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aggiegeog

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Everything posted by aggiegeog

  1. aggiegeog
    At this point I am not buying snow for SE Texas. A mix yes but not heavy snow. Heavy snow is possible for Temple to Lufkin. Light powder possible for I20 corridor.
  2. aggiegeog
    Gulf lows generally are not good for DFW. Need a upper low out of MX or a strong clipper from CO. Upper lows are more common and they produce wet snow. Clippers can give powder.
  3. aggiegeog
    18Z GFS coming in too warm so I think you can assume much less ice and better ratios further north. It is the warmest of the models currently.
  4. aggiegeog
    That area of showers and embedded Tstorms over N TX was not expected, was it?
  5. aggiegeog
    All good models are a go for snow up to I20. Outliers are UKMET and ICON but I can live with fringe models like that being outliers. The rest have snow of varying intensity up to DFW and Tyler. Ratios along I20 would be in the 15-20:1 range so instant accumulations and high ratios means whatever falls Tue will accumulate quickly.
  6. aggiegeog
    As has been the trend this season I expect a NW trend over the weekend. If I'm along and south of I10 I'm nervous this becomes a mix event. If the low trends NW or if the N stream vort is stronger then N and E TX could see some powder.
  7. aggiegeog
    18Z ICON is a reasonable outcome with a missed phase but enough northern stream energy to squeeze out a few inches Tue morning. It takes shockingly little moisture to produce good snow with these temps. As long as we can get above ~0.25" PW we will see snow. If we approach 0.5" PW we will get a big dump.
  8. aggiegeog
    If ICON and Canadian are close to right then we will see a widespread powdery 6-12" of snow on Tue. Very high ratio snows with a 10k+ foot DGZ and surface temps in the teens. Won't take much QPF to get a good amount of snow.
  9. aggiegeog
    Whatever falls north of Austin to Lufkin early next week should be powder. South of there will be a transition zone but should be frozen in some form all the way to the coast. Later week another storm but questions on how much cold is left.
  10. aggiegeog
    0Z Canadian with the casual -15F low Thu. I do think Thu could have ideal cooling and get some into single digits, but sub 0 is so hard though not impossible.
  11. aggiegeog
    Next week looks bitter cold with some chance of snow south of I-20 and freezing rain nearer to the coast. Many details to be worked out though.
  12. aggiegeog
    Yep, that was a wild run. plenty of model iterations to go before we know anything but the threat is there.
  13. aggiegeog
    Getting a bit of snow here now to end things.
  14. aggiegeog
    31F with freezing rain and sleet here now
  15. aggiegeog
    Yep so much potential. I think the low up north that is dumping on Amarillo killed it off.
  16. aggiegeog
    The backside snow looks pretty intense all the way down to near Austin tonight. the snow zone will narrow as you head south though. If it occurs some could end wake up to a surprise covering of snow in the HC and it could give substantial snow up along I-20. .
  17. aggiegeog
    Well then the Hi Res go crazy with the snow tonight. Basically I am telling people a lot of liquid is going to fall tonight and the temps at surface and aloft if very near freezing, make of that what you will. I could see nothing or 6"+.
  18. aggiegeog
    At this point over here I dont think we overcome the warmth to switch to accumulating snow. The joys of winter in TX, maybe some light snow showers in the morning.
  19. aggiegeog
    Not much precip here yet so temps have made it to the mid 30s, they seem to be settling back down a tad now though. 34 now in Lindale. A bit of sleet and some rain showers is all we have had. Models seem to maintain a slight warm nose until tomorrow tomorrow morning, hoping we can get a touch more cooling in mid levels so we can go snow while we have good forcing later today.
  20. aggiegeog
    For sure at this point spots in DFW proper could see 8", hoping we drop a bit and convert to snow later out east.
  21. aggiegeog
    Yep this is very reminiscent of 2/2010
  22. aggiegeog
    Time to now cast, you can look at HRRR or RAP if you want but best bet is to see what is to your SW for precip and west for temps.
  23. aggiegeog
    Pretty impressive reports out of DFW and West this morning.
  24. aggiegeog
    DFW starting to see some sleet. With the lower wet bulbs east of Dallas towards Tyler things may be more sleet/snow mix before rain mixes in closer to noon.
  25. aggiegeog
    As expected temps have risen to at or above freezing in man y areas though with DPs in the low 20s we have plenty of room for wet bulbing back to freezing. The warm nose aloft for DFW should wet bulb to freezing +/- 1C also for I20 in N and E TX a bit warmer as you get towards LA. Difference is DFW loses its warm nose during the evening and E TX warm nose lowers and becomes stronger during the evening. For E XT the transition to all snow will be after midnight.
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