WxWatcher007

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/ 10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory. SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

Fred has regained TS status.

Yep. Grace seems hell bent on taking the Fred route into the Greater Antilles buzzsaw. *shrug*

Slowly but surely, Fred is pulling itself together.

That’s awesome. Looks like tropical

Yeah—I wonder how, if at all, PV shear impacts Grace if it’s further south. Agree on the ridge in August given how big time it is but once we get to September and October that ridge probably opens the door to East Coast threats as troughs become more likely. I can see a situation where you get big ridge trapping waves and steering them west—>front comes east to weaken ridge and tugs TC northward toward east coast—>ridge rebuilds Another thing to watch is whether we really see ridging in maritime Canada in September. If we do, as the guidance seems to suggest, watch out. Not saying every system will be an EC threat, but this is a very strong signal for multiple threats should the steering pattern materialize during the peak.

That’s a simple explanation They had two radars on the flight so they would know.

Unbelievable that RIC is letting me down.

Such a sensitive forecast. It looked like a more poleward solution was on the table when the 12z guidance initialized more organized, and now it’s all shifted well south but could change quickly if there’s a center reformation or greater organization. Big changes all in the span of a few hours. Fascinating stuff.

What an incredibly sensitive forecast. Recon finds a mess of a system, and subsequently the guidance shifts south and effectively shreds Grace over the Greater Antilles. A lot to sort out because small changes will have big downstream impacts.

Weird recon flight.

Yep. We’ll have to wait for surface observations to confirm whatever is happening in the most intense convection. **shrug**

Latest dropsonde report says it was dropped in the center, but they haven’t sampled anything further west, which looks to be showing some organization on radar. Interesting. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 17:49ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF) Storm Name: GraceStorm Number: 07 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 02 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 18Z on the 14th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 15.7N 59.8W Location: 109 statute miles (175 km) to the ENE (76°) from Roseau, Dominica. Marsden Square: 042 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1014mb (29.95 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 23.9°C (75°F) 305° (from the NW) 2 knots (2 mph) 1000mb 120m (394 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 23.7°C (75°F) 285° (from the WNW) 2 knots (2 mph) 925mb 804m (2,638 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 19.2°C (67°F) 325° (from the NW) 3 knots (3 mph) 850mb 1,535m (5,036 ft) 18.2°C (64.8°F) 16.4°C (62°F) 85° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 17:34Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 15.74N 59.81W - Time: 17:34:15Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 15.74N 59.82W - Time: 17:36:52Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 2 knots (2 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 90° (from the E) - Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 841mb to 1012mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 290° (from the WNW) - Wind Speed: 2 knots (2 mph)

It’s not a bad idea to sample the broader circulation, and it could allow for a NE to SW pass later.

Not seeing anything particularly impressive so far but the western side still needs to be examined.

I’d be shocked (and would toss it) if it didn’t come in stronger, at least for the next 48 hours. It should continue to organize before PR. After that TBD but that organization should tick it northward enough to miss much of DR/Haiti.

You can see how initializing stronger before the Greater Antilles impacts downstream. What a ridge too. Still a longer range set of solutions so the usual model caveats apply.

No surprise the guidance is picking up on higher end solutions for Grace now that they’re initializing stronger, but good God at the strength of that ridge. That’s a legit Miami and Gulf threat.

Probably. Not sure it’s chugging all the way to Texas however. Really high ceiling for Grace though IMO.

Seems a little far west to me, but I guess we’ll see. Without a trough or weakness induced in the ridge it’d just keep chugging WNW.

GFS basically threads the needle again and brings a strong system into the Gulf.

Recon is en route to Grace.