WxWatcher007

Yeah, if there are breaks in shear in the homebrew region (a big if), homebrew is likely the best chance at tropical genesis.

I was about ten degrees warmer than you at that time yesterday, and got up to around 55 once the sun broke out yesterday afternoon. Impressive nonetheless. Cold cold late May day.

Not everybody got in on the same level of action but that’s tropical. Not taking anything away from the eastern New England area that got rocked. Approaching 35 years without a strike now…

Down to 36.4° at WXW1. That’s damn impressive for late May here.

It wasn’t high end regionally, but it was good enough for some excitement. That’s going to be hard to come by this season. I have extremely low expectations in the basin this season.

Ironically, while all that was happening I was at the science center here with my niece.

That is a really really rough look for the Atlantic and MDR especially. Stability/subsidence is going to be a massive issue in the tropical Atlantic this year.

Boom boom https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2026/05/30/boom-heard-boston-massachusetts-social-media/?p1=hp_primary

Still thinking mid-June has a chance for tropical.

I’ll take a Bob redux, please and thank you.

Breezy breezy

I posted a few days ago elsewhere that I thought the window would open around mid-June. We certainly do see models rushing the favorable window sometimes, especially early in the season. Hard to believe we’re almost near the official start of the season.

Might be a little rough out that way, but I think we're going to be mostly fine here. Honestly, just seeing daylight later and later is great. Summer is awesome.

Faker than an SGA foul call but the season is upon us…

Almost time for me to end my tropical hibernation lol. At the very least the SE should get come much needed rain in the coming weeks. The operational GFS is doing its usual nonsense but the ensemble signal on the GEFS/EPS should raise an eyebrow. This is a good early season test for AI models like the GDM on whether it can accurately sniff out these marginal early season signals/false alarms.