WxWatcher007

And until last winter, they were challenging some of us for seasonal snow

Numerous tornado warnings back in PA lol.

For those still watching, the last two Euro runs do something very weird with our area of interest. It tries to organize it well inland and treks it across the south. Can't say I've seen that before lol. Still a chance for some marginal development later in the week as a front tries to get involved in the NW Gulf.

Looks like it's about to pour up at WXW2.

Saw the announcement when it happened. Congrats! Will push some local friends y'all way. How is the network paid for? State funding?

I'd take the high res depictions in a heartbeat. 3k and HRRR looked juicy overnight.

Gorgeous day

Absolutely sick of missing storms here in Death Valley but at least we got a beautiful sunset out of it. More fireflies are out tonight as well.

New England climo

Time for the first analysis of the 2026 season. As @nw baltimore wx notes, our area of interest, which was the first lemon of the season deep in the Bay of Campeche, is now a banana, which scrapes the western Gulf. 1. Western Gulf: A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. You can see below that we have a broad area of spin, and in the Bay of Campeche, where the concave nature of the coastline allows for consolidation of vorticity, this may be a favorable factor that's now being picked up by the AI models--which have frankly outperformed the legacy models recently. Aside from being buried currently in the geographically favorable BoC, the conditions for tropical genesis look marginal. SSTs are fine, but they're marginal. Nothing too surprising for this time of year. Wind shear currently isn't an issue, but upper level winds do not look favorable outside of a small window, with a huge ribbon of high shear across the Gulf and through the Caribbean and Atlantic. That said, you don't need much for marginal development this time of year, and while the legacy models (GFS/Euro and their ensembles) were bullish earlier on central/eastern Gulf development that ended up being wrong, with AI so far winning out on the possible zone of development. While the legacy ensembles quickly bury this broad low in Mexico and crucially--keep it there. The AI models pick up the low before it gets too far inland. That keeps the window open for development as it curves around the western Gulf. Note the difference between the EPS and AI EPS! Google DeepMind, which I believe performed the best in highlighting tropical genesis signals last season, is starting to show more interest in this idea as well. This one has a chance for some marginal development, if it can stay offshore for an extended period of time. Either way, this continues to highlight the signal I've mentioned before for heavy rain in the southeast.

LGA G69 on that latest thunderstorm

A little concerned that I only saw two fireflies in my backyard tonight. Hopefully they’re just early.

We’d take

Can’t wait for the good stuff to hit up here, but today was pretty nice.