WxWatcher007

Another earthquake in northern NJ. 2.7 this time.

Now all that said, you have to get the activity in the first place. The tropical Atlantic, while probably becoming more favorable in the coming days with the MJO change, still isn't a lock for high end activity. There's still work to do with instability. and this is the time of year where SAL still lurks But compared to prior years, this actually doesn't look bad

That's exactly it. If you had a more displaced jet you 1) open the door to more shear being imparted on a TC, which would lower potential and 2) more on point with this subject, you make it much harder for an "easy" recurve into the open Atlantic because the jet being displaced leads to the subtropical high being displaced--"blocking" a storm from easily recurving OTS depending on in-situ conditions (like is at TC following another into a weakness in Atlantic ridging). So think of it this way--there are always going to be weaker troughs/fronts that can serve as a kicker, but with a jet that is displaced so far to the north you get ridging that can steer waves further west into the Caribbean (where a landfall is all but guaranteed) or the southwest Atlantic, where a ridge could keep a wave/TC plowing west or a weaker trough/front could turn something north/northwest along the East Coast. This is part of the reason why this seems like more of an EC season, at least through the end of the month. The seasonal steering pattern has been highly favorable for US strikes, and the background environment with ENSO implies that this kind of predominant ridge/trough pattern could last into the peak of the season. (image below from Webb) I chose these time stamps for 10 days out, but this is an enormous signal for carrying anything that develops in the Atlantic west, provided it doesn't develop in the central Atlantic subtropics. That's why you see such a robust signal from the GFS/Euro operational guidance. There's a massive ridge and no currently modeled weaknesses to turn something OTS. If things got active in the Atlantic in the last 2/3 of August someone will be in trouble.

Not terribly surprising given the SST and instability environment in the SW Atlantic

Our annual up the bay run!

I’d rather see that on guidance ten days out or whatever than some big trough signal over my head—that all of the guidance tries to pull something into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic is really all I need to see at this stage. Though it’s obviously clown range early. You’re absolutely right. That ended up becoming a named storm eventually but that easily did hurricane damage.

We haven’t had a hurricane strike but we’ve been pretty active. Irene, Sandy, Fay, Isaias, Henri…not to mention all of the Atlantic Canada strikes including their storm of record (Fiona). It just hasn’t been high end for us, which I do think is unusual given the number of hits.

18z wasn’t really your friend but it did keep most of the bad wx to the east.

For up our way they matter so I don’t disagree there—but I don’t think we’re getting good tropical unless there’s a good pool of higher end deep fuel as a hurricane is rounding the SE coast and slingshotting north. Of course that starts with SST. We’ve had some good years with warmth up and down the EC and I think this is one of the best in the recent active period (2017-) with SSTa and OHC. Better than we saw in 2020 with Isaias and the other recent big heat years in the basin. Combine that with high instability off the coast and a generally favorable environment so far off the EC and anything legitimate in the SW Atlantic and subtropics should cook.

Nothing more than poor man’s eye candy. At least the tropics are warming up. I do think we’re ripe if we keep this general summer pattern with repeated bouts of Atlantic ridging, but that becomes harder obviously as the seasonal change begins aloft in September. Everyone posts SSTs, but OHC is where it’s at. You need to keep high end tropical going as high end tropical for as long as you can along the coast. We’re not getting squat if a system is passing 150nm off Hatteras. It’s gotta tuck imo.

Hope for a push west into Georgia

12z EPS was quite aggressive today. The sooner we get a low to form the higher the odds of genesis becomes. Note where the highest probabilities are. Looking at the GEFS/GFS however there’s still a lot of uncertainty with this one.

A little surprised that the EPS was so bullish on the disturbance at 12z. Very high odds of a TD with modest odds of a TS. Note where the highest probabilities are.

12z Euro was a bit more robust at 850mb. Gets a good bit of rain into NC and points north. I think that much like Dexter, models could be playing catch up with this if there is a pocket of lighter shear available to the eventual low.

Signal is still kind of muddled but the 12z Euro brings a slug of rain into the DC area points east from whatever comes of the Atlantic lemon.

Agree with this mostly—models are definitely consistent in showing this is worth watching and the steering pattern looks ripe, I just meant the final outcome is uncertain.

Models will probably be all over the place for a while

2023-25 look like the worst since the mid 1990s https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/06/expect-a-long-summer-of-wildfire-smoke-for-north-america/ I agree in part. It’s very true that things are more hyped, but the increasing frequency and extent of these events (heat and smoke) do matter. Today may not be the worst but we have had some smoke events in recent years that were very impactful on air quality. Obviously not the 80s lol but a whole generation (or two) doesn’t have that frame of reference of very poor air quality physiologically.

A different kind of Montreal Express…

This is really good stuff, thanks for posting. I agree, and I think the current orange is a candidate, GFS depictions notwithstanding. Notice how the Euro takes the follow up wave and makes that a Caribbean cruiser at 00z. The steering pattern is there. You may actually want the current lemon to get further north to weaken the ridge but not sure that’ll happen.

Interesting that the model signal is still there but backed off some after being more aggressive yesterday.

Dog days of summah are here.

Won’t be long until 95L is a TC.

Air filtration systems for all