WxWatcher007

This might be one of the very worst forecasts I’ve ever attempted

It’s still really far out. Worth a casual eye though.

Likely standard Euro too. Don’t need to know the nuances—it’s impossible at this range—just that something is there.

Isaias was a big hit, at least here. Joaquin is an all timer

I can't imagine the NHC will wait too much longer before tagging the newest wave given the signal across guidance, but with 96L "underperforming" (great call @Newman) we see how a model signal can change on a dime in this environment.

Agree about "significant uptick" but the subseasonal environment is getting more favorable. And if you're the kind of person looking for land impacts you probably want only one game in town--or at least widely spaced systems--otherwise you'll likely end up with ridging weaknesses all over for easy recurves. My current thought is that 96L underperforming may actually open the door for a closer approach of the follow up wave because the weakness in the ridging that is going to take 96L away will have the ability to close before the wave leaving Africa can reach it.

It’s a little early for put up or shut up since we’re not even at peak yet, but next week does need to produce something.

This has been an impressive stretch. Got down to 53° here last night. Need something to develop before it can become a threat. A fair amount of wasted potential in an increasingly favorable TC genesis environment so far this month. But next week should be a whole different ballgame with a more favorable environment for the latest wave.

Between this wx and preseason football now going…the itch for fall won’t be too far behind. Maybe when the coming heat wave breaks.

In all seriousness, deep summer is about to make a comeback. The dog days are looking hot.

Complete with the wave train in the Atlantic starting to cook—hot everywhere

I’m not sure, but just last year we had two majors hit Florida in ~10 days of each other.

Not to get on a gatekeeper high horse lol but you can definitely justify a thread and analyze as an experienced poster here. Barry (god love ‘em) starting a thread on anything that swirls with an op that is devoid of original information for readers isn’t helpful imo.

This makes me long for the days of dews talk.

As you know, it used to be the case that we didn’t start threads unless there was an invest or area of interest near a coastline…

It being unable to sustain meaningful convection last night definitely hurt chances imo but I still think it has a chance once it turns NE.

Yeah, but I’m not necessarily tracking for US impacts anymore—more for how TC genesis occurs or not in this case.

The convection was much more limited earlier and also disorganized. I would’ve kept at 40%, but there’s a ribbon of higher shear to the north too that could disrupt things.

The NHC brought this down to 30% but I wouldn't write it off. Guidance gets it going later in the period and right now there's a good amount of low level vorticity in a low wind shear environment. It has some, albeit disorganized, convection. Certainly more than yesterday. I think it's still worth a casual eye. Especially if it can maintain some convection overnight.

Despite the NHC taking the odds of development of the low off the SE coast back down to 30%, there has been some more convection near the center and it is for now at least in a lower shear environment. Homebrew always piques my interest. Meanwhile Dexter continues churning in the open Atlantic and the wave that was tied into the monsoon trough out in the Atlantic is now Invest 96L with some good convection firing--though dry air is evident on satellite just to its north. It looks like our SE coast low helps create a weakness in the Atlantic ridge that keeps that one out to sea. At least for now...

Still looking good for OTS. Goes to show how easily a steering pattern look can flip on a dime.

Yeah for fantasy range it’s slightly interesting. Less the storm than the overall steering pattern, which has looked pretty consistent (thus far) for an EC threat if there’s a wave that can ride into the SW Atlantic.

Another earthquake in northern NJ. 2.7 this time.

Now all that said, you have to get the activity in the first place. The tropical Atlantic, while probably becoming more favorable in the coming days with the MJO change, still isn't a lock for high end activity. There's still work to do with instability. and this is the time of year where SAL still lurks But compared to prior years, this actually doesn't look bad