WxWatcher007

This is a five. Easily.

Holy moly. 928.0mb extrapolated pressure. Peak FL winds of 140kt and SFMR of 138, 139, 144kts. Wow.

Plenty of time for the last second kick east.

Recon in storm and approaching the center.

Recon is about to find something insane. You rarely ever see this in the basin.

Haha beat me to it. Recon down to 10k ft.

It’s amazing. HAFS can’t even keep up with the rate of intensification. We’ll see how high it goes before the ERC.

Recon is fairly close. They should start descending shortly but it’ll probably be a while until they get the first center fix in.

It’s still east of NE verbatim, but was west overall in LF location—a direct hit on Nova Scotia as opposed to a track near/over Newfoundland at 12z and 06z. Really hard to figure out specifics of this steering pattern long range but the trend seems to be west the last ~36 hours.

50mph gain in 12 hours.

With Lee becoming a major and Margot now expected to become a hurricane, forecast is in even better shape. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (9) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot

Skipped straight to cat 4

Meh. Glorified nor’easter.

Settle down lol

High of 94.5°

I think this can adjust west further, but not that far. This’d be a lock if that trough were going negative, but it looks like those pulling for a hit will have to rely on positioning and timing.

It’s intensifying at an extraordinary rate…

Still just getting started too

I think that one is to sample the environment?

Those hits are great for a Typhoon Tip memorial dopamine drip, but always lead to a hell of a crash--as we saw all last "winter".

That's all I'm following at this point (still) Don't care where Lee gets placed exactly on a TT plot.

That's where I think recon would be very helpful. Just in general I'm always wary of models underplaying the strength of ridging, and that has been an issue this summer. Here, it matters because as you know the further west this goest the more threatening this becomes to someone if that trough continues to trend towards more amplified.

Right. Obviously plenty of wave activity and possible beach erosion, but this turns north well east of the east coast. The only reason why this thread is active is because there's enough of a signal for a ridge to block a quick escape OTS as a trough pulls it north.

It's def not a classic look. If it were, the odds would obviously be higher. I'm at 55% OTS/25% Atlantic Canada/20% New England, with eastern NE favored more than some type of direct SNE hit. As for intensity, obviously it'll be weaker and not a major lol, but that was never on the table unless this got to the Bahamas and rode up the coast--which wasn't going to happen with the first trough. That said, this far out idk how we can accurately predict intensity when we don't know heading/location, speed, and how far along in ET transition this would be in.

Absolute torch here. Was over 90 before noon.