aggiegeog

My wife's family in Shelby Co is still without power. Been a long week over there.

Tyler set the record low max yesterday. If it drops to 12 before midnight tonight it will set the record low for today and tomorrow. Late Jan record values are surprisingly warm so no surprise they are getting broken with this spell. Some records are at risk next weekend as well.

Band of snow moving across DFW now. We will see how far East it can survive.

Her in Lindale it never hit 20F with constant flurries all day. Managing to get minor accumulation of snow on top of the sleet layer.

Maybe 0.1" freezing rain with close to an inch of sleet. 29F right now with colder temps moving in from the west and north. We may see 2" sleet with this first round. I expected the first round to be mainly freezing rain around here so great sign that it's 50/50 or even leaning more to sleet. Round 2 should be all sleet turning to snow tomorrow morning.

850mb front stalls over my head all day tomorrow. Thankfully 925mb sub -5C will freeze a lot of that for me. But depending on 850mb front could shift precip.types around

Very light but happy to see that the drizzle type activity here tonight is in the form of sleet. Hopefully that is the case in the morning.

I honestly dont recall.

Deep E TX could really get hammered tomorrow night.

850mb front on HRRR and NAM reach Tyler around midday tomorrow though 850mb freeze line does lingering over N TX until tomorrow night. Ahead of 850mb front 850mb temps are running >10C while immediately behind the front 850mb temps drop to under 5C. Under 5C 850mb with 925mb running below -5C is a sleet look. Western NE TX looks like freezing rain through around midday tomorrow then sleet dominant after that until 850mb freeze line moves in around daybreak Sunday switching anything that falls Sunday to snow. I do think western NE TX sees significant icing but not the major damaging ice that will be seen further south and east. I believe the worst icing will fall from Austin to Palestine to Longview and on into N LA. I do admit that it is a close call and a couple degrees either way can swing affects dramatically.

Ice storm warning now for East Texas along and south of I-20. I still think I have a chance to get lucky and be more on the sleet side but its cutting it real close.

The front is along a Sherman to Wichita Falls to Lubbock line. Temps now in mid teens across northern Panhandle. Freeze line bisects OK south of Tulsa to OKC to Lawton and is through the Panhandle and entering NW TX region.

March 2014 featured very heavy sleet and lots of lightning where I was living in Lindale. Being in a metal bardo at the time the combo of heavy sleet and frequent thunder was wild. This area could see similar situation again but much longer lasting.

I am going out an limb with my forecast but I think the major freezing rain will be pushed further SE. I am forecasting more sleet than anything for Tyler and NW. Could be a sharp line somewhere around Tyler/Longview area stretching SW to NE. That will be difference in who sees .1" ice and 4" sleet and who sees .7" ice and 1" sleet. Hopefully tonight into tomorrow morning stays pretty light so we can wait on colder mid levels before heavy precip arrives. Could be thunderstorms involved in this frozen precip so some convective bands will drop very heavy sleet or freezing rain for periods of time.

I would place the Arctic boundary near a Canadian, TX to OKC to south of Tulsa line. I may be off on the eastern side of that as the DP change isn't as dramatic over there. Daytime will help define it better.

Sub 0F temps early next week cannot be discounted at this point. I do not expect to break the 2021 records but could approach some of them.

GFS showing sub 0 west of DFW on Monday and east of DFW on Tue. Could happen where a solid base of snow/sleet is laid down this weekend.

NWS starting to upgrade watches to warning across the state.

Models are back to trending colder earlier tomorrow evening/night. I think DFW sees sleet mixing with the rain as early as rush hour but surface temps will likely still be at or above freezing at that time. DFW road issues likely begin around midnight when temps drop to the upper 20s. That is unless it turns to mostly sleet during the evening then 34F wont stop accumulations. NE TX transitions will likely occur a couple hours after DFW transition especially at the surface as Ouachitas will slow the shallow surface cold. There could see sleet mixing in by late evening though.

RGEM prints out over 3" QPF in sub freezing air in Tyler. Almost all of that per that model would be freezing rain, gotta pray the warm nose is overdone, >6" of sleet is preferable to >1" of ice accretion.

Followed by Tulsa and SHV.

Norman is the first office to issue watches for this, many more to come.

That was mostly sleet and there is a chance this could be mostly sleet though I do think for DFW this is looking like a bit of freezing rain Friday shifting towards sleet by late Friday. By Saturday afternoon and into Sunday DFW should be mostly snow.

Today's models are trending towards a slower ejection of the Baja trough. This is looking like a Friday through Sunday storm for much of the state. Maybe not as intense of precip rates but looking at potentially 48 hours of frozen precip.

End of NAM has NTX already covered in sleet by noon Friday.