WxWatcher007

Both Beryl and Debby are examples this year of how much of an eternity away this is given the lack of a clear and clean recurve steering pattern. We should also not forget that no mainland US impacts ignores the very real risk to PR and USVI/Antilles. Or Atlantic Canada. We don’t have a center. We haven’t seen potential land interaction with the Antilles. We don’t know the orientation of EC trough or if it’ll even be there the way the models project post D6. We don’t know the amplitude of the Atlantic ridge post D6. It’s ok to say this is worth watching. Doesn’t mean doom is coming. We could all do without the hyperbole.

The pattern suggests that there’s a couple of ways the guidance could shift west. It may still very well go OTS. But if it gets to the Bahamas and guidance is still trying to pop some type of cutoff that’s going to lead to a close U.S. approach. At least. I know tropical is an imby thing around here but we also tend to forget about our Atlantic Canada friends. Lee (‘23), Fiona (‘22), Larry (‘21), Teddy (‘20), Dorian (‘19) had varying direct impacts on the region with Lee, Fiona, and Teddy coming from patterns that initially looked like an easy recurve. Tbh @Hazey and Atlantic Canada should be watching as closely as anyone.

Our friend hopes for San Diego wx nine months out of the year. Not that there’s anything wrong with that…I guess.

Early but here’s the first super ensemble. Folks in the islands need to pay attention to this one. Once again there are major short term differences between the GFS and Euro on intensity as this reaches the islands. There is an avenue of less shear, but I’m hesitant to expect rapid take off because of what the shear is currently doing. It looks low on analysis… But reality suggests otherwise… There’s still the caveat for the long range. We’re still in wait and see mode.

I hear it’s beautiful this time of year though.

Saw this from Windspeed earlier

Epic event unfolding in Quebec

Glad the rain was beneficial. Doubt it’s the last event this season…

I’m all for variable wx to break up the monotony, but weeks and weeks of 60 and rain? Not judging just asking.

Summer of yore. Just need 1938 to track from New Haven to Newport.

Almost escaped with the slowly departing trough over the Atlantic but this other one pops as a big ridge flexes in the wake of the trough. That’s one way to do it without seeing the rest of the run…but definitely not easy with the original trough there.

BDR gusted to 49mph but otherwise winds are reasonable.

I’m just saying for right now. There is definitely a signal at this lead that a close approach is possible, but at least in my mind we’re only at the wait and see (and analyze) stage.

With the prices we pay here in CT the grid needs to be titanium and gold plated.

I’m no mod, but please, for the love of God, let’s keep this thread to analysis, and if you can’t analyze, something that’s rooted in meaningful discussion.

Zero reason for any concern in the U.S. yet.

With all of the conversation in the main thread covering this wave, I figured it was time to start a dedicated thread. The theme of vigorous waves emerging in the Atlantic this season continues with a new wave in the central Atlantic. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby, located inland over the northeastern United States. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands over the tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart Models are effectively unanimous in developing this wave as it reaches the Antilles in a few days. On the ensembles, the genesis signal is robust across guidance, increasing confidence that Ernesto isn’t too far away. What has captured attention are two things. First, the potential development and intensification environment looks favorable. With high end SST anomalies and OHC, there will be fuel. In addition, the wave is currently south of SAL and has a very good moisture envelope, reducing the chances at least as of this post, that dry air won’t be a tremendous inhibitor. Shear looks manageable for the foreseeable future. The result is the guidance signaling strong development, though at different stages. The second thing is obviously the track. Again—this is something for the Antilles to watch. Guidance brings this close as early as a few days from now early next week. Longer term prospects are unclear, but this doesn’t immediately scream as a safe recurve pattern with the potential of a cutoff trough in the eastern CONUS and ridging in the Atlantic. I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to stay away from long range declarative statements. This is something to watch. It is not a bona fide threat to the continental U.S. at this time. Watch the ensembles and where/how the long range trough develops.

The first thing to remember is that there are other critical factors that determine level of named storm activity and high end H/MH activity like wind shear and instability/moisture. Everything to me suggests those factors will be favorable as early as next week. If we’re just taking SSTs, emphatically yes. The basin is near historic to historically warm—not just in SST anomalies, but the extent of the anomalies, oceanic heat content, and those anomalies. And these temps usually peak in September. The train is coming.

Just like winter there’s a line that can be walked. But wishcasting and mehcasting are the paths of least resistance. I agree to an extent. Looking at op runs are just weenie fodder at this range. Even looking at 500mb on them independently of one another you don’t gleam much if you’re just looking for will mby get something interesting. There’s a place for that for weenies (myself included so I’m not trying to be holier than thou) so I get it. No different than winter. BUT I do think that a long series of ensembles and op runs at range can tell you a lot about the steering environment and TC genesis/intensification environment if you’re willing to put on blinders on the other stuff. We know it’s “easier” to forecast ACWB, ridge/trough combinations, teleconnections, MJO/CCKW passage at range which all play substantial roles in tropical development and steering. Once there is a center then you can get to the other stuff, but going back to the early Debby conversation—for this area and I’d say for the entire east coast, you can see the outline of an ominous pattern/landfall window long before something develops. What drives me insane in this subforum uniquely is the rush to lock in 1938 or dismiss something that’s a threat even if it doesn’t necessarily end up 1938. You have to work the problem to the end with tropical. There are enough examples of massive guidance shifts just in the last half decade or so that impacted the U.S. or Atlantic Canada. Just my humble and long winded opinion lol. About everything lines up. I expect to be on the road a lot if hits aren’t poorly timed with work.

Seasons in seasons. About 1/3 of the way through August, the climo step down is gradually accelerating, and soon the dog days will turn into school days lol.