schoeppeya

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

@WaryWarren’s response would indicate to me that you do have to spend a couple grand per month in rent in TX.

BIL lives in downtown Dallas and pays around a grand for rent, don’t know what Austin is like. I know it’s 3-4 times that in LA/SF/NYC. 

10 minutes ago, WaryWarren said:

Real estate is insane everywhere right now, even in an ugly, boring place like Rochester, MN. My gf's sister lives in Austin and sends us these hilarious real estate listings. This one will probably sell for $1.1-1.2 million. Anything that gets listed in Austin receives over a hundred offers in just a few days. Most will be under contract within 48 hours, with the inspection waived (same is true in MN!). People will bid $50-100,000 over list and write a letter to the seller/agent explaining their educational and professional achievements.

https://www.redfin.com/TX/Austin/1119-1-2-Gunter-St-78702/home/31375308

It was like that in Edmond, Ok, last year and is like that here in Carmel, In area this year. Wife and I have resigned to not buying a house until things come back to reality. They always do.

31 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Climate and taxes maybe, but I’d be surprised if the “talent pool” is any better in a place like Texas or Florida than, say, New York or California. It might not be significantly worse either, but those two states aren’t exactly known for superior education. (Of course, it’s also industry dependent.)

Those things you mentioned make it a lot easier to attract talent. Makes it a lot more attractive when you don’t have to spend a couple grand in month in rent, as well.

13 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

You’re probably right. There are a lot of people whose entire identity is “I go to the gym a lot” and I would guess that a lot of them have similar political views.

Nothing wrong with that just like there's nothing wrong with anyone identifying with any of their other (healthy) hobbies. The bolded is quite the generalization.

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Would it? It would stand to reason that most people who go to the gym are health conscious and would be more likely than average to get vaccinated, so I don’t think they would lose a huge percentage of their customers.

I think there’s a lot of gym goers that would place themselves in the “healthy and don’t need a vaccine” category. No evidence to back any of this up so it’s just our opinions, really. But I wouldn’t be the business trying it in the gym industry. They charge monthly for memberships, so you’re talking about charging people for a service the gym then wouldn’t let them use. 

15 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Sorry, I missed it. Seems like the source is one that could have an agenda (though not necessarily), but it almost reads similarly to, say, if BP published findings that climate change isn’t occurring.

That said, yes, going to the gym vs. working out at home can be very beneficial to some people. But I would put gyms on the list of places where a vaccine passport would be acceptable to me. Then no one is saying people who want to go to the gym can’t go, they just need to get the vaccine first. It’s not hard.

Eh to me it’s one of those things that people have been doing for almost a year now anyways, doesn’t make sense to require one now. 
 

And, from a business perspective, it would be a terrible decision. 

50 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Source?

Posted one above 

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I understand that, and I am glad for that for you too.  It won't be much longer hopefully before things get closer to normal.

https://www.ihrsa.org/about/media-center/press-releases/global-data-show-covid-19-transmission-in-gyms-is-rare/

The darkest part of Covid for me was the first month or so when gyms were completely shut down. It's been my primary coping mechanism in the four years since I have quit drinking. 

And just to be completely honest, even if I knew there was a high chance I would catch Covid there, I would still go. I am more scared of the health consequences (mental and physical both) from not having that release than I am of Covid.

12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

My question, why can't you work out at home? I have to imagine you have a weight set at home and if you are running/calisthenics you can do this in your yard or at a local park. I just don't understand the need to physically be in a gym.

Gym equipment is expensive as hell. And, personally, there’s something mentally for me that changes at the gym vs being at home. Studies have shown gyms don’t contribute much to the spread.

16 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

If my appeal to common sense and anecdotes didn't have any effect (seems like anecdotes are better than data on the internet)

How about you consider some evidence from observational studies. 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768533

How about the data in the non hospital setting?

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

It is admittedly hard to study this stuff because it's all observational which means there will always be significant confounding variables and messy data. But in this case common sense and the data are both lining up and showing the same thing.  Masks aren't a panacea but they are an effective tool in reducing transmission when worn properly and in the right circumstances where risk of spread is high. 

I cant wait til some real mask studies come out on their effectiveness. I personally think there's a lot of correlating factors more responsible for the declines but like many others have said, they are zero cost and even if they reduce transmission by 1% its probably worth it. 

Can we not do the dirty mask thing for the 50th time?

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Based on who has been vaccinated the most so far, you could make an argument that a vaccine passport is racist.  Others can make that argument if they want.  I mean, we still have a sizable chunk of white America that hasn't been vaccinated either.

When vaccine passports become racist, we will have officially come full circle in politics. 

I was listening to a podcast last week (Jocko) that was making the argument that mob politics eventually burn themselves out because at some point even the leadership of the mob starts getting accused of whatever the mob is supporting. 

Just now, TimB84 said:

Yes.

Who?

10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

“Unvaccinated” is not a characteristic. It’s a choice.

And I’ll double down on what I said last night after a few drinks, except now I’m completely sober: if Ron DeSantis helps guide your thinking on any topic, we are on two completely different wavelengths and it is impossible to find common ground.

Honest question, is there any republican you wouldnt say that about?

21 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Again, business owners should be allowed to make this decision on their own. Maybe the government shouldn’t mandate it (but I’m okay if they do), but the government also shouldn’t prevent individual business owners from making this choice. The Arizona one looks especially problematic in this respect. I won’t put another dime into any state’s economy that passes a bill that bars businesses from refusing service to the unvaccinated.

Actually agree. Although, it is on my side of the bias so it bothers me a lot less than if they required a vaccine passport. 

13 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Not sure if there’s any argument against it, but does anything in this country, regardless of which party is in power, get done according to common sense?

I was surprised their response was "we will consider it".

14 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Is there any argument not to surge vaccination supplies to hotspots? That seems like something that’s “common sense”. 

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Are they though?  I bet they are no better than middle of the pack when looking at numbers per capita.  Florida has started to go back up after mid March.  Whether it is spring break or something else, who knows. 

Isn’t that the point though? If the more open states (Florida and Texas) are faring the same as the most locked down states (California and New York), doesn’t that make the case that states should be more open? 

Just now, Chambana said:

I say we just keep the country locked down forever, keep printing trillions upon trillions, and never let children have in person learning ever again. What could go wrong? 

Careful, you’ll have a lot of takers here

3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

These articles are a little misleading. It says hospitalizations under 40 have only gone up by three percent-that could be one or two cases more than before.

11 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Well this state is putting the onus on student athletics for one, but athletics isn't going to be the main spreader there aren't that many athletes and schooling opened back up at the beginning of March here for everyone in state. It is only logical that the schools would have causes the explosion as it was the variable that was most dramatically changed. I know other states have opened up as well but they were more paced, it was a band-aid being ripped off here and we were one of the most protective for the longest time thus it didn't naturally spread as much as it would have in other states.

Believe it or not... I buy this lol. Not necessarily from the kids maybe but just and general increase of activity resulting from kids being back in school. 

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Based upon per capita, there is barely any testing compared to other age groups and I even specified that the testing that does happens, usually happens after parents get covid themselves.

Most people go get tested when someone they’ve been around has shown symptoms or tested positive regardless of age. 

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

If it is causing massive amounts of spreading, absolutely. Why on earth would you want to keep it going?

https://www.athleticbusiness.com/athlete-safety/study-high-school-sports-have-not-spread-covid-19.html

Ive seen the evidence where outbreaks are traced back to sporting events, but this is literally the only study I could find. It’s well proven that sunlight exposure kills covid fairly quickly, so I could see an issue with indoor sports (I saw hockey was one of the sports at issue) but am not sure outdoor sports should be discouraged with precautions.

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

But that doesn't mean they don't carry and spread it, which can then be spread at home to adults and voila, Michigan.

You said there was barely any testing for kids. My response was to show thats not true. 

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Cool, they make up 24% of the population, thus much less testing per capita than adults/elderly.

Considering they’re much less likely to show symptoms, that makes a lot of sense.

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

See but again we don't know this and are assuming a lot because these kids who may be silent spreaders aren't being tested. Really the only cases you hear of kids being tested is after the parents get it or athletics. In this state they are blaming school athletics but don't want to blame the schools themselves, makes no sense at all.

You want to end athletics even though that’s where they are actually getting tested? Again, actual evidence shows there’s plenty of testing done on kids.