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Boston Bulldog

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Boston Bulldog

  1. On second thought, pass me the bug burger before I start tilling my lord's fields. Anyways, it's definitely right to be skeptical of this upcoming PNA driven period being productive for the vast majority of the forum given climatology and a blowtorched Quebec.
  2. Well if it's going to act like April, might as well ski like it's April! Fantastic day up in Tuckerman Ravine. Trekked up to Hojos in stubborn mist and fog. As we approached the ravine floor, the sun was showing signs of emerging but in general the bowl was still a cauldron of fog. As we began booting up Left Gully, skies began to brighten a bit up high... Upon reaching the top of the Ravine, clouds were thinning with the summit beginning to emerge to skiers left. Suddenly the bowl rapidly cleared and we had clean sightlines for the descent. By the time we finished the line, it was a spectacular bluebird day out on the Rockpile It's low tide up there for sure, not many skiable lines outside of the gullies right now. The sherburne is open all the way to the parking lot, but I don't expect it will be for much longer. Go get it while you can!
  3. GFS and EURO backing off from 18z yesterday has been a bit of a bummer, hoping the mesos are onto something! The dense nature of any snow that falls should bind well with the base and provide some relief.
  4. Welp they delayed the opening of Black, surprise surprise. Hopefully they have it up and running before the weekend.
  5. BIG news out of Southern Vermont: "Black Line Quad passed its load test on Tuesday. And yesterday it passed State Inspection. A few punch list items to take care of today and getting it some run time before it launches Monday! The Quad will open to passholders first on Monday morning! So long and farewell to lift lines at Magic!" (From Magic's Snow Report today) After 4 years of construction woes, mishaps, and some bad luck, Magic Mountain is finally opening their Black Quad! This is a game changer for several reasons. Red is aging quickly and it every year seems like a high wire act to get it approved by the state for the season. Having Black online will take significant pressure off of that workhorse lift and help extend its life. Lines at Red have gotten crazy in recent years due to the mountain hopping on the Indy Pass, so tripling capacity to the summit will go a very long way to increasing efficiency. Some may worry about additional congestion on the trails, but this should be negligible as the mountain is broad enough to disperse skiers. Until they finished Black, Magic seemed to be on tenuous footing due to aging infrastructure and limited finances (exacerbated by this albatross of a lift project). Happy that they seem to have finally figured it out.
  6. Wet bulb temps never dropped below 33F on Tuesday down here in Manhattan so we never accumulated very well… as such tomorrow is trending towards being our biggest of the season
  7. Coming down at a decent clip here in the UES, streets slushy, avenues wet. I am a bit concerned about Manhattan getting stuck in between the deformation band over NNJ and the WCB goods pushing into Long Island. Mesoscale analysis does have me optimistic that subsidence shouldn't be too much of a problem however, as it really isn't consolidated over a pivoting band to our northwest. Right on cue some bands are infilling just over the Hudson in Jersey, so at this hour there doesn't appear to be a deformation mega band to the west that will have the city dealing with bright clouds and exhaust. There will be consolidation at some point with these bands as the fronto gets cranking, still question of where this will happen who will get the pivot point.
  8. Sampled the goods across multiple spots in Central and Northern VT over recent days. There is a bit of a gradient in snow conditions between the haves and have nots to this point in terms of both rain avoidance and upslope production. Burke had soft snow with a few inches of fluff on top of a hard packed (but not very crusty) surface. Seems as though they were just far enough north and east to mitigate rain crust from the cutters earlier in the month. Despite this, the base wasn't particularly deep as they failed to cash in on the upslope bonanza of this past week. Smuggs was fantastic. Deep base, minimal crust, and tons of fluff. The northern spine is in amazing shape, can only imagine how great Jay is skiing right now. Wrapped up the north country swing with a chilly tour up two different zones at Brandon Gap. Given the more southern location, a more prominent rain crust was lying anywhere from 3 to 10 (in drifts) inches below the fluff. Certainly more soft stuff on top than at Burke due to upslope, but in general conditions at Brandon were more variable than elsewhere. Still lots of fun turns to be had, though the lighter touring skis did struggle a bit with the crud Overall, great conditions for mid-January. A few shots from Brandon today:
  9. You nailed it earlier this week regarding the upslope look. Looks like the spine from Stowe to Jay got blitzed last night
  10. Initial offerings from BTV for this weekend are a bit more paltry than the last storm. There does appear to be a significantly better upslope setup than what we are experiencing right now, so accumulation should continue in favored zones beyond this point on Sunday.
  11. Ha, this is essentially a topographic map. You can clearly make out the individual ranges within the High Peaks region of the ADK, the spine of the Greens is lit up, and even Mount Ascutney is clearly visible just W of the CT river. Mount Sunapee, Mount Cardigan and Kearsarge are also very obvious as well. Even some key passes and valleys in N-VT are clearly visible.
  12. Definite over-performer in VT. Very similar look to the 90th percentile map from BTV last night
  13. Agreed regarding the 19th. If the ridge indeed builds to the modeled amplitude over the West, it’s reasonable to conclude that the downstream response has lots of room to dig deeper and orient into a more favorable position for redevelopment. Based on 12z OP runs, we would need the ridge axis to split the difference between GFS and Euro positioning to open the door to something bigger.
  14. https://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/loop/index.php?map=WINTER Some big gusts showing up on the NYS Mesonet just west of the Tug Hill. Pretty big numbers being put up over the Finger Lakes region and Southern Tier as well.
  15. Sugarbush and MRG are about to get blasted. Would have to think VT-17 across the App Gap is a ridiculously difficult drive right now
  16. 18z GFS coming in 2mb weaker at 72h over Illinois. No change in surface high intensity over QC
  17. Now look at how the different handling of vorticity changes the trough orientation 12 hours later. No wonder 0z pops to the coast.
  18. Big differences at 500mb with shear vorticity over the plains
  19. 500mb trough takes longer to go negative for the 0z run than in 18z. Lobe of shear vorticity over the plains seems to be trailing more at 0z rather than getting wrapped up as much.
  20. 7mb weaker through the lakes at 150hr and as such a much more substantial coastal reflection forms, with a transfer to GOM by 162hr
  21. There is a reason why there is so much concern about convection ruining phasing dynamics in some potential high end bombs off the coast. Threading the needle isn't easy. This setup seems "messy" enough that boring background dynamics should win the day and get this thing up the coast without convective issues.
  22. Considering the first wave is fizzling out and the secondary wave is what provides the primary forcing, I wouldn't be too concerned about that occurring. Not like there is a deep cyclonic center that is getting shunted east by the convection, the synoptic sweet spot downstream of the second wave will win out at the surface in this look even if the convection does some wonky things early in the evolution.
  23. Closed surface contours making landfall on the Florida Big Bend. Obviously lowest pressures jump north in the next frame, but the GFS seems to be really struggling with the convection down south.
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