JTA66

Still haven't replaced my broken rain gauge, but it sure "sounded" like an inch of rain fell. Currently 55F, feels like late March out there. I'm sure everyone saw donsutherland's post in the NY forum that the SOI is now negative for the second consecutive day. Let's hope it's a sign the MJO is moving along and not a hiccup before bouncing back into positive territory.

Flurries!!

The sun popped out here for about 1/2 hour. Again, very reminiscent of a tropical system -- deep blue skies overhead with dark storm clouds on the horizon in every direction. The clouds have since filled in; been sitting at 60F most of the day. The rain gauge is empty (there must be a crack or something) but the sump pumps are running non-stop.

Hmm...will old JB rule of thumb idea about snow within 10 days of thunder in the winter come into play??

Quick update from Paul Pastelok of AccuWx -- still going with a cold & stormy Jan and Feb. More ice events for central and lower mid-Atlantic. He also thinks there can be storms that "will result in one- to two-day disruptions and shutdowns". Fingers crossed!!

^^That would track with most of the winter outlooks I read. Dec would be the "mild" month. It hasn't been so up to this point (but our pattern relax is knocking at the door). Jan is the transition month, but when? Early/late? 2004-05 was a good winter around here, but we punted the first half of Jan with a mild pattern. Even 2002-03 (a year many are using as an analog) didn't feature a great Jan. We had some clippers, but it was mainly cold and dry. I remember looking at the bare ground and thinking we were wasting all our cold. Fortunately we scored big in Feb and now we all remember that winter fondly. Patience Iceman! I'm still not concerned with where we're headed. Even our best winters have uneventful stretches. If the Nino were collapsing or we were seeing a consolidated vortex over the pole, then I'd be concerned. Can this winter still fail? Sure. Maybe were due for a repeat of 72-73 or 79-80. But I'll start worrying about that after the New Year.

Getting some flurries now, too.

C'mon Haz, you've been around long enough to know how this works -- the first week of Dec is already in the books and we haven't had a dozen KU events yet! Time to pull the plug on winter and label it a "bust". Current 28F. I'm taking advantage of today's blow torch to get outside and put up Christmas lights.

Guess you can only ride the pattern-persistence train for so long.

Radar is really blossoming over the AC expressway and the returns are extending back towards the river. Any reports if anything is reaching the ground?

No model analysis here, just a thought on our overall weather since spring: It wants to precipitate. Sure, this event may very well end up squashed/squished/slide off the coast. But jeez, it seems we can't go more than a few days w/o something falling from the sky. I'm not expecting a HECS or MECS, (heck, it might just be a cold rain). But given the pattern since spring, it's hard to believe we'll end up high & dry.

The radar is incredible looking! If I didn't know better, I'd say there was a tropical entity off the NJ coast.

34F/16DP. Thought I saw brine on 309 this evening.

This! For me Nov is the "pre-season" -- tomorrow is just an exhibition game. Doesn't matter if we win or lose, I just want to see how the free agent signings and new draft picks look. Anything frozen that falls on 11/15 is good! I'll take it as a sign mother nature maybe tipping her hand at what this winter has in store for us. I recall too many Novembers with temps in the 70's and no hint of winter in sight.

Here's another one to add to the + column -- Paul Pastelok of AccuWx updated his winter outlook today. Changes to his earlier outlook include taking temps down in the NE while increasing snowfall in the I-95 corridor (DC to Boston). Top analogs include 1986/87, 1994/95, 2002/03. He notes 2002/03 is the best match atm.

It's nice seeing DT going all in (doesn't mean he's right, though). Say what you will about him, he's never struck me as the sort who'll hype cold & snow for the sake of hyping cold & snow.

Made it up to 69F after an overnight low of 65F. I don't mind the mild weather, but a little sun would have been nice. Looks like another weekend where it will be too wet to get much done in the yard.

Wow! Wee Willie Webber and Flexible Flyers -- you guys are really stirring up some old memories. I still have my Flexible Flyer. I've often considered putting out as a Christmas decoration but I'm afraid someone might walk off with it. Still, it's a shame it's done nothing more than sit in the garage all these years. (Great, now I feel compelled to go looking for it.)

First morning of the season I had to scrape frost off the windshield. It will get old fast, but kind of cool doing it the first time under the hunter moon with geese flying overhead.

Currently running +11.1F for the month. I don't see us getting below normal, but I am curious to see how much gets knocked off that number by Halloween. Had a high of 69F at midnight, dropped down to 57F and have since rebounded to 60F.

And you can get out of the shower and not have your clothes stick to you! 58F/53DP. Will probably shut the windows tonight because of the cold

Just hit 72F...my low for the day! Maybe a mini-Floyd for SNJ and Del? How far west of I-95 to the heavier rains extend? Looks like an interesting night ahead.

lol...it was an easy call. Yeah, feels like early August out there. Let's hope this is it. Less than 24 hours from now it's fall!!

Been sitting at 73F since midnight...nailed it!

67F for lows these last two evenings. I have one more day left to score my 70F min or greater (unless this is just an in-and-out cool shot and we go back in the soup for Halloween).