aggiegeog

The north central NM mountains (Santa Fe to Taos) will see the first good snow this week. I'd go with 6 to 12" above 10k. 2 to 6" above 8k. A dusting maybe down to valley floor in Taos area. Peaks further south across NM will also see some snow though amounts will likely be under 4".

Today's rain bomb along I-20 from DFW through East Texas has been incredible with some locations nearly doubling YTD rainfall in less than 24hr. The Mesquite area is up to around 15", DFW up to over 9" and most of area in the 4-8" range. Perfect storm of systems converging over the area. The heaviest rains are slowing edging ESE. I wont be surprised if someone tops 20". What a way to go from major drought to flooding in a few hours.

Gonna be a lot of sites in Northwest Texas with highs over 115F today. The swath from San Angelo north to Wichita Falls is the epicenter.

The pictures are incredible and hard to believe. Seeing the smoke columns make 13,000 ft peaks looks tiny is hard to wrap around. And the fact that primary containment lines are being set up 20 miles from the current head of the fire is also. Those mountains are rough and steep with very dense but weak forest covering them. Thankfully not many homes in that area. This fire could easily burn into July or August or at least until it gets to the Taos valley. Imagining the area from Las Vegas to Toas burnt is tough as that is where I have spent my whole life visiting a few times a year.

We are in East Texas so too far to do anything but watch. Only one family decided to stay in our neighborhood up there. The fire is now within one creek drainage from our neighborhood. Sadly the neighborhood is fairly wooded so its going to make structure protection difficult. All structures are wood though many have metal roofs so that should help. With humidity levels and wind direction the fire will likely be in our drainage as early as today and good chance by Friday. Of greater concern of course is in the valleys where people live and work and not so much for our vacation homes. The fire will soon be in the towns of Chacon and Guadalapita. It will be pushing towards Angel Fire after that. Praying for the safety of residents and fire personnel, this has been a very hard month for them and there is no end in sight.

The Hermit Peak Fire in NM is just 5 miles south of my family's place and winds turn southerly today. The fire has burned over 200,000 acres so far and has been burning for a month already. There are still two months until the monsoon hopefully kicks in. Hopefully winds calm down enough for firefighters to slow the spread and get the helicopters and planes in the air consistently before then. https://nifc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=bfb95b09412840c0afd99626ea2bee4f

Isolated freeze across East Texas with widespread mid to upper 30s this morning.

NWS confirmed 100mph microburst Monday night in Whitehouse. Lots of damage there. Outside of that winds were in the 50s across a wide swath of East Texas and North Louisiana.

Lots of power outages and some tree and roof damage from last nights line south of Tyler.

It has been a very rough evening across East Texas with several significant tornadoes and a few more more minor ones. Thankfully they skipped all around me but I did have 3 potential tornadoes within 25 miles around 9 pm. Sounds like Crockett and Gilmer areas got hit hardest. One went right through Tyler but doesn't seem like it was on the ground or at least not in a significant way.

Band of light snow dropping down along Red River. Areas along and north of I-30 may get a dusting. Watching to see if this develops anymore or if it can drop south much more.

Heaviest snow will be McKinney to Texarkana and points north. Denton and areas west of you will likely see more sleet and miss the heavy snow later today.

NWS continues expanding WWAs south to the I-20 corridor. Amounts should be around half an inch near I-20 with an inch plus possible near the Red River. Before the snow, light rain and sleet will fall. The snow will likely come in a quick burst that could quickly cover roads and especially bridges. Other than precip expect cold wind chills all day today. A hard freeze is possible tonight where snow accumulates.

If I wasn't so busy at work I'd happily trade my dusting I'll get tomorrow in Texas for a couple feet at my family's place south of Taos.

Been dumping good in Northern NM this month and another 1 to 2 feet today will make this a very good late winter.

It still looks like some sleet ending as snow tomorrow north of I-20. Accumulations generally under an inch except 2 to an isolated 3 inches near Red River.

Looks like more sleet and snow for North Texas this morning and showers elsewhere. Friday may bring snow to the northern half of Texas. Saturday morning looks like it may being a widespread hard freeze.

Raining pretty heavy with temps in 33 to 36 range around Tyler.

FTW went with WWA SHV decided on just a special statement. Similar impacts expected though across North Texas and Northeast Texas being low 30s and scattered light rain. Very light ice accretion is possible on elevated surfaces. Can't rule out black ice on bridges.

Another small bullet left to dodge tonight/tomorrow. Nothing major but could see some freezing rain or sleet across Central, North and Northeast Texas if temps come in a touch colder.

Freezing drizzle is causing major issues in the Tyler area. I-20 was shut down for a short time until TxDOT could bring in sand.

I think DFW particularly western areas may be less than 0.1" with over 0.25" east of Terrell.

FTW kicks off what will likely be a major expansion of warnings that will eventually stretch from the Hill Country to NE TX. Likely to include Austin, Waco, maybe Tyler and up to Paris and maybe down to San Antonio. Amounts trending down for N TX and up for Central and eastern Texas.

SHV increased their expected icing for their western zones significantly. I imagine FTW will consider increasing their eastern zones to match. This would bring warnings potentially to the entire NE portion of FTW.

Yep not much lift and precip begins in low level clouds that are 50 degrees. There won't be much time for freezing into sleet but it's possible that temps in low 20s could freeze it into sleet before reaching ground in North Texas.