aggiegeog

Agreed that without meso model support it is ok to delay a bit in watches, unless agreement comes before they may wait until tomorrow. The GFS has been amazingly consistent, though if meso models do not come into agreement by 12Z tomorrow the forecast is gonna be very difficult. If the high was over the Dakota's it would be much more of a slam dunk but it's a bit far east from ideal position so that especially East Texas has a couple mountain ranges in between. I still think areas west of a Waco to Tyler to Paris line are very likely to have significant icing. Longview to Texarkana are much more borderline.

NAM at this range is fantasy land. I'll start paying attention to the NAM and other meso models on Tuesday. I do not think we will gain much insight tomorrow with the storm offshore.

If the low drives into Mexico then all bets are off. We should get much better idea tomorrow and especially tomorrow night once the system enters the balloon network.

Euro has proven itself to be very unreliable and inconsistent with these type events over the past few years. ICON and GFS to a lesser degree are king in this situation. The combo of two very strong forces, 1050mb Arctic high and strong negative tilt short wave, make it very difficult for models to resolve. My opinion is to go on past experience which is the shortwave will be more SW than modeled and the surface cold will bleed south faster than modeled except in far eastern Texas where the Ouachita Mountains will block it.

There likely will be a 50 to 100 mile wide swath of major freezing rain impacts. My initial guess for it is centered around a Del Rio to Paris line. North of I-20 and west of I-35 could see heavy snow that begins as sleet closer to I-35. Heavy rain ending as freezing rain south of that line. Maybe an area of light snow later in day Thursday along and north of I-20.

That's a pretty good rule, obviously not going to work every time but a good general rule.

ICON just like last year along with GFS seem to be leading the way on this event. Euro has major issues with these extreme events, Canadian is it's typical inconsistent self.

It is crazy how just flipping the page to Feb and all of a sudden moisture is no problem. Same as most every winter season. Snow before February has become very rare with last January being an exception, but that mainly missed the cities of Texas.

Thankfully NE Texas had a good rain event recently, and I think that is where this event will focus also. The whole region will be very cold but heavy precip will likely be confined to eastern parts of the state. There will be more waves following the mid week system though and those will pull moisture further SW the following week. Several consecutive days below freezing for the northern parts of the state with sub zero possible near the Red River in areas that get snow. This will put great stress on agriculture and infrastructure.

Next week has lots of potential for Arctic cold and winter precip across the Southern Plains.

Late week is getting very interesting for inland Gulf Coast region. Significant icing is possible on elevated surfaces.

Some chance of winter weather Thursday and a much better chance for a wideapread event Saturday.

Looks like some snow showers Saturday afternoon and evening for areas east of I-35 and north of I-20 as the upper low passes overhead. Very limited moisture so amounts will be in the dusting to 2 inch range.

Strong and growing signal for Arctic air during the last 1/3 of Jan.

WWA for East Texas. Minor sleet accumulation around Nacogdoches with temps around freezing. Light snow around Kilgore with temps in mid 20s. Band of flurries moving in here, NW Smith County, with temps in the low 20s. The wave is creating the best lift where temps are borderline so with recent warmth I doubt there are any significant roadway issues. Around here with low 20s any precip should stick regardless of prior temps.

I expect the Arctic front to arrive in North Texas by midday Saturday. It will bring with it strong storms and crashing temperatures. Sunday morning will be in the 20s with snow showers possible. Highs Sunday will likely be in the mid 30s at best for North Texas.

Big changes coming this weekend. A non zero chance for snow north of I-20.

Finally the big shift is near. Looks like the initial push of cold will come this weekend.

Loma Linda (southern Taos County, NM south of Sipapu Ski at 9,000ft) got over 13". It's been a good March there with over 2 feet so far.

Some good spring snow still up here in the northern NM mountains south of Taos. 44f and flurries right now. Days have been in the 50s with lows around 20 lately. A good snow is on tap for the weekend, but sadly we will have to head home before then as I start a new job Monday.

Up to close to 2" snow in past 1.5 hours, plus 0.5" sleet this morning, plus 8.5" snow Sunday night. That makes 11" total with another inch or so to come from this current band.

Been snowing moderately for at least 30 minutes. I am hoping it stays as snow.

Barely anything since early morning in Hideaway. Back edge has ease ever so slowly east. The Central Texas batch may get us. Not sure on precip type with that but I assume sleet.

I am like you looking at this for the first time since Sunday. I have people asking what to expect and I have no idea as of now. Sure hoping the southern solution is correct to put me in the snow zone solidly.

12km NAM is great for East Texas.