aggiegeog

Just above freezing here with a thunderstorm ongoing. Hi Res models showing spotty 1" QPF in sub freezing air through lunchtime tomorrow from the Hill Country to NE TX. Temps in these areas look to be 29-32 so accretion rates will not be super efficient. Still I could see areas of >.25" of ice develop, but not sure they will be widespread enough to justify any ISWs. Most will see <0.1" of ice. Anyone NW of a Austin to Texarkana line needs to be cautious driving tonight and tomorrow morning.

SHV NWS added their NW and N tiers of counties to the WWA party for tonight and tomorrow morning. The freezing fog up in northern DFW makes the trees look awesome.

I don't consider it hype when it is less than 150 hours out with great consensus among among all major models and their ensembles. Tonight will depend on if the heaviest precip falls in areas with 31 or 28 degrees temps. If >.5 QPF falls in DFW then accumulations of ice of .25 are likely. If this heavy precip is more towards Terrell and Canton then it will have a harder time accreting efficiently.

Monday is perfection for a Texas snow storm. Western Gulf surface low, 1040s Plains surface high, TPV over Midwest, negative tilting shortwave and a Siberian air mass at the surface.

I consider major being 0.25". That's enough to make travel impossible and to cause power issues.

We may well have THE winter storm in Texas history upon us with widespread heavy snow and most of the state below zero the following morning. This is preceded by a major icing event in North Texas tonight and a light event Saturday. Then followed by more frozen precip later next week. I hope people statewide are preparing for what could be a devestating event which could cause major disruptions to infastructure. Travel may be impossible for some in North Texas from tonight through late next week. I sure hope there are not widespread power outages tonight as that would greatly exacerbate an already dangerous situation.

Models unanimous in showing a massive snowstorm Monday fueled by strong, moist air from 900 to 300mb. This tied with severe Arctic air at the surface will lead to 12 to 24 hours of moderate to heavy snow north of I-10 with icing along and south of I-10.

Good luck with that trip, its gonna be a tricky trip if it even possible.

And now 0Z GFS is showing me at -6 Tue morning with WC of -18. The ICON and GFS have been the most consistent models on this event so I have to give them credence but sheesh.

Now the ICON is showing the big snows followed by some of the coldest temps in Texas history. All of this on top of the icing issues over the next few days.

More support for heavy snow via GFS Para which drops over a foot. A 3 to 6 inch even is supported by nearly every model and most ensemble members. This will be one of the classics with heavy powdery snow on Monday. Some will get buried and the rest will get plenty.

I need to go back and look at those but key to this event is above 900mb there is strong SW flow. Yes the low levels are going to be dry but that dryness is very shallow and can be overcome by heavy precip rates from above. If that occurs temps will fall to the low teens or even single digits. Some spots could see over 6 inches. It takes very little moisture to get rapidly accumulating snow at these temps. Basically the entire column is the dendritic growth zone and most of the column will be saturated.

I am going to a funeral in McKinney tomorrow. I think roads will be ok, but watching things closely.

Things are coming together nicely on most all models for a significant snow event early next week for most north of I-10. Closer to I-20 and north this looks to be a high ratio event (>15:1) with lower ratios (<10:1) along I-10. Before this event there will be freezing drizzle for DFW area this week, and a light mixed precip event on Saturday for the northern half of the state. Mid-week next week could feature another mixed precip event but that is over a week out so I will leave that one alone for now.

Icing occuring in DFW this morning with travel issues along the Red River. Question for the day is will there be any real warming during the day today in N TX. Down to 39 here in Lindale already. I think there will be limited warming but that may be wishful thinking for those back towards DFW and points north.

The wind chill forecasts are getting downright dangerous. -10s to -20s is frostbite territory.

I think we have a good chance at sub zero Tue morning after the snow on Monday.

After a bit of model carziness over the weekend things are becoming clearer. I am going with a blend of the ICON and GFS for my forecast as they have been largely consistent. Looks like the cold builds from 40s for highs mid week to 20s for highs over the weekend with lows in the single digits north of I-20 with sub zero temps in NW TX. The ripples will be nearly impossible to pin down, but some light frozen mixed precip seems likely late this week with snow being more likely this weekend and into next week. Looks a lot like early Feb 2011 but maybe colder. ICON threatens the all time state low temp record of -23.

Well looks like it will be both for the next 14 days. It will vary between very cold and dry to cold with moisture. Lots of chances for light frozen precip throughout Feb. The cold will be story though with some sub zero temps likely and widespread sub 15. Highs below freezing and maybe below 20 are possible.

Next week looks very cold with major ice storm potential.

In less than a week my family's place in southern Taos County, NM has had two >12" snow events with lighter snow in between. More snow to come this week with another possible big snow late this week.

Hints of some Red River flurries showing along the Red River Wed morning. Not a high chance but a chance.

The past week has been very El Nino feeling with mild temps and constant light rain or drizzle basically 24/7. The past 3 days have been constantly foggy with today being the worst with visibilities under 1/4 mile for much of the day.

It has been foggy, wet and mild here for the past few days. Especially foggy today with visibilities below 1 mile all day.

I compared the final tally vs my original forecast I put out last Thursday. Both bad though like most everyone I had the main band too far north by about 50 miles. Thankfully I never wavered much between these two maps which I am pleased with. The models went kinda crazy in the 72-48 hour range which made things hard to follow so I stuck with persistence until things became more clear on Saturday.