aggiegeog

From reports I'm seeing it is sleeting and covering everything across DFW. And freezing rain in BCS and likely extending into W Houston. I don't expect any precip in Tyler until closer to sunrise though radar returns are popping up all over eastern Texas within the past hour.

The surface is still pretty dry for N TX so doubt much of that batch makes it to the surface though it should help with top down moistening of the lower atmosphere.

Another evening where we are below the forecasted low before midnight 22 now vs NWS forecast of 24. I be we get down into the upper teens or right at 20 as the precip moves in later tonight. The surface is not near as dry in E TX vs N TX with DPs in the upper 10s to 20s as you move SE. Temps and DPs in NW East Texas are lower than even the latest HRRR by 3 degrees and in SE East Texas temps and DPs are running a touch above the latest HRRR.

I see that basically the whole state is covered in either a winter storm warning or watch.

Reviewing models for both storms I say worst case DFW sees 0.5" QPF, meaning say 0.1" QPF as mix being 0.25" accumulation and 0.4" as snow at 10:1 being 4" accumulation. Most likely it is closer to 1" QPF with all as snow and at 14:1 ratio meaning 10 to 14" of snow. And of course even higher is possible. So say a range of 4 to 24". Tyler could see 1.5 to 2" QPF but could lose 1/3 to mix and ratios more like 12:1. So 1 to 2" of ice and sleet along with 12 to 18" or snow. Worst case being 1" QPF and half lost to sleet being 1 to 2" sleet and 5" snow. Best case 2.5" QPF with 90% snow at 14:1 being 0.5 to 1" sleet and 30 to 36" snow. So say a range of 6 to 36".

Worst case for DFW is 4-7" with 8-14" most likely and 20"+ possible.

I just got my email from Ambit regarding the need to cut back on electrical use.

18Z GEFS snowdepth mean for Thursday morning is over 6" basically north of a Lubbock to Austin to Shreveport line. Over 12" north of a Amarillo to Waco to Texarkana line. Maxing at 17" around Sulphur Springs and Paris. Keep in mind this is the mean. Several members around 36" 10:1 in N and NE TX.

Over 1" QPF for N TX and over 2" QPF for NE TX. Some members around 3 feet of snow at 10:1 in NE TX.

GEFS is absolutely nuts. If correct it would shatter snowfall records for North and Northeast Texas.

DFW will do fin with this as they will see a combined >0.5" QPF easy all as snow and at ratios higher than 10:1. East Texas will likely see >1" QPF but some sleet may make the event closer to a 10:1 especially south of I-20. For the Tyler to Texarkana line I see less problems with mixing thus my forecasts being higher than modeled snow output. NE TX could have spots with 12-24" of snow this week.

I sure hope SHV goes with a watch areawide with this update.

I wonder if the colder than modeled temps we are seeing daily will adjust the storm track south.

Euro and ICON both have the coastal low further off of the coast causing less N TX precip though plenty for E TX. GFS and Canadian are further west with the low keeping it nearer to the coast brining more snow.

Models seem to be showing a QPF hole over DFW as the energy transfers into a Gulf low early Monday. Midweek system looks to track further west which should fill in the snow hole.

Doubtful DFW has outages from precipitation as it will be dry snow. As long as the grid is prepared for record demand then DFW should be fine. SE TX is another story where major icing will occur.

It will be interesting to see if FW and maybe SHV issue their first blizzard warnings ever. Seems to be a decent chance for FW west of I-35.

FW mentioning blizzard conditions this far out is surprising but well deserved. There will be blowing and drifting of the heavy high ratio snow. Especially along and west of I-35. East of I-35 ratios likely drop closer to 10:1 but QPF will be greater so totals will likely be similar. The second storm midweek will continue the hazards into late week so those of us with kids will have lots of virtual learning days to look forward to, yay lol.

That is a very DFW centric anomaly. Take today for example, a frozen mix is coating much of the state when only scattered light precip was modeled. The January snow was very well modeled even a 7-10 days beforehand. You cannot only consider a small geographic region. The Southern Plains are in the middle of one of the best winters in history with winter storms almost weekly somewhere in the region. This trend has no end insight as long as the -AO is in place.

SHV NWS extended the WAA until tomorrow, was originally only until noon today. Temps here only rose to 28 and seem to be dropping again. For now dry air near the surface is preventing more precip north of I-20, but that may change over time.

I am not concerned about missing out on the snow Monday along I-20 as models show good snow for most of the state they have just backed off on amounts as the wave is weaker and doesn't go negative tilt. Plenty of time for that to change even with the lower models currently I-20 corridor gets 3-6". The Canadian is crushing areas of N and NE TX Wed with >1" QPF of snow. Between the two storms most everyone will have 4-8 with some having a lot more than that.

I think the early week system is a 3-6" event for most north of I-10, with higher potential if the warm nose on models is overdone from greater ratios. We'll know more by Sat morning after the system moves ashore. The mid week storm will likely be pretty similar to the early week storm but maybe a bit warmer at the surface and colder in the upper levels possibly.

Haha, today was never supposed to be a big event but it has turned in an impactful one already with numerous accidents and multiple fatalities along with widespread school delays. I hope everyone stays safe today and stay home if possible. "The storm of the century" (comparable to 1895, 1899, 1977, 1983, 1989, 1996 and 2011) is for the the next 7-10 days combined considering it will be one of the longest stretches of sub freezing temps with some areas of N and NE TX set to see >200 hours below freezing, all time record lows possible, and multiple impactful winter precip events.

We will see GFS indicates the possibility.

Yea a big change. I will wait to see if it's a blip or a trend.