WxWatcher007

Better to have the radar down during this boring stretch than in January when we have our 974mb up the Hudson rainer.

Maybe it was a 5 right before landfall, but to me it looks like the recon data right at LF was high end 4.

12z EPS 18z spaghetti

Problem is if you did, the column would find a way to torch to 36°

I really like the briefings that some of these WFOs do. Good information here and at the link.

What the hell happened in the main thread?

I don’t think it’ll blow up to a major or anything like that, but the disco also mentioned having more time over the Gulf Stream, which should help with convection. I do think there’s still a well enough defined center on radar that it could become more of an inner core with time.

Yikes. Charleston flooding is always a lock.

I expected intensification after that ERC that night, but it was stunning to see how far it went.

Back out over water now. Maybe Ian overperforms again? There’s going to be legit surge along the coastline.

Yeah, normally you’d see that come up the coast some or hook right OTS

Hard pass on snow in October. Too early.

Weeks and weeks of boredom

East money. Obviously the last minute explosion was wild but the environment was primed for a big dog. You could see it from a mile away. Still thinking October produces a couple good storms too if we can get some seeds in the Caribbean.

I’m back in DC for the first time in three years!

Yeah, I’d definitely wait to see if it’s even worth it. While it sucks to miss a storm, it also sucks to chase an underperformer. I know from experience lol.

Not much of a window IMO for it to adjust that much east. You also have to consider whether you’d be wasting money if you travel and this washes out as a strong TS with an ill defined center. Even if it comes in as a 75kt cane you won’t likely be close enough to see those gusts because that’s a flood/surge zone near Charleston. If it were a high 2 or 3 it’d be more worth it I think, but until I see a more definitive move toward that potential it’s a very low likelihood.

Good luck. Keep us updated if you can. You’d need to head further south, I think, otherwise it’s a waste. It’ll probably degrade quickly if you’re not near the center. It’s also still unclear how good the structure of Ian will be after it crosses. I think it’ll be a hurricane at the next landfall, but based on the current track it doesn’t look like there’s a lot of time to maximize potential. If I were chasing, and lord knows I tried figuring it out, I’d probably position in North Charleston and be ready to go west or east. Much of Charleston will be underwater no matter what Ian does so I wouldn’t do that.

I was just about to post. One of the wildest live shots I’ve ever seen. They had to call him in lol.

Extremely close. They may upgrade that pre-landfall period on reanalysis, but it looked to me that Ian got right up to the line and maybe pulled back a bit based on the recon observations. No difference for the landfall zone, though. The damage there will be catastrophic.