Boston Bulldog

The pre-advisory ASCAT pass missing is a bit of a disappointment. Given the structure, a 60 mph designation seems reasonable. This is just personal conjecture so take it with a grain of salt, but its possible that the Dvorak technique may not do as well in resolving TC structures and intensity in marginal regions where convection is harder to come by.

Don's structure is likely peaking right now. These mid-latitude TCs always seem to be able to pull little surprises if they can detach from westerly flow and meander over marginal waters

Two Hurricanes, two eyes in the EPAC 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 301500 TCDEP2 Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Recent GOES 1-minute visible and infrared satellite imagery show that an eye is forming. A special classification from TAFB yielded an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, and raw UW-CIMSS ADT values are also up to 4.0. Therefore, Beatriz has been upgraded to a hurricane with maximum winds estimated to be 65 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane plane is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, hopefully providing a refinement in the estimated intensity. Beatriz's initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next 48 hours as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the southern United States and northern Mexico. However, as is often the case with cyclones paralleling the west coast of Mexico, there is significant uncertainty as to whether Beatriz's center will continue to skirt the coast or move inland at some point. The NHC track forecast continues to show a scenario where Beatriz grazes the coast during the next 24-36 hours, but models such as the ECMWF and UKMET do bring the system inland and show dissipation. If Beatriz survives the next 48 hours, it would then likely slow down and turn toward the west-northwest as a mid-level ridge builds over the southwestern U.S. If Beatriz's center remains offshore, environmental conditions should otherwise be conducive for additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane until after it passes Cabo Corrientes. On the other hand, if the center reaches land, the mountainous terrain of Mexico would likely cause rapid weakening. Assuming survival during the next 36 hours, increasing shear out of the east-northeast, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a drier, more subsident environment would likely lead to gradual weakening on days 2 and 3. Based on the latest global model guidance, Beatriz is likely to have degenerated into a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Beatriz is forecast to continue strengthening and remain a hurricane through Saturday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in those areas later today and on Saturday. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Nayarit. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.3N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 18.2N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 20.4N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 21.3N 107.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 21.7N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 22.0N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 22.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Up to 70%/70% at 2pm EDT

Wardrobe was phenomenal today, took 2 runs down it. One of my favorite tree zones in the East, especially the final steep pitch. I love how the steep/tight pines in that area dump out into a shallow glade of hardwoods. Really allows you to pick up some speed and take aggressive lines without worrying about losing control because it opens up just in time.

30" reported at Magic, and it certainly skied like it! Note the pole for depth (with some slantsticking). The mountain sold out so most runs got quickly tracked up, but the trees were incredibly deep and untouched all morning. Unfortunately, around noon high winds took down a tree which cut the power source to the mountain so they had to shut down. They are giving out a free day voucher to everyone who bought a ticket, shout out Magic for the great customer service and working so quickly to amend an unfortunate situation!

Dumping S++ in Albany. The band to our west is finally pivoting in!

How is the density?

Downsloping masterclass since 8am in Albany. Heavy echos overhead completely drying up. Only a few stray flakes making it down. Need this easterly flow to switch

Inverted trough bringing the goods right now, but the main show for E-Mass tomorrow is taking shape offshore.

Fully flipped snow in Downtown Albany now. A nice band has been sitting over this area for a while and helped it flip over a bit ahead of schedule in the Capital Region. No accumulation yet. 32*f wet-bulb contour suggests that accumulating snows are not far away: https://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/loop/index.php?map=WINTER

Looks like some solid upslope for the Northern Greens with 4" at the Stowe stake, and Jay reporting 3-4" by noon. They haven't updated since, does anyone know what they finished with today?

Looks like Bread and Butter with a side of wind is on the menu for the northern greens later this week

Calm before the storm (and a little Alpenglow) at MRG

Nice to see the GFS join the party and get some more robust precip totals into northern VT. Was definitely starting to QPF queen a bit last night over the southern ticks at the time, and their potential impact on my skiing interests in the Mad River Valley

Impressive echos out there, but that's a pretty nasty 800mb dry layer to saturate. Was wondering how much was making it to the ground in central mass

Came in like a wall in Albany, snowing furiously right now in downtown. First time all year it seems like a snowstorm has come in with real authority

Tale of two mountains today at Whiteface. For a period this morning, the east aspects near the Summit quad were in the sun, but the south facing ridge of Little Whiteface was an impenetrable cauldron of fog. Next run, a ride up the Little Whiteface Double (which runs along the backside of the ridge in the above picture and terminates next to the gondola), was a whole different world. While fascinating to see from a meteorological perspective, perhaps not the most fun visibility conditions. A nice demonstration of the intricacies of orographic weather, though what wasn't as nice was when the flow switched post-frontal and socked in the entire mountain. Conditions today were similar to what bwt was reporting at Killington. Hard pack with loose granular that was surprisingly edgeable outside of wind affected areas. Mid mountain must have gotten a glaze of freezing rain, a few gondola cabins were completely glazed over while others were clear. Exposed areas at the top of the mountain were completely scoured, with Skyward totally closed due to the risk of unstoppable slide in the event of a fall. On the other hand, sheltered bump runs like Upper Empire were very solid, with some wind transported powder in the nearby Cloudsplitter Glades. Variability is definitely Whiteface's hallmark, but I do enjoy how formidable and unpredictable the mountain (and its weather) feels. Its a burly mountain and definitely keeps you honest.

11" nearby at the base of Magic! A rare Tuesday opening tomorrow

This deform area over Albany has been great. Consistent moderate to heavy snow all morning Totals are a bit lower in the valley due to some mixing that occurred overnight, but this morning's performance has certainly made up for that

Control run would be c00. I don't think it shows up here

Power is back at Magic, game on!

Have a ticket for Magic tomorrow, nervously awaiting the news regrading power. Seems like they’ll have nearly the entire mountain open if they can get power. If not, Whiteface it is

Gonna be difficult to verify the WSW here, but steady moderate snow now and accumulating at a decent clip. Once the sun went down the switch flipped

Looks like we have finally changed over to 100% snow in ALB