It's straight stupid how anomolous the current 28°C isotherm is across the MDR. I always pay more attention to that as it's really the harbringer of major hurricane potential. As soon as the upper atmosphere begins to settle into more of a late Summer / July pattern combined with La Niña and weakening trades, I fully expect an early onset of CV ASO+ and a hyperactive season.
Totally agree. 2024 has been in a class of its own so far. I also think the SSTA distribution makes it less likely for stability issues in the MDR? Seems like a good +AMO setup. What’s another year with the classic horseshoe distribution?
From Andy Hazelton:
29C for May 14 is just off the charts absurd.
I’m guessing it’ll be mostly straight line winds. I think there was one TDS near Houston. Basically a cat 1 rolled through the region. Interesting how the actual obs sites had lower reported gusts.
Phil ripping glass out of skyscrapers type stuff. Insane.
Funny enough, in a TWC segment yesterday on the technology now available for hurricane recon, one of the scientists mentioned how the concept behind “Dorothy” is now more real than ever with sail drones and such.
This weekend is probably the greatest example of why I chase. If I leave it to luck I’ll get screwed every time. A literal global celestial event and I ended up in a place with overcast.
It’s always the ones you miss…
Apparently supposed to continue through at least Sunday. I don’t remember 2003 but if that holds true this seems like a pretty long duration event. My best chance would probably be Sunday night. Not sure if the X5.8 is directed toward Earth.
With me being away from home the better part of two weeks it’s probably early growth forest at this point. Backyard grows like crazy with a constant water supply from my hill.