WxWatcher007

Always believed that muggy was low 60s, humid was mid to upper 60s and oppressive started at 70. Anything 75 and above was uncommon for the region. Idk when people started lowering the standard

The signal looks real with a CAG looking to develop and the EPAC starting to light up, but the AI ensembles not being as robust still gives me pause. Either way, another interesting aspect here is the models all showing the potential for tropical moisture to get carried into at least the southeastern U.S. as a ridge flexes in the western Atlantic and a trough tries to sweep eastward from the central U.S., creating a near ideal conveyor belt for moisture transport. That’s something to watch in its own right, and why I’m a little skeptical of the euro operational burying whatever seedling there is in the Bay of Campeche.

Still a strong difference between the legacy ensembles—which have a growing signal for Gulf development—and the AI ensembles which have a weak signal at best.

True but the ensembles have a strong signal for some sort of genesis inside of ten days. AI less so.

18z doubled down

ENH for Philly lol

Waiting for my first severe day up here

The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster.

Eastern Mass would lose its mind

What I would give for something like this.

Development signals continue on guidance today.

We will see if the signal becomes more consistent in the coming days, but today was really the first where we saw a stronger signal for TC genesis in the Gulf across operational and ensemble guidance near that mid-month window.

Going with 9/4/2

Models are starting to light up in the EPAC I’m the coming days. A fast start seems increasingly likely there.

I take great pride in not using pesticides on my property but two years ago I nuked the Knotwood along my property line and after a dormant year it has just exploded in that same zone. I hacked at it and left the remnants in the sun to bake, but it's concerning. I have several invasive species on the edge of the property, but that is by far the worst. See above. Sometimes I feel like not using the chemicals just allows the invasive stuff expand but I have good biodiversity (I think) on my patch of land than neighbors. I'm very excited to see how the firefly population looks this year imby.