WxWatcher007

Wind aside, the 12 HREF really got my attention. It'll be interesting to see how the high resolution guidance looks at this setup. Early on, it doesn't look pretty. I know for my area it has been a wild year for river flooding. A widespread high rainfall event could bring the worst flooding yet.

We toss for now. Wake me up when it gets to the Antilles.

Flooding is a better bet depending on where the rain sets up, but 10% TOR is nothing to scoff at. This is a high end remnant setup.

There are going to be some surprised folks in CT on Thursday morning.

Ida's ghost doing more work than a fully animated Henri ever could 500,000 without power in CT by 15z Thursday as Eversource says they assumed the forecast was for light rain (I kid, I kid)

Oh, and here's the probability matched mean. Thanks @CT Rain. Outrageous signal.

12z HREF looks big time. This is pretty nuts for a mean.

It could very well be. I think this is the best signal for a big rain event I’ve seen all year, and depending on where the warm front is, we could see an overproducer because the setup favors highly efficient rainfall. It’s just still a close call to me where the axis of heaviest rain ends up. PA is a lock to me, but for SNE, while CT is most favored, a shift N or S is the difference between a major event or something even higher end.

3k would be a major event verbatim, but I’m not going all in yet.

Always plenty of rain to go around in “winter”

Probably worth a separate thread for Ida remnants IMO. This is going to be a high end event for someone.

NAM Gone Wild Where do we sign?

Yup. Anniversary is actually today.

1938 is the benchmark hurricane for the region, but Carol was big time. Catastrophic surge and damage in SE CT and RI.

Yeah, it’s ugly. Nothing to scoff at up here too in CT. High resolution models will be crazy lol.

WPC has mentioned the door being open for a high risk upgrade, especially in parts of PA. That in itself is incredible. Western MD, WV and PA needs to pay close attention to this one.

I think PA is squarely in the crosshairs, but for my area, which is more than double normal rainfall since June 1 and has seen **three** top 5 river flood events in the last 60 days, this looks like it could be ugly. It's a really efficient setup for a big rainfall event, as Tomer lays out so well.

This is one hell of a setup for a high end rainfall event IMO. Don't really care much about wind potential until we're closer. Someone is going to see a significant flash flood event, but where the stripe of most efficient rain production is still a bit of an open question (though PA is probably in trouble). That said, even a widespread area of high but not extreme rainfall is going to be bad for smaller rivers and creeks. Especially here. I know Elsa and Fred were big rain producers, but the widespread nature of 2-4" rainfall on the guidance has me wondering the last time we saw anything like that from a tropical standpoint.

This is an absolutely phenomenal thread that everyone should read. There is a legitimate high end remnant tropical event possible this week.

The strongest signal of the season so far on guidance for TC genesis and intensification has been for newly designated Invest 90L. Expected to curve but long way out. Discuss. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ida, located inland over western Mississippi, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Kate, located over the central tropical Atlantic. 1. Satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that an area of low pressure has formed over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic in association with a tropical wave that recently moved off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

This far out, I’m betting on a trough that kicks it, but that WNW heading looked a little Florence-ish to me. We’ve seen ridging time and again pop up or flex for storms this season, and that’s something worth watching especially in maritime Canada. Well this signal for TC genesis and intensification has been massive. Easily the biggest signal of the year. It’s been there for like a week now. The NHC had a cherry off Africa before the wave pushed off. I’d be surprised if it didn’t become a major eventually.

“Is your oar hitting ground?”

We have Kate! Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (3) Hurricanes: 9 (1) Major Hurricanes: 5 (1)

I like where you place your trust.

Surge is the caveat, good catch. That’s how Katrina was able to build such a massive surge. A big steady state major will likely have more storm surge than one that undergoes RI right before landfall. I was talking more about wind/rain.