aggiegeog

More support for heavy snow via GFS Para which drops over a foot. A 3 to 6 inch even is supported by nearly every model and most ensemble members. This will be one of the classics with heavy powdery snow on Monday. Some will get buried and the rest will get plenty.

I need to go back and look at those but key to this event is above 900mb there is strong SW flow. Yes the low levels are going to be dry but that dryness is very shallow and can be overcome by heavy precip rates from above. If that occurs temps will fall to the low teens or even single digits. Some spots could see over 6 inches. It takes very little moisture to get rapidly accumulating snow at these temps. Basically the entire column is the dendritic growth zone and most of the column will be saturated.

I am going to a funeral in McKinney tomorrow. I think roads will be ok, but watching things closely.

Things are coming together nicely on most all models for a significant snow event early next week for most north of I-10. Closer to I-20 and north this looks to be a high ratio event (>15:1) with lower ratios (<10:1) along I-10. Before this event there will be freezing drizzle for DFW area this week, and a light mixed precip event on Saturday for the northern half of the state. Mid-week next week could feature another mixed precip event but that is over a week out so I will leave that one alone for now.

Icing occuring in DFW this morning with travel issues along the Red River. Question for the day is will there be any real warming during the day today in N TX. Down to 39 here in Lindale already. I think there will be limited warming but that may be wishful thinking for those back towards DFW and points north.

The wind chill forecasts are getting downright dangerous. -10s to -20s is frostbite territory.

I think we have a good chance at sub zero Tue morning after the snow on Monday.

After a bit of model carziness over the weekend things are becoming clearer. I am going with a blend of the ICON and GFS for my forecast as they have been largely consistent. Looks like the cold builds from 40s for highs mid week to 20s for highs over the weekend with lows in the single digits north of I-20 with sub zero temps in NW TX. The ripples will be nearly impossible to pin down, but some light frozen mixed precip seems likely late this week with snow being more likely this weekend and into next week. Looks a lot like early Feb 2011 but maybe colder. ICON threatens the all time state low temp record of -23.

Well looks like it will be both for the next 14 days. It will vary between very cold and dry to cold with moisture. Lots of chances for light frozen precip throughout Feb. The cold will be story though with some sub zero temps likely and widespread sub 15. Highs below freezing and maybe below 20 are possible.

Next week looks very cold with major ice storm potential.

In less than a week my family's place in southern Taos County, NM has had two >12" snow events with lighter snow in between. More snow to come this week with another possible big snow late this week.

Hints of some Red River flurries showing along the Red River Wed morning. Not a high chance but a chance.

The past week has been very El Nino feeling with mild temps and constant light rain or drizzle basically 24/7. The past 3 days have been constantly foggy with today being the worst with visibilities under 1/4 mile for much of the day.

It has been foggy, wet and mild here for the past few days. Especially foggy today with visibilities below 1 mile all day.

I compared the final tally vs my original forecast I put out last Thursday. Both bad though like most everyone I had the main band too far north by about 50 miles. Thankfully I never wavered much between these two maps which I am pleased with. The models went kinda crazy in the 72-48 hour range which made things hard to follow so I stuck with persistence until things became more clear on Saturday.

Looks like there ended up with a nearly continuous band of 6"+ snow amounts from SE NM down to College Station and up through N LA. Isolated 10"+ in spots. DFW had a dusting to 1" though just south of DFW had 6". I had 2" but only had to go 10 miles south to see 4"+. There was a heavy strip of ~8" from Madisonville up to Jacksonville. Basically anyone north of I-10 at least saw snow flakes, even SA saw a dusting. Downtown Houston barely missed though they likely had some sleet mixed in. I am pretty happy with my forecast map though I under-forecasted the intensity of the main band also missed the B/CS area stuff that busted my forecast high in central East Texas. I mainly got the locations correct.

Ended up with close to 2". Hearing that roads are good this morning around here thankfully. Another ULL crosses the state tomorrow night though it will be moisture starved. Maybe some light rain for central Texas tomorrow evening and maybe some sprinkles or flurries tomorrow night for E and SE Texas. The next significant storm comes this weekend with rain or snow for much of the state.

It has been dumping for the past half hour or so. I'd say we have half an inch with several hours left of heavier snow and likely a few more hours of light snow after that. We look to get upwards of 4" at this rate.

A dusting so far north of Tyler. I think we will see 2-3" maybe more if the stuff down by Waco makes it up here as the sun goes down.

Reports west of I-35 def are encouraging but I'm keeping my expectations at 2 or 3 inches between 6pm and midnight.

NWS Shreveport upgraded the area along and south of I-20 to a WSW with a WWA for the I-30 corridor. They are advertising 2-4" in the warning area. Their forecast closely matches mine for East Texas. I think areas around Lufkin could get more but totals down their may be cut by sleet. Up along I-20 looks like we will have to deal with some rain during the day today given our distance from the upper level low. Tyler should still get a solid 3" of snow, but not the crazy 6"+ amounts that we could have had if it was all snow during the day today.

There is another storm lined up for next weekend. This blocking over Canada looks to stay in place and even grow stronger over the weeks ahead. We will have plenty more shots at snow over the coming months. Not going to be the warm dry winter many predicted. ENSO is only a part of the picture.

By tomorrow the warnings will stretch from eastern NM to western MS. I def think Tarrant will warrant a warning but depends some on where bands set up as the ULL will miss DFW to the south.

All signs point to a 2010 event still though this event is much colder at upper levels and colder even at the surface. Ratios could well be closer to the 10:1 or even better under the ULL. There will likely be some 12 inch and higher totals.

Low of 24 here. These colder than expected temps this morning will help cool the ground for tomorrow.