Boston Bulldog

I don’t really buy the late week systems getting shredded to the extent modeling currently depicts. Shortwave buckshot within the chaotic synoptic soup is likely causing issues within modeling of vorticity. One packet should consolidate and push farther north/coherent than operational modeling is currently showing, though the blocking does put a cap on the peak latitude

Pretty wild seeing such dramatic positive anomalies over Kamchatka while also knowing the gigantic snowstorm they got out there a few weeks ago. Weather vs climate in a microcosm. Extreme begets extreme

It was pretty clear this was never coming. The setup was a thread the needle act given the rossby wave configuration, widespread synoptic support was never there for such a coup. Models provided a little excitement but the ensembles stood pretty firm. Next! Potential blocky gradient look at the end of next week. Playing with fire a bit but I'll take it for now

Spine crusher ongoing right now, seems focused on the western slopes and peaks along the MRV

That’s gotta be it, fully saturated column but no lift generating freezing fog… suddenly the model thinks there’s lift once it sees the terrain

Yeah looks great for the spine. I really hate how the 3K NAM is essentially useless at elevation. Watch the precip panels for any storm crossing the northern greens, the 3k just lights up the ridgelines with QPF when obviously nothing should be falling. That V shaped signature along the western slopes and into the spine on the GFS is a classic look though.

Huge dendrites drifting down in BOS within this last band, a great way to finish this event

Absolutely nuking in South End

I guess this means KBOS has an outside shot at 24” if they got into the same rates

Here come the easterly low level ocean bands. I can see 3-4 potential bands beginning to set up over the Bay, nosing into Cape Ann, KBOS, South Shore, and Plymouth. Expect echos to begin consolidating around these features I don't expect super high ratios from these, but growth should be better given the lower level nature of the flow

Looks like some lift from 850mb fronto is crashing in to erode the northern extent of the dry slot over CT. IMO this is one of the first signs of how the coastal reflection is beginning to modify the overall structure of the system, which is attempting to consolidate dynamics towards vertical alignment. Looking downstream, BOS and points north should benefit. EDIT: Just missed @ORH_wxman's latest radar update, only further affirms these processes

Higher end totals in EMass will depend on how efficient the ocean enhanced stuff is once this WAA period ends in a couple hours. Given how persistent the fetch has been over the Boston area, I’d say it should produce just fine. I’ve always been a sucker for a good easterly firehose, Mar 2013 remains my all time favorite storm

Best rates of the storm thus far right now

Cars beginning to disappear under drifts

Wind whipping up the snow and blowing it everywhere. Full on Blizzard in the South End

When does Logan release its totals?

Flake size increasing markedly in Boston as bands approach from both east and west

Rare fetch of precip for sure. Last time I can rememeber such a continental firehose was in early Feb 2022. Ice across CNE and an epic NNE burial thanks to three distinct overrunning waves along a sharp temperature gradient. Precip was stretching back to Texas. Sure synoptics are much more dynamic today, but I thought I would never see an overrunning event of that size for at least a decade. Totally agree with just how incredible the size is of this storm.

This is cope, many such cases of NAM excelling in these set ups. It’s probably a bit overzealous but this is a legit signal

Awesome, now let us know when the exploding tree temperature threshold is!

I’d lean Ipswich jackpot but it’s up to the direction of the fetch. You know you’re sitting pretty with historic ocean enhancement patterns

Feel like a dynamic hyperbomb is susceptible to ticks, attenuation, or extreme phasing. This event on the other hand is dynamics at its most simple… we snow and we snow hard. Does sleet get in, maybe? But how much QPF does it sacrifice? a couple tenths max when the DGZ sucks anyways due to dry air perhaps these model runs mean nothing to me. We’re pretty locked in

Highest upside SWFE (due to coastal hybrid characteristics) since 2/2/15?

Kinda meh in Boston

Had the privilege to hop around New England this past weekend to sample the Mid-January snowpack in various locations of NNE and CNE. We began with a Saturday morning in Pinkham Notch. Dreams of a high alpine romp along the eastern ravines of Mt. Washington were quashed early Friday morning as MWAC issued a Considerable avalanche risk for the zone, citing highly reactive slabs present across all easterly aspects. This elevated rating persisted into Saturday, and with new snow loading on the slabs it was clear the snowpack would be touchy. Nevertheless we decided to poke around the zone, test the snowpack in safe locations, and make a judgement call from there. Honestly I knew it was unlikely we would successfully push into the alpine, but saw value in dusting off avalanche safety protocols in preparation for future missions. Arriving at the base of Hillman's Highway we were greeted by hollow "whoomphing" beneath our skins, likely emitting from buried crust collapsing onto further buried layers. This was a sign that not only could a slide occur up high, but it could step down and release older weak layers deeper in the snowpack, generating a much larger avalanche. My party dug a pit, found reactivity, and turned around - opting for a scratchy but safe run down the Sherb. Good thing we turned around when we did. Just to the north Tuckerman Ravine came alive at around the same time, ripping a large natural slide under Chute which stepped across multiple weak layers... exactly what we were worried about. Our backup plan was to investigate the Gulf of Slides, hoping that the SE aspect was shielded from slab formation. Unfortunately Main Gully looked spooky and unskied despite several groups in the area. We backed off once again, this time enjoying a much softer ski on the dynamic GoS trail as a consolation prize. Later in the day the Gulf of Slides underwent a small natural Avy cycle, once again reaffirming our decision making. With the high alpine of the Presidentials a no-go, next up was an even more dangerous endeavor: Killington on MLK weekend Sunday. Ropes dropped for the season on the top pitch of Devil's Fiddle, offering boot top powder and pillowy drops through saplings - a welcome reprieve from the human slalom taking place elsewhere at The Beast. Solitude could be found on Monday. A favorite stash of mine, bathed in views of one of NH's most underrated monadnocks, brought some low angle powder turns (and steeper loud powder) just off the Interstate. A moment of bliss before I too had to join the holiday traffic conga line south back into the flatlands.