Douche away; I'm a big boy, I can take it; lol. I have read enough of your post to know you have a great handle on the dynamics of the atmosphere. Your statements about sfc/upper air pattern analysis versus modeled frontal & sfc pressure center positions are never taken lightly by me. It is something I try to constantly remind myself about. There are many times I just look at the sfc & upper air analysis and physically draw what that look should lead to in terms of feature placements. I do think the pattern layout described in your post above certainly is not one usually favorable for a warm front to bodily rush across SNE. But skies have really cleared out of all most all of CT, as well as southeastern NY, temps are rising quickly across western CT, but the rich dew points are still sitting down across portions of eastern PA/NJ. Certainly not a classic summertime warm front passage? Southeastern NY and western / southwestern CT were my main concern area and that continues. The increasing sunshine across CT may open the door to the threat migrating into central CT, as well as the greater Springfield area, but dew points really need to get going. Noted SPC is yet to issue a MCD for this afternoon, which tells me they are not as bullish right now, even though their updated outlook remains mostly unchanged.