to change to the more classic look that the Gefs is advertising. Maybe a case of the gefs rushing the pattern again but right now HM seems to be on a roll with his predictions. At least the blah pattern coming up will give us plenty of time to micro analyze each LR run! Lol

Love the look up top but also really nice to see that Aleutian low become established again. EPS is not as enthusiastic about that feature....wait and see.

Both the GEFS and the EPS pretty much agree with their own MJO forecast in the LR. MJO on both models has been changing quite a bit over the past few days...just like the advertised H5 look over NA. EPS likes a reemergence in phase 2 while the GEFS like phase 8/1. SOI with another -27.36 today...same exact # as yesterday. That doesnt happen too often.....

12z gefs def more bullish but overall it continues the theme it has been advertising. Some pretty rapid weakening toward the end of the run.

Well, That should apply a little pressure.....lawdy

I wish there was an option to remove the color scheme sometimes....Though not a great looking pattern on that 7 day mean just looking at the height lines looks like a +PNA that reaches all the way north of AK. Washed out of course but the anomalies make it a little deceiving imo.

I agree with you...If you are looking at the strat for a strictly mby sport then, you are probably doing it wrong. I find it interesting though.... I do agree with some others here that I would prefer just a consistent weakening, stretching and knocking around. Other drivers, right now at least, look to generally be in our favor this season and we dont need a big split for this winter to be decent or even possibly screw up a decent pattern.

@frd I really dont have any idea....It would be interesting to see some verifications. I have only been following the strat for a few years and realize its pretty complex. Complexity means slow learning due to a current hectic life! lol

If the latest GEFS have generally the right idea (yuge IF) we get cross polar flow to open up Dec. Its all speculation of course but jumping on what Ralph said....it does seem that we may settle back into Aleutian trough, -EPO and scan ridging toward the first of Dec. A lot of things to be cautiously positive about.

No doubt....Also, the same model throwing out epic west based blocks at 12z. Use at your own peril I guess.

Hit 35 today but spent 19 hours below freezing. Not bad for 11/13 and no snow pack.

BWI - 36.5" DCA - 25.3" IAD - 42.8" RIC - 13.4" SBY - 16"

Check out the steam coming the "warmer" lake on traffic cam. Deep Creek... https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=60ffe582008000c8005bd336c4235c0a

20 With the truck dusted this morning. A nice early taste of winter...The smell of dead leaves and chimney smoke this morning gets the juices flowing for winter.

I loved 13-14....The "cold smoke" winter! 14-15 was great but I was fringed on the big storm that year. 13-14 and 09-10. Both incredibly snowy winters but two different beasts. Its a tough decision as to which one I'd prefer a repeat....I do live for the big storms and to have 3 in one season! But, constant tracking and then scoring on most of them is pretty fulfilling. Even if they were not all 12"+ events.

Had a nice mod snow shower about 45 min ago. Roof blizzard and everything! Light dusting...29/19

Odd looking returns. Same thing happening in CMD on LWX radar but def more enhanced off the bay. Wonder if there any reports of snow falling...There are a few of those returns out by me but I have clear skies.

@frd I know you have seen the chatter regarding the lack of "coupling", for lack of a better term, between the strat and trop. Any idea if there are signs of this making a connection down the road? If not, I wonder how much this all matters.... I have zero knowledge if this is a common theme sometimes when in comes to the PV or if this is an odd occurrence. I guess the fact that the SPV will weaken can only be a good thing but if we dont get that connection to the trop then, we may end up chasing our tails trying to determine its effects on sensible wx. ETA:

Its that time of year already? Degreed mets complaining about basement dwellers posting snow maps on twitter. I have always found this to be odd...I mean I get it but, come on. Twitter is a great way to get your message out for free. The down side is it is free for everyone to get their own message out. Love it or leave it...