aggiegeog

We are looking at a massive winter storm stretching from the Southern Plains to the East Coast. The front arrives during the day Friday turning rain to freezing rain and sleet through the day as it marches SE across the state. The freeze line may stall somewhere over SE TX until Sat night but away from the coast it could advance quicker than modeled. Along I-20 >2" QPF is modeled most falling in <25F temps. Question is depth of the cold air for precip types for the northern 1/3 of the state. With the surface high shifting more west and stronger on recent models we should expect the 850mb 0C line to shift south. I expect snowfall totals to max at near 2' north of I-20 with widespread heavy amounts along and north of I-20. As you move south of I-30 more sleet will mix in with freezing rain becoming the main type from the Hill Country through Deep East TX. Some freezing rain likely reaches the coast by Saturday night. This will be a long duration event with onset being Friday and not ending until Sunday morning. Following the precip we look to get a reinforcing shot of cold air dropping lows to near 0 north of I-20 early next week. I am gonna watch for possible smaller systems to work in next week but nothing clear on that front yet. This is very similar to the first phase of 2021 but thankfully at this time it does not look to have that kind of staying power.

Op GFS is an outlier in how it handles the Baja low. I would discount it for now.

Also watch for when the parent upper low crosses the state early week. That could be a snow maker.

Looks like we are in for an epic winter storm this weekend across much of Texas. Front crashes through on Friday turning rain to freezing rain north to south Friday into Saturday. Areas along and north of I-20 may get lucky and its more sleet and snow. Along and north of I-10 looks very icy. Snow and mixed showers extend into Sunday morning for east and SE TX. Monday lows across N and NE TX could well approach 0. More snow or mix could be in the cards for the middle of next week also.

I expect near normal winter temps interspersed with significant Arctic blasts. Overall dry but with wet spells when the PNA trends more neutral. Hopefully we can get a couple -EPO/=PNA pairings through the winter.

Another near freezing highs day. Lindale is getting some flurries this afternoon from the band along I20 across E TX.

For Tyler, 2025 could well show up in the record book the same number of times as 2021 between record lows and record low high. 2021 had 5. 2025 has a legit shot at 5 from this event. Today's record low high was 31 and we had a high of 24. It is already down to 18 so tomorrow's record low of 19 will fall at midnight. Tomorrow's record low high is 36, that likely also falls. Friday's records of 19 and 35 will be close but are attainable. Today was also the latest ever sub 26 high. Basically this event is only rivaled by 1978 and 2021 for cold outbreaks around this time period of the 3rd week of Feb.

Widespread flurries across the N half of the state today. Areas south of favored lakes could see a couple inches otherwise just flurries and mist. Temps across N and NE TX will max out in the mid 20s with continued flurries. Tonight will clear out and wind will die down allowing temps to fall into the 5-15 range and some near the Red River that get snow today may go sub 0 tonight. Many will stay below freezing tomorrow and a few may stay below freezing Friday also.

The cold next week could shatter records especially if we do get some snow. North of I-20 may see -0s with widespread 0s. Record low mins and record low maxes are likely to fall as this event is just after the worst of 2021. Breaking 1978 and 2021 records is big.

Up and down temps for the next few days. Arctic front crashes through on Tue bringing a chance of winter precip through the day on Wed.

We are looking at a solid chance for an icing event across N TX mid week next week. The cold air initially arrives this weekend with further pushes through the week. Some chance for this to a be an ice storm for a large portion of the state, but we won't know how deep into the state until this weekend. Good chance that the remainder of the month stays cold with substantial blocking over the Arctic and well placed ridging out west. Enjoy these last couple warm days as those will be unlikely north of I-10 after this weekend until March.

Agreed this is a classic Southern Plains cold and stormy pattern which has extended staying power.

Blizzard warning from Beaumont to Lafayette.

Not many flakes but what is falling is perfect little stars.

Lift has looked like it will be better across E TX into N LA. This evenings flurries and dusting is just bonus, few hours before good stuff gets here.

Flurries are much more widespread this evening than was expected. Hoping this indicates a more moist 850mb than modeled.

Some mPing reports north of DFW so likely some flurries reaching the ground.

Over the past 20 years i have pride to myself on winter weather forecasting in E TX. These northern stream clippers are my favorite kind of system. Models and professionals always miss them. Upper lows are fun wet snow. Gulf lows are frustrating. Clippers are great because expectations are low but many surprise. They didn't need moisture just Arctic air as they create enough forcing to overcome dry air.

We need to watch the 700mb front and moisture at 850mb. Stronger front means more lift and more humid 850mb mean less snow wasted to evaporation. I honestly am not really liking any of the short range models on this one. I guess the WRF models are doing decently. Canadian seems to have the best handle on this event from the start going back a week. So WRF, Canadian and Hi Res Canadian. GFS like always is playing the game of catching up in the last day to not bust horribly. NAM is looking like trash this go around. ICON and others have never figured this event out.

SHV expanded WWA north to all counties south of I20. I expect further expansions of WWAs for N and NE TX later today depending on obs this evening. Where the bands set up across N and NE TX I expect wet bulbing to send temps into the low 20s and some spots could get a quick inch or maybe more.

Models starting to ramp up the northern stream portion. With most showing accumulation across OK and across the Red River into TX. WRF models starting to see the N TX area also. Models usually miss these northern stream events until very short range. Rain overspreading S TX currently along with drizzle and flurries along I10 now.

Big time band of snow in the Panhandle right now. Also some snow reaching the ground NW of DFW which is a great sign that the dry layer can be overcome as this was not modeled

Not certain but looks like it could be the 850mb front advecting moisture further north than modeled. That's my best guess but I will not claim that as fact. Looks like a positive sign at least. Looking at models the cloud layer (700mb) has saturated some 4 to 6 hours earlier than modeled this morning. This matches the moistening rate that occurred on the coast this morning. All very good signs for moisture. Still have to deal with the 850mb dry air layer. The 18Z Norman sounding is the only nearby midday sounding. It shows maybe a bit better moisture than modeled so that is another good sign.

Key to this whole event is to follow the 700mb front and where it generates the best forcing. It weakly is stationary along I20 today. By tonight it gains strength over NE TX and N LA as it begins to move SE. It moves off the coast by midday tomorrow. For C TX, watch how far SW the front can dig. To add: Moisture trends are good this morning with moisture building in ahead of schedule.

Watch that northern stream tomorrow and tomorrow night. If it's amped up, there could be widespread snow showers across OK, AR and N TX. Many get only flurries but there will be a coating to an isolated couple inches in spots. Canadian was best with last night's system which dropped some accumulating snow in OK and AR. This is why I still forecast potential for accumulating snow along and north of I20. Closer to I20 has the advantage of some moisture from the Gulf also.