Boston Bulldog

Presently the Green Mountain spine, Franconia Notch, and the Presidentials are covered. I do plan to expand to include the ADK high peaks region however

I've been developing some new visualizations for froude number and other upslope components, this first NW flow event will be a good test of how close I am to having a usable tool. Excited to test against validation this weekend. Generally the products have performed well when tested against historical events, but it's difficult to have full confidence when running against only model reanalysis data. I will post the results for this weekend's event. I plan to host a website with these publically available by ski season

Whole northern eyewall is blowing up with convection now

Remains Cat 2 at the 8am intermediate advisory. A bit surprising to be honest. Pressure down to 958mb

I don’t think that’s a legit eye, IR suggests that the inner core convection still isn’t organized enough yet to pop one. Pause in strengthening for now, let’s see if Isaias can get going again soon.

Many examples. Milton most recently

Hah, impressive guillotine. The core will not be that well put together on approach, it also won’t be totally gone by landfall

Isaias is already a bit lopsided to the east, but the center is secluded enough from both shear and dry air to continue to intensify. Maybe a small eye pops briefly, honestly the analog may be Sandy before Cuba landfall (at least in regards to a potent late season core surrounded by synoptic fuel). Isaias will be getting ripped apart upon landfall, but it will gain significant strength before doing that. Also the jet streak equatorward entrance region is going to fuel baroclinicty over the SE US. Not to be slept on, the tornado threat on the right side is going to be significant. Isaias will have a ton of energy to be conserved as it gets absorbed by the trough as landfall occurs, this will be an impactful event

Began as a depression in the E-pac that dissipated, then made a sudden comeback and instantly began threatening the Big Island almost a week later

Remains a TD at 11pm, but the discussion makes it sound like they may upgrade to TS shortly once this ASCAT pass comes in

Looking pretty dang organized for a TD on the latest microwave pass

If Isaias ends up becoming a formidable cane, this would be a significant coup by DeepMind

Nolo is up to a cat 4 now, what a beast. Category 5 is definitely attainable and the structure appears like it would be restant to any internal changes like an EWRC. Bombs away

Nolo is about to go boom

Nolo appears primed to reach major hurricane status at the 5pm ET update. Large eye has cleared out with a thick layer of robust convection insulating the core. The ceiling on this system just increased

Odalys is now a Cat 4!

Odalys is knocking on the door of being a major, and with all the other activity there isn’t a peep about it. Maybe the quietest RI in board history?

Simultaneous major hurricanes named Nolo and Polo… surely the public won’t get confused lol

Might be a touch of northerly shear impacting Fay now as well. Distinct southerly shunting of the convection can be seen on IR

I still have a hunch that may be dry air. Look at how the cool spot pinched off from the linear break in the convection present earlier. Now if convection walls off the SE side and that feature remains then I may be mistaken

Some dry air is around the core at present, but with a lack of shear this should be dispelled quickly by new convective bursts. Another tower is going up and rotating around the northerly part of the center, the progression of this convective tower should determine if Fay makes HU status at 11.

I will note this is still a nascent feature. It will be intermittent through this evening

Looks great under the hood and from space. Fay will be a hurricane, if not by 5pm then certainly by 11pm

Bursting convection over the center, I think we have Fay at 5pm. Regardless of final intensity, these systems in the subtropics can be quite well organized and aesthetic looking if they get their act together

Kauai, probably not. Ni'ihau may catch the eyewall though