WxWatcher007

All about location. Been a beautiful weekend here in EH. Only a quick .04” here yesterday. 63/57 currently 54/49 at WXW2

I still think there will be life in the Atlantic eventually. But it’s going to be a while and the windows will be narrow—geographically and time wise.

@40/70 Benchmark do you think the current volcanic eruption will impact things at all?

It's really interesting to see the strides made by AI guidance in recent years. We'll see if that continues into this winter. As I remember it, AI ensembles were great least year when legacy guidance was too quick to kick our coastal events out to sea.

And 500mb

My God, the GFS.

The AMO is SO important. People really do forget how the Atlantic can vary for decades at a time! Doesn’t mean we can’t get a big event during a “lull” but of all the areas where you really need to care about the longer historical record, tropical is it. I’ll also just note, this is an extremely impressive season so far—it just happens to be on the other side of the activity spectrum. To have this little ACE, this deep into the general climatological peak in the Atlantic, it’s really something to behold.

What a year in Hawaii

I'm going to take the over on that. Way over.

That's where my head is at too. I was once ready to totally write off winter, but I think AN precip while we struggle with the battle zone for temps in southern and maybe central NE is going to be the theme of the season. And that can work out very well, but I'm guessing we need less of that fast flow crap and more active STJ. Problem with the stalled front is that way more often than not they just carry whatever develops OTS. Speaking my language. Hybrid would work just fine.

For CT at least, July 4th was a pretty big widespread severe event day. Otherwise, pretty much crickets. It's not that it's quiet, it's that north south and west of us have had big years. Hell, even the fish have seen better storms than some of us. Going to need a lot more than warm SSTs for something off the coast. Tropical waves can't get to the western Atlantic because shear is absolutely obliterating them. Dolly formed, ran into a buzzsaw, and even when it found a favorable environment off the SE coast it couldn't do anything because there was nothing left. Going to need either a well-timed wave to make it through the gauntlet into the Bahamas late September or a CAG system yanked north in October. Anything popping off a stalled front is just going to pass well OTS. 20-30 years of a quiet(er) Atlantic...

But hey at least we’ll get some cute cumulus clouds and pop up showers this weekend

Yes, with the 2017-24 period being extraordinarily brutal, especially in the Gulf. That said, even if the peak is quiet the downside of that slope still brings plenty of activity normally. I don’t anticipate that here but I still think we get a few hurricanes in the basin. Most likely in the subtropics or something.