WxWatcher007

00z 12z

12z Euro quite a bit north. More than I thought it’d be. Interesting.

Sad stuff

Different interests for sure. Nothing wrong with it. Just crazy reading at times. Unless that trough trends much deeper I have a hard time believing a Hudson like track. I think something near or just south of the south coast is most likely, bringing plenty of rain to the region. It’d still need to be pretty vigorous aloft for a severe threat if it’s going west, which I guess is possible as guidance (minus GFS) has some deepening of the low at our latitude. I’d say I’ll take it for lake effect snow, but I don’t think it works with southerly flow in January.

Be safe down there. May need to start posting here more so I don’t throw my phone out the window.

I see this is going to be an excruciating week of reading. Christ.

Riding west of the Hudson will do that. Congrats Binghamton.

Whew

With a few more added.

Agree. Still quite a lot to sort out, starting with how quickly this gets into the Atlantic, how long it stays there, how much it reorganizes, and where it comes back inland. At least a rain shutout looks unlikely…

Now that the GFS is sobering up, let’s see how it adjusts. At least initially it looks like it’s back to the hellacious PRE/quasi-PRE idea somewhere in New England. Global tracks all looked closer to the coast with the Euro and Ukie modestly intensifying the low as it heads off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Likely due to trough enhancement, but anomalously warm coastal waters could support marginal tropical under the right conditions. Rain continues to be the story here obviously as this’ll likely spend a lot of time inland. I’ll be wary of last minute shifts east/south all the way to the end but for now it looks like a close approach from some type of discernible low is increasingly possible. I think you need that to maximize rain chances. If it’s 1010mb ground road kill like Tip said the other day sliding ENE off Virginia Beach, this is a run of the mill rainer. If that. If it’s a low deepening through the 990s with a center crossing over or near the south coast, then we’re talking. Maybe not for the debs that want 85kt/975mb mini nuke, but it’s early August and this is what we got. It’s better than dews talk.

Steinhatchee would've been a great center intercept call despite all the wobbling last night. Like you said, eastern side looks very well organized. Now we wait to see when and where it leaves the coast. A lot more rain coming to Florida… All Debby had to do was landfall

Pressure down to about 979-980mb. Pretty substantial drop the last 12 hours. edit: that came from the final dropsonde

Those kind of loops are excellent at showing actual motion, thanks.

Recon now reports a 30nm eye that’s open in the northeast per latest VDM. 77kt FL wind and extrapolated pressure at 979.8mb.

I bet Cedar Key folks are hoping for a northward resumption soon.

If I were chasing this one I’d probably be in Steinhatchee, and more than a little nervous that it’ll come in further south due to this more eastward movement. That said, these can wobble a lot. Add in the tilting like @csnavywx noted and the tightening of the core, the recon fixes are even more important. The radar the last 90 minutes has been interesting. Seeing lightning now in the eastern eyewall as it tries again to tighten and close off.

Honestly I don’t think there’s been anything terribly surprising today. Despite the fits and starts or organization, we’ve seen lower end rapid intensification the last 36 hours. It’s organizing at a faster pace the closer it gets to the coast, as expected, and it should be a solid category one perhaps “low end” two at landfall. The most interesting thing has been the level of wobbling as this tried to tighten an inner core. That could have downstream impacts if this turns east sooner and reaches the Atlantic faster but we’ll see if that actually happens. Thought we’d see more consensus between the GFS/Euro but no dice.

7.96 met summer here.

Just so we're all working with the same facts. Not all from Debbie but you get the picture. WPC

Bear in mind though that you look to long range heading for landfalling TCs because wobbles are natural. Center fixes from recon will be extremely helpful.

There’s no nuance on Twitter (and sometimes here) too. A lot of people think RI means a doom scenario TS to cat 4, but there are plenty of instances like this one where you go from a minimal TS to a higher end one or whatever. We talk about categories and wind, but retirement of this name will hinge on the extent of rainfall along the coast and inland. Hard for a lot of folks to be objective (not throwing shade, it is what it is).

It’s pretty unusual. The NHC track tells us where we think this is headed though. I really do think it’s a close call on whether this gets back into the Atlantic long enough and in a structural condition that allows for meaningful reintensification. Where this makes landfall I. Florida probably has downstream impacts for the Carolinas.

Love this

It looks like it. The organizational trend has been consistent through the day after the earlier dry air intrusion. Still don’t quite have deep convection fully wrapped but that’s probably not as much as an inhibitor as earlier. Meanwhile on the model front the GFS keeps driving this well south of other guidance. Very big spread at a fairly short lead. They’re going in opposite directions lol.