WxWatcher007

Bullseye right over mby. There’s a 0.0% chance of that happening.

Very hard to buy the GFS when ensembles across the board go the opposite direction.

It’s unreal how I’m getting skipped over. Unreal.

Yes.

We agree. Though anomalous OHC ups the ante if the atmosphere is willing to cooperate. The stability in the tropical Atlantic has been a common feature this decade, and deserves a lot more attention. It was horrendous last season after making real strides in previous years. AI ensembles quickly proving their worth in identifying windows for TC genesis and surpassing the GFS.

Seasons in seasons. What I love about NE is we have four distinct seasons. It’s a great reminder that time always marches on, and we should enjoy what we have. The days are getting shorter and soon climo will be such that summer fades to fall, but that also means fall foliage, peak tropical, and different wx.

This site has some great stuff I use all the time: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/basins.html?basin=al-24 The year over year shear is something Lowry does. Wish I knew how. His data visualization stuff is great. A lot of good stuff here too: https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/products.html

It might be climo, but even in our worst years there are still windows that open up. The problem this season is that you have numerous hurdles that are much higher than normal due to our strengthening Nino. Not only are MDR SSTa numbers pretty cool, but there's not the same level of OHC that you'd normally expect heading into the climatological peak, even in the Caribbean. That SSTa look above also raises an issue that has been wrecking the MDR throughout the 2020s, subsidence and stability. That warmth in the subtropics screams stability issues. Even in recent hot years, it's taken a lot of effort in the peak season to offset repeated dry air and stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. Alarm bells are already going off with instability well below normal again in the MDR. Dust so far has been near average, so seeing this lack of stability above even with relatively normal dust conditions is a red flag. Then you have shear, which we all know is worse across much of the basin in a Nino year. Well, the graveyard is extra barren right now with an ugly shear look. The images below come from Michael Lowry, who does some awesome tropical work. Shear should drop as we move into better climo, but if we see persistent TUTTs across the basin it's going to be hard to get much activity going, let alone anything high end. So, it's going to be hard. Waves that survive being suffocated by stability may very well get decapitated by shear as they try to get into the Caribbean. Homebrew, especially in the subtropics region well off the East Coast or north of the Antilles seems to be the only way we have decent development this season, which fits strong Nino years.

Something will pop in the subtropics eventually, but this ain’t it. Today was actually the first day I started thinking about my annual peak season forecast. It’ll be a dead basin this season, but how dead is TBD.

Could be trouble in that area in Danbury and points south.

I had to complain hard. Picked up 1.13" in about 50 minutes. Haha my site is rarely ever the highest rainfall or highest temperature in town. I track very close to HFD, which is only a few miles away. I do well with rad cooling though.

Awful. Only .05 yesterday

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