Boston Bulldog

Welp so 10” new at MRG… I was wrong lol

Radar looks pretty good for the spine right now, but I think BTV is seeing the same moisture issues PF is. Decent downgrade in totals, especially south of 89

Been the season of the double that’s for sure. The upper single chair has been getting absolutely crushed by wind pretty consistently.

Meh, this all seems like noise to me right now. I'm not taking away too much from 0z so far, some model convergence as expected. Another day or so of maddening model swings (though probably not as dramatic as today) overshadowing ensemble ticks, then we get some improved sampling and we begin to lock in if this thing goes or not. Goalposts narrowing a bit, but still wide.

Considering that myself and many other NE Mets will be departing the region for the American Meteorological Society’s annual meeting in NOLA right before this storm, of course it’s going to happen. The atmosphere does have a sense of humor.

Gilpin was indeed where I was for most of the day - man it felt deep, especially on the steeper pitch down by the road. 18” or 32”, it was great. I do hope to ski enough powder to eventually be able to discern amounts while in it! When it’s bottomless and flying in my face, tell me any large number and I’ll believe it.

Skinned out of Jay Pass today and checked out various lines on both sides of the road… that 32” is legit. Faceshots all day in some zones

It was dumping on 89 in Montpelier around 7pm. Route 2 was completely snow covered with a few inches as well. This portion of the event was definitely poorly forecast, BTV only had 20-30% PoPs south of 89 for this evening. HRRR had a little hint of some disorganized banding showing up, but guidance totally whiffed on the subtle boundary and upper level energy injection that created the zonally oriented band that extended beyond the mountains.

Spine has lit up again, good moisture feed in place across the northern ADK as well

Western slope cashing in on blocked flow right now, ski resort cams show that at least some of this is leaking over to the summits

Hoping it works out, though BTV did cut down totals a bit after mentioning a potential shorter duration event trend in their AFD.

BTV blew the upslope horn on the latest AFD Overall, snow totals look to range from less than an inch in the immediate valleys to 1-2 feet for the highest peaks. Most of the snow will fall during the back end of the storm.

While the upslope has seemingly been baked in for a few days now, synoptics have been ticking a bit better for NNE folks in recent runs. The mid level coastal transfer remains a bit of a mess but has trended towards a more coherent and dynamic CMC like solution. I do expect Canadian guidance to back off a bit though.

Pasty synoptic snow followed by persistent upslope would be a fantastic way to rebound from this thaw

Good sign that random bombs are showing up on guidance. A signal should coalesce as we get closer

Despite the coastal system passing well south, I noticed that as the models began to depict an offshore stronger system, there was a bit of an “upslopey” look that developed. It’s likely the deeper intensity of the coastal storm meant that the NW flow got moistened by Atlantic moisture wrapping in from Atlantic Canada. If there’s cold air in place and a strong low over Atlantic Canada, it’s gonna snow along the northern spine of the greens

BTV did end up issuing WWAs for the Champlain valley south of Burlington, likely a fluffy 5-6 in the areas most favored by the banding.

The Champlain lake effect machine has been turned on!

Would assume Blue Hill Observatory was the jackpot

Was on the wrong side of the CF in Canton for a while today, but have made up for it in this band. Dumping

Just drove across CF near route 138/Blue Hill. White rain east, 1+” west and side roads slushy/covered

35 and ocean effect rain

Just to the north of me sadly. Only occasional flakes right now. BHO likely getting pasted

Kicked off an obs thread… hoping there are enough flakes around this evening to justify! NOTE: This was done independent of the zonked NAM run

Across snow starved SE New England, this system has played with the heart strings of disillusioned snow enthusiasts. An incredible longwave setup with a less than ideal shortwave configuration. Late night celebrations at big NW ticks, deep late morning depression at 12z regressions. Frequent NAMings (another one might be underway right now). The SREFs have made an appearance (forgot those existed). The “coastal” low has even been depicted as far east as the Flemish Cap in recent days… and yet here we are with some hope for a Christmas surprise. The tracking has been brutal, and the potential payout for many is likely to be questionable to say the least. Despite all this, many are still in the game for 1-3” according to BOX, with some model depictions illustrating higher potential for eastern zones. Hoping to spark some good juju and break out the nowcast from the angsty cesspool the discussion thread has been over the past week. At the minimum it will likely be festive for some in the days leading up to Christmas, a vast improvement from recent years! Also congrats Hazey