WxWatcher007

I’m not back, but here’s my first call. About a 60/30/10 split between Euro/GFS/Others. Hard to trust any of them imo but I think a compromise is more likely than utter capitulation by either side. May the odds be ever in our favor and we can take ‘em up tomorrow from NYC to Maine.

It was the cold that got me. Thought we had a chance when December wasn’t +435°. Then we had epic pretty colors at 500 in January and some legitimate storms that all found ways to miss. I was cautiously optimistic, not APATT, but the result was all the same.

When there’s a continual cold feed it makes the lack of snow all the more egregious. At least if it’s a blowtorch you know you have no shot. My shoe size may be a bit bigger, but we’re wearing the same brand brother.

Story time with cousin Donnie. I’ve had the misfortune of canceling winter exceedingly few times in my life. The first was January 2015. Living in DC and watching you all cash in on consecutive weekends while we missed out tore my winter weenie soul from my body. I knew then that my differences with winter were irreconcilable, and I divorced myself from having any faith in it. It worked. I started The Panic Room and glorious years of soulless winter observation occurred. I came back home in 2018—just in time for this historic stretch of horrific winter wx and held to my arm’s length treatment of winter tracking. But over time, the lies winter whispered in my ear became more sophisticated. The pattern looked extraordinary. The Atlantic would save us. The Pacific would save us. Our latitude would. It was always ten days away and never to be, but the lies in animations were so appealing I began to have hope again. Until December 2022. The epic pattern that folks tracked for nearly a month led to an all time event in Buffalo, and rain here. I knew then it was time to pull the plug, and I did. This time it was the cold that seduced me. If we just had cold in place, I was told, eventually something would happen. There was snow on Christmas Eve. Ponds and rivers freezing. Hope in the air. It breathed life into my winter weenie soul once again, only to have the inevitable happen. Another disastrous winter. In order to know the true depth of despair, one must first have hope. I made that mistake believing in winter 2024-25. Never again. Rather than crap up threads, I’m just going to go away.

I’m ashamed. The retired Reaper and Lord High Executioner got too comfortable. Got too caring in watching people get snow. Got too open to allowing winter to restart my cold, dead, heart. I had hope, and it killed me (again). May the darkness be eternal during this Godforsaken season.

Exactly. It went even worse than I thought here.

Not even a dusting here, but I’m sincerely happy for those that did get snow.

Snow on snow. Congrats.

Just popping in to wish y’all well. Good luck tonight.

2013-14 is the GOAT. Basically wall to wall winter from mid December to March, early January through March for DC proper. Maybe not the greatest aggregate numbers, but it was a season where there was ALWAYS something real in the medium range. My goodness what a beautiful winter.

Posting just so you can look at my avatar again.

High of 40.4° here

I really hope I am. I think that we get very few big dog opportunities that appear yearly, and this weekend storm was one of them. Assuming that dropped a foot, there’s a huge difference heading into the final 1/3 of January with ~16” (36% of climo) vs 4” (8%). I do think we’ll get snow, but I’m highly skeptical it’ll be a double digit one (imby). Edit: I’ll throw a number out too. I think I see 22-27” between now and the end of March. That’d put me between 26-31” on the season.

I’m 100% out and here is what I mean. I won’t turn my nose at cold and snow. Any time flakes fall it’s something to be grateful for. You never know when it’ll be the last time you enjoy snow. I will be here and engage with people (maybe a little less but still here) but in my heart I know that another well below normal season imby is close to a lock. I totally respect the idea that the future is always uncertain, there’s plenty of time left, the pattern looking ahead is good etc., but I simply do not believe that I will see approximately 40-45” of snow between now and March 15 to bring me to normal. Aside from my slow burn the last few days I won’t be crapping up threads whenever there is something to track. I don’t cancel winter lightly. I want to be wrong. I’m pretty sure I’m not.

Patience gone. We out. I do like to see the cold linger for once. We just need as many swings as possible. Better to bat .100 on many opportunities than few.

It’s great to have the cold. I’d love meaningful snow to go with it.

The models to all of SNE once we thought there was hope for a storm. Everyone knows where I stand. Nothing else to add.

Always ten days away

I’ll pay for this miracle for the next decade.

That’s winter of yore stuff here

Going from 0 in January to 6” in February won’t do much for me

I see that already when I drive from here to any town to my north, south, and east. The neighbors can pay for their own snow.